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Duke has issues, but not the ones we’ve been talking about

Jan 5, 2012, 1:16 AM EDT

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I’ve never taken much stock in the top 25 polls.

Why?

There are too many people with votes that have no clue what they are talking about and far too many decisions are made strictly based the last time a team lost. Ohio State lost by four on the road against a top 15 team that had already beaten then-No. 1 Kentucky at home and they drop from No. 2 in the country to No. 7?

No.

Sorry.

That just doesn’t make any sense. There is so much more that goes into the strength of a team beyond the simple wins and losses — Where was the game played? How good is that team on the road/at home? Was it a bad stylistic matchup? Did someone get in foul trouble? — that it takes more than just the skimming of box scores to understand how teams stack up. The outcome of one game shouldn’t necessarily change your opinion of a given team.

Now do you see why Gary Parrish has had such sustained success with the Poll Attacks?

It is that lose-and-you-drop, win-and-you-move-up attitude that has allowed teams like Louisville and Duke to climb into the top five this season when neither are top five teams. Cardinal fans had that realization last week, as they were beaten by Georgetown at home and the dropped by Kentucky at Rupp. Could No. 3 Duke’s 78-73 loss at Temple on Wednesday night be the result that bring the Blue Devils back down to earth?

I think so.

Duke is a flawed basketball team this season, but I think the reasons are different than what has been discussed on the blogs and message boards to date.

There have been two major criticisms of the Blue Devils through the first two months of the season. The biggest involves everyones favorite family of seven footers — the Plumlees. Coming into the season, Mason and Miles (Marshall is redshirting) were thought to be too soft in the middle for the Blue Devils to be able to compete with some of the other premiere programs across the country. Kentucky has Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones. Ohio State has Jared Sullinger. Baylor has a squadron of redwoods along their front line. UConn, Syracuse, North Carolina.

The one thing all those programs have is common is talented front lines with guys that will eventually be sitting in the Green Room at an NBA Draft. There aren’t many draft experts that would throw Duke in with those teams.

But so far this season, Mason Plumlee has been very good. He needs to get better from the foul line, but other than that, Mason has pretty much done what we all have asked of him: he’s rebounding the ball, he’s blocking shots and he’s made himself a presence in the paint on both ends of the floor.

Over the last six games, Miles has been almost as effective. During that stretch, he is averaging 9.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg and 2.8 bpg while shooting 74.2% from the floor in just 20.7 mpg. That’s pretty good for a back-up center. While the Plumlees are still a far cry from being elite big men, they are certainly better than they were given credit for early in the season.

The other major criticism involved Austin Rivers and his decision-making. Frankly, that was completely justified early in the season, but Rivers is starting to learn. His shot selection has gotten better and he’s making fewer dumb plays. You don’t want to take away all of his aggressiveness — that confidence that he can make any and every shot he takes is what makes him such a dangerous scorer — but teaching him to channel that aggressiveness and learn when to pick his spots is what will make Rivers reach his potential, and he’s starting to figure that out.

The way I see it, Duke’s biggest problem is that they lack playmakers and that they are a poor defensive team.

Think about it: who on the Blue Devils roster scares you in a 1-on-1 situation? Austin Rivers, yes. But Seth Curry is a jump shooter than can handle the ball. Andre Dawkins is a jump shooter that can’t handle the ball. Ty Thornton is a defender. Quinn Cook is a freshman. There simply isn’t enough raw talent and explosive scoring ability on the roster.

Defense is an even bigger problem. Curry, Dawkins and Rivers are all fairly poor defenders that lack the lateral quickness to stay in front of good players. Thornton can lock up at that end of the floor, but he’s a liability on the offensive end. The Owls exposed that perimeter defense, penetrating at will and creating open three after open three in the second half.

Duke has played two true road games this season. They were mollywhopped by 22 point when they went to Columbus to take on Ohio State and followed that up with a loss in Philly to a Temple team that has been thoroughly mediocre and is playing without their best big man in Michael Eric. They beat Michigan State in Madison Square Garden — which is always a pro-Duke environment unless they are playing a Big East team — before the Spartans hit their stride. They beat Washington in a game that was played in the Garden at 9am pacific time.

Hell, even their win over Kansas was aided by a Thornton travel that went uncalled.

Duke has had some impressive victories, yes, but when taken in context, their schedule is probably not quite what its made up to be.

My intent is not to say that the Blue Devils are a bad basketball team, because they aren’t. There is enough talent on this team — and the ACC is bad enough — that the Blue Devils are going to end up finishing second (at worst) in the conference. There are going to win 27 or 28 games. They are going to end up being, at worst, a three seed.

This is one of the top ten teams in the country.

But like Louisville, you cannot put Duke in the same sentence as the Kentucky’s, Syracuse’s and UNC’s of the world, at least not yet.

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @ballinisahabit.

  1. Chris Fiorentino - Jan 5, 2012 at 9:02 AM

    Does anyone still care about the polls in College Basketball? I thought it was RPI and Selection Sunday that was really all that mattered for the most part? It’s really the media and the TV stations that are showing the games that really promote and over-hype the polls. The only ranking that matters in College Hoops is your seed in your bracket in the Tourney.

  2. bigpapifromrahchacha - Jan 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

    I agree with your current assessment of the Duke basketball. There are flaws with this team. But realistically every college team has flaws. The difference is that Coach K does what his title implies, he coaches. His team will improve between now and the NCAA tournament in March. This Duke team will no be what it is now. For proof look at the 2010 National Championship team. They had flaws but through good instruction from one of the best if not the best coaching staff, and always playing the most competitive schedule in NCAA basketball.
    The time to do an evaluation of a team is at the end of the year. Then we will judge the full body of work. Then we can say whether a team has been coached and then learned to fix their shortcomings. Some teams will not show improvement through the course of a season, but I can confidently say Duke will be better at the end because that is how they are trained, rise at right time.

  3. kellyandpeanut - Jan 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

    I am a Duke fan but I admit there was a travel. But Curry traveled, not Tyler.

  4. kellyandpeanut - Jan 5, 2012 at 11:52 AM

    And it makes it terrible to try to look at ranking when the AP and Coaches always show my team as different numbers. One minute you think you are 5 then you see them at 3. The lower the # the less pressure.

  5. astrozac - Jan 6, 2012 at 1:11 AM

    Bigpapi, I think Rob is just showing the flaws that are preventing them from being on the top handful of teams in the country. They’re close, but I agree with his two big problems for the most part. I think with the right tweaking with the rotation this team could challenge, but still be in better shape next year for a title run even if Rivers leaves.

    Playmakers? I think Quinn Cook could be one and you already mentioned Mason Plumlee who was great against Ohio State. Duke had the same problem last year, in that if they couldn’t get the threes they got in trouble. But Rivers and Cook I think have the ability to drive to the hoop and start opening stuff up for other guys, especially with Plumlee being a threat inside

    Playing a three guard lineup they lack that athletic midsize guy(6’5 to 6’7) that help clamp down on defense and on the offensive side too. Gbinije is the only guy they have that fits that mold on the roster and he’s the last man off the bench.
    Rivers I think is a better defender that you give him credit for and Ryan Kelly is scrappy and a hustler on the defensive end. But you’re right in that either Dawkins or Curry really need to step it up elsewhere to not be so one dimensional.

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