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A few good wins get you in our latest NCAA tournament projections

Jan 24, 2011, 1:00 PM EDT

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There’s a lot of good news in Pittsburgh these days: the Steelers are headed to another Super Bowl, and – more important for hoops fans – the Panthers are leading the Big East and back on pace for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Our latest bracket projection has Pittsburgh as No. 1 in the East with trips through Cleveland and Newark.  Ohio State remains the top overall seed and No. 1 in the Southeast.  It’ll be interesting to see if the Buckeyes end up East or Southeast should the current projection move forward.  Duke and Kansas are the other No. 1 seeds.  Close behind our two-seeds Connecticut, Texas, San Diego State, and Syracuse.

As we noted in our Bubble Preview, there is a large group around the cutline.  Bubble Banter officially returns on February 1.  On that note, the Big 12 is very bunched.  Oklahoma State, Baylor, Colorado, and Kansas State are all on the bubble.  This week, KSU squeezes in a single spot above Marquette to avoid being among the Last 5 In.  The Wildcats get the nod based on a superior strength of schedule.  How these teams separate will be important to watch over the next few weeks.  Safe to say, there are a lot of teams who will play their way “in” and/or “out” during February.

If you had to pick a Game of the Week, how about San Diego State at BYU?  Can either earn a No. 1 seed? The short answer is yes, obviously.  But it will probably require an outright  Mountain West regular-season title.  What happens at the top of the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC will matter, too.  Duke, for example, figures to post a gaudy record in the ACC.  We’ll see. 

Rebounds always welcome.  Follow along at Bracketville.

UPDATED: Monday, January 24 | Records reflect Division I games only – through January 24.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected conference champion for this bracket. Exceptions are made for those teams that traditionally use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc).

NOTE: In the new 68-team format you will notice two pairing games that represent the First Four pairings. In this bracket the First Four games in Dayton would be … UCLA vs. South Carolina | Penn Sate vs. Wichita State | Texas Southern vs. McNeese State | Austin Peay vs. Long Beach. The final four at-large teams are paired along with the teams seeded 65-68 on the S-curve. The matchups are indicated in the bracket below.

Next Update: Monday, January 31.

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTNewark   SOUTHEASTNew Orleans
Cleveland   Cleveland
1) PITTSBURGH (19-2)   1) OHIO STATE (20-0)
16) LONG ISLAND (14-5)     16) AUSTIN PEAY / LONG BEACH
8 UNLV (15-5)   8 Florida State (15-5)
9) Virginia Tech (13-5)   9) MISSOURI STATE (16-4)
     
Tampa   Chicago
5) Florida (15-4)   5) Vanderbilt (14-4)
12) VCU (15-5)   12) MEMPHIS (15-4)
4) Wisconsin (15-4)   4) Notre Dame (17-4)
13) CHARLESTON (14-6)   13) OAKLAND (13-8)
     
Charlotte   Denver
6) West Virginia (13-5)   6) Tennessee (12-7)
11) Penn State / Wichita State   11) Kansas State (12-7)
3) KENTUCKY (15-4)   3) BYU (17-1)
14) BUCKNELL (14-7)   14) FAIRFIELD (15-4)
     
Tulsa   Washington, DC
7) Georgetown (14-5)   7) Temple (13-5)
10) Arizona (16-4)   10) Boston College (14-6)
2) Texas (16-3)   2) Connecticut (16-2)
15) BALL STATE (12-3)   15) FLORIDA ATLANTIC (13-6)
     
SOUTHWEST – San Antonio   WEST – Anaheim
Charlotte   Tulsa
1) DUKE (18-1)   1) KANSAS (18-1)
16) HAMPTON (14-4)   16) McNEESE ST / TX SOUTHERN
8 Cincinnati (17-3)   8 North Carolina (13-5)
9) ST. MARY’S (14-3)   9) St. John’s (11-7)
     
Denver   Chicago
5) Minnesota (15-4)   5) WASHINGTON (15-4)
12) UCLA / South Carolina   12) CLEVELAND STATE (16-3)
4) Missouri (16-3)   4) Purdue (17-3)
13) UTAH STATE (18-2)   13) BELMONT (18-3)
     
Tucson   Tampa
6) Michigan State (11-7)   6) Illinois (14-6)
11) Marquette (13-7)   11) XAVIER (13-5)
3) Texas AM (16-2)   3) Villanova (17-2)
14) PRINCETON (11-4)   14) COASTAL CAROLINA (14-2)
     
Washington, DC   Tucson
7) Georgia (14-4)   7) Louisville (15-4)
10) Washington State (14-6)   10) Gonzaga (12-7)
2) Syracuse (18-2)   2) SAN DIEGO STATE (18-0)
15) MAINE (11-7)   15) NORTHERN COLORADO (9-7)

NOTES on the BRACKET: Ohio State is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Pittsburgh, Duke, and Kansas. The two seeds in order are Connecticut, Texas, San Diego State, Syracuse

Last Five teams in (at large): Marquette, Penn State, UCLA, South Carolina, Wichita State

First Five teams out (at large): Oklahoma State, Baylor, Colorado, Butler, Old Dominion

Also Considered: Richmond, Central Florida, Duquesne, Dayton, Colorado State, Maryland, Miami-FL, George Mason, Southern Mississippi, UTEP

Bracket adjustments: The First Four matchup of Penn State/Wichita State (East) moves up to the No. 11 line to avoid a conference conflict and Memphis drops to the 12-seed in the Southeast.

Here is the team breakdown by Conference …

Big East (11): PITTSBURGH, Connecticut, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville, Cincinnati, St. John’s, Marquette

Big Ten (7): OHIO STATE, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State

SEC (6): KENTUCKY, Vanderbilt, Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina

ACC (5): DUKE, North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State

Big 12 (5): KANSAS, Texas, Texas AM, Missouri, Kansas State

Pac 10 (4): WASHINGTON, Arizona, Washington State, UCLA

Mountain West (3): SAN DIEGO STATE, BYU, UNLV

Missouri Valley (2): MISSOURI STATE, Wichita State

West Coast (2): ST. MARY’S, Gonzaga

Atlantic 10 (2): XAVIER, Temple

Conference USA (1): MEMPHIS

Colonial (1): VCU

Horizon (1): CLEVELAND STATE

Auto Bid conference champions … Utah State (WAC), Austin Peay (OVC), Fairfield (MAAC), Ball State (MAC), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Charleston (Southern), Oakland (Summit), Long Beach (Big West), Long Island (NEC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt), Princeton (Ivy), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Hampton (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), Vermont (America East), McNeese State (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC)

  1. smokehouse56 - Jan 25, 2011 at 9:30 AM

    I find it stramge how you continue to ride your reputation on ‘Cuse. Hell, Villanova beat them by 10 on AT Syracuse and you have them ranked below them. Your stuff looks like the BCS rankings. Penn State will make the tourney on their own and not as a play in. They are solid and have the best player in the Big 10 right now.

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