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Latest NCAA tourney projections kind to Kansas, not Ohio St.

Feb 27, 2012, 6:56 PM EDT

spt-120227-trob AP

After a somewhat bumpy weekend, not a lot has changed from Saturday.  Kentucky (South), Syracuse (East), Michigan State (Midwest), and Kansas (West) remain No. 1 seeds.  Ohio State’s home loss to Wisconsin drops the Buckeyes to No. 8 on the s-curve.  That means the Buckeyes are one spot from falling to a No. 3 seed.  Baylor, Marquette, and Georgetown are all in play for OSU’s spot heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Duke is next in line for a one-seed, and does hold tie-breaker advantages over both MSU and KU thanks to head-to-head victories.  As we noted Saturday, however, the Spartans and Jayhawks both have outright leads in the Big Ten and Big 12.  Although Duke won the its initial matchup with North Carolina, the Blue Devils and Tar Heels are tied for the ACC lead.

Overall, we have just two changes to today’s bracket – plus some minor seeding adjustments.  Colorado State and Arizona slide out.  St. Joseph’s and Northwestern move in and join the First Four groupings in Dayton.  In Arizona’s case, the Wildcats were simply passed on the s-curve. Barely beating UCLA at home wasn’t enough help. UA hold its final at-large position.  Colorado State lost at San Diego State.  Not a bad loss, but it drops the Rams to 2-9 on the road.  St. Joseph’s (Creighton) and Northwestern (Seton Hall) also have better out-of-conference wins than CSU.

The margins separating these teams – along with several others – are very thin.  Expect this give and take to continue until someone plays their way in, or more likely, out.  Among those considered for the final spots, Northwestern was the only team without a sub-100 RPI loss.  In fact, all but two of the Wildcats’ losses have come to Top 40 RPI teams.  That alone won’t carry NW into the NCAAs, but it’s enough to give them a slight edge today.  Compared side-by-side, Northwestern has six (6) Top 100 wins while Miami has three (3).  That and a higher strength of schedule gives the Wildcats a small edge on the Hurricanes.

You’ll notice that both First Four winners are slotted into 11-seed locations.  As one at-large First Four game will be played Tuesday and one Wednesday, the Selection Committee will try to locate one to a Thursday-Saturday site and one to a Friday-Sunday site.  That is replicated here.  The only way that could be accomplished within the current bracket was to send them to Louisville and Columbus (plus both are close for travel from Dayton).  Washington and Southern Mississippi fall to the 12-seed line by virtue of the procedural bump.

March is three days away.  Enjoy the hoops.

UPDATED: Monday, Feb. 27

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Dayton (18-10) vs. Texas (18-11) | West Region
  • St. Joseph’s (19-11) vs. Northwestern (17-11) | Midwest Region
  • MISS VALLEY ST (17-11) vs. SAVANNAH ST (17-10) | South Region
  • STONY BROOK (18-8) vs. UNC-ASHEVILLE (16-9) | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTBoston SOUTHAtlanta                                      
Pittsburgh Louisville
1) SYRACUSE (29-1) 1) KENTUCKY (28-1)
16) UNC-ASHEVILLE / STONY BROOK 16) MS VALLEY ST / SAVANNAH ST
8) Purdue (19-10) 8) Virginia (21-7)
9) MEMPHIS (21-8) 9) Cincinnati (20-9)
Portland Albuquerque
5) Florida (22-7) 5) UNLV (22-6)
12) BYU (22-7) 12) Xavier (18-10)
4) TEMPLE (22-6) 4) Indiana (22-7)
13) ORAL ROBERTS (26-5) 13) DREXEL (25-5)
Albuquerque Nashville
6) Creighton (25-5) 6) Florida State (19-9)
11) California (23-7) 11) Mississippi State (19-10)
3) Baylor (23-5) 3) Georgetown (20-6)
14) NEVADA (21-5) 14) AKRON (19-9)
Greensboro, N.C. Pittsburgh
7) Gonzaga (23-5) 7) Kansas State (19-9)
10) West Virginia (17-12) 10) St. Louis (21-6)
2) North Carolina (25-4) 2) Ohio State (23-6)
15) VALPARAISO (18-10) 15) BELMONT (23-7)
MIDWEST – St. Louis WEST – Phoenix
Columbus Omaha
1) MICHIGAN STATE (23-5) 1) KANSAS (24-5)
16) LONG ISLAND (22-8) 16) UT-ARLINGTON (20-6)
8) Iowa State (21-8) 8) ST. MARY’S (23-5)
9) Alabama (19-9) 9) Connecticut (17-11)
Portland Nashville
5) Notre Dame (20-9) 5) Louisville (22-7)
12) WASHINGTON (20-8) 12) Southern Mississippi (21-6)
4) WICHITA STATE (25-4) 4) Wisconsin (20-8)
13) LONG BEACH (19-7) 13) IONA (24-6)
Louisville Columbus
6) MURRAY STATE (25-1) 6) Vanderbilt (19-9)
11) St. Joseph’s / Northwestern 11) Dayton / Texas
3) Marquette (24-5) 3) Michigan (20-8)
14) MID TENNESSEE ST (22-5) 14) DAVIDSON (21-7)
Omaha Greensboro
7) San Diego State (20-6) 7) New Mexico (21-6)
10) HARVARD (22-4) 10) Seton Hall (19-10)
2) Missouri (25-4) 2) DUKE (25-4)
15) WEBER STATE (21-4) 15) BUCKNELL (21-8)

 

NOTES on the BRACKET: Kentucky is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Syracuse, Michigan State, and Kansas. Next in line are Duke, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio State

Last Five teams in (at large): Xavier, Dayton, Texas, St. Joseph’s, Northwestern

First Five teams out (at large): Miami (Fla), Colorado State, VCU, South Florida, Arizona

Bracket adjustments: Several one-line adjustments were made to accommodate bracket principles and procedures.

Here is the team breakdown by Conference …

Big East (9): Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

Big Ten (7): Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Northwestern

Big 12 (6): Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Alabama

Atlantic 10 (5): Xavier, St. Louis, Temple, Dayton, St. Joseph’s

ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Florida State

Mountain West (3): UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico

West Coast (3): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, BYU

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Mississippi

Pac 12 (2): Washingon, California

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Conference leaders/champions … Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt), Valparaiso (Horizon), Akron (MAC), Drexel (CAA), Nevada (WAC), Murray State (OVC), Iona (MAAC), Weber State (Big Sky), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Long Beach State (Big West), Long Island (NEC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Harvard (Ivy), NC-Asheville (Big South), Savannah State (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), Stony Brook (America East), UT-Arlington(Southland), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

  1. tomtravis76 - Feb 28, 2012 at 11:32 AM

    So glad this site is up. Now get rid of that Irish Tab, so readers can easily access this site.

    Excited for the First 4 games.

    Could the Maryland Terps make a push for the tourney, if they win out regular season making them 18-12 overall and at least 2 wins in the ACC tourney? Or are their wins just too weak and the losses too great?

    I do like what Turg is doing with that Terps program, his assistants/recruiters are top notch guys in the D-M-V area, who can bring in the talent. And what are the chances Andrew and Aaron Harrison end up in College Park?

  2. passerby23 - Feb 28, 2012 at 4:41 PM

    Murray State as a 6th seed? I get that they are a non-power conference and have looked good racking up wins with a soft-ish schedule, but any team that loses only one game (a close one at that) has got to be more respected than a 6-seed. They beat Dayton, Memphis (on the road), and handled St. Mary’s. You would put UNLV ahead of them? These guys should be no lower than a 4.

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