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Bubble Banter: Now wait begins for Drexel, Iona, others

Mar 6, 2012, 1:03 AM EDT

spt-120305-drexelwaits AP

Several mid-major bubble teams will have long waits until Selection Sunday. These include Iona, Drexel, Oral Roberts, and Middle Tennessee State. All lost in their conference tournaments. We now have 28 projected locks and another six teams that should feel confident. That leaves 29 teams on the bubble for roughly 12 spots. It’s going to be quite a week once the BCS teams being conference tournament play.

Bubble Banter highlights the teams we believe are on the NCAA Bubble. If a team isn’t listed, they aren’t a bubble team at the time of the update. RPI and SOS data is credited to CollegeRPI.com.

RPI data is for games played through Thursday, March 1. Records reflect games through Monday, March 5.

Total Spots (68): Number of teams in the Field.

Automatic Bids (31): Murray State (OVC), Belmont (A-SUN), UNC-Asheville (Big South), VCU (Colonial), Loyola-Md (MAAC), Creighton (MVC), St. Mary’s (WCC), Davidson (Southern)

  • Projected Locks (28): Teams who project to have secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Should Be In (6): These teams are in solid position to receive an at-large bid.
  • Bubble: (29): Teams projected to be under consideration for at-large selection.
  • Spots Available (12): Estimated number of openings after Automatic Bids, Locks, and Should Be Ins are considered.
  • RPI and SOS: RPI and SOS data are updated through games on Sunday, March 4
  • Teams Leaving the Bubble: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Alabama (Should Be In)
  • Teams Joining the Bubble: TBA
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple | Should Be In: None | Bubble: St. Louis, Dayton, St. Joe’s, Xavier
  • Dayton (19-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 72 | SOS: 56 | – The Flyers have eight Top 100 RPI wins, including victories over Temple, Alabama, and Xavier. The Flyers have also beaten Ole Miss and Minnesota. What Dayton also has is a few troubling losses – particularly defeats to sub-200 RPI teams Miami-OH and Rhode Island. The Flyers open A-10 tournament play against George Washingto; win that and UD faces rival Xavier. That could very well be an elimination game.
  • St. Joe’s (19-12 | 9-7) | RPI: 56 | SOS: 44 | – Like a lot of bubble teams, St. Joe’s enters conference tournament play in need of a couple of wins. What St. Joe’s has, however, are two good non-conference wins (Creighton and Drexel). They’ve also beaten Temple. Right now, thpse two non-league wins are holding the Hawks in decent at-large position. They will be helped or hurt by how teams around them do. St. Joe’s opens with Charlotte and then meets St. Bonaventure. The Hawks need to win both, then see what happens.
  • St. Louis (23-6 | 12-4) | RPI: 29 | SOS: 96 | – A couple of wins by Xavier, Washington and St. Joe’s would make the Billkens’ profile even better. But it’s hard to consider SLU a lock with an 0-2 mark vs. Top 50 teams. The rest of the A10 bubble teams listed here have at least two. St. Louis also has a loss at Rhode Island (much like Dayton). St. Louis plays the Richmond/La Salle winner in its A-10 opener. It would be a good idea for the Billikens to win that one.
  • Xavier (19-11 | 10-6) | RPI: 53 | SOS: 47 | – Non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Cincinnati continue to help the Muskies. The Musketeers are 6-10 vs. Top 100 but just 2-7 vs. the RPI Top 50. XU will likely face Dayton in its A-10 tournament opener (see above).
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Miami-FL, NC State, Virginia
  • Miami-FL (18-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 56 | SOS: 40 | – Miami has a huge win at Duke and a victory over Florida State at home. But they are just 3-10 vs. Top 100 teams. The Canes open ACC tourney play against Georgia Tech. That’s a must win. After that, it would be Florida State. Beating the Seminoles again could be enough to push Miami into the NCAAs.
  • NC State (20-11 | 9-7) | RPI: 57 | SOS: 29 | – The Wolfpack have a season sweep of Miami and a neutral court win over Texas. Decent wins. But an 0-8 mark vs. the Top 50 is troubling – although UT and Miami are in the 50-56 range as of this update. NC State has to beat Boston College in its ACC opener. Then it’s a matchup with Virginia. The Wolfpack need at least those two. We’ll re-evaluate the landscape if that happens.
  • Virginia (22-8 | 9-7) | RPI: 40 | SOS: 81 | – Virginia was able to hold off a Maryland rally to avoid a more desperate situation. The Cavaliers will play either NC State or Boston College in their ACC tournament opener. If it’s NC State, one more win should seal it. UVA can probably survive a loss (if it’s not to BC) but it would leave open the possibility of concern if Championship Week gets a little crazy. UVA is 2-5 vs. Top 50 teams and 7-6 vs. the Top 100. Good wins include Michigan and Drexel. The win at Oregon helps too.
BIG EAST
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame | Should Be In: Cincinnati | Bubble: Connecticut, Seton Hall, South Florida, West Virginia
  • Connecticut (18-12 | 8-10) | RPI: 34 | SOS: 3 | – Connecticut beat Pittsburgh to close the regular season and stay on the right side the bubble. That’s what 9 Top 100 wins and a Top 3 SOS will get you when the bubble is weak. Non-conference wins include Florida State and Harvard. The Huskies open Big East tournament play with a must win against DePaul. After that, it would be a bubble matchup with West Virginia.
  • Seton Hall (19-11 | 8-10) | RPI: 60 | SOS: 50 | – The Pirates ended the season with losses to Rutgers and DePaul. Wins over VCU, St. Joe’s and Dayton are helping right now, along with wins over Georgetown, Connecticut, and West Virginia. SHU is 7-8 vs. the Top 100. The Pirates open play in New York against Providence. Lose that one and SHU is likely done. A victory would put the Hall against Louisville.
  • South Florida (18-12 | 12-6) | RPI: 46 | SOS: 25 | – USF’s win at Louisville was the Bulls’ first marquee-type victory. They followed it up with a home loss to West Virginia. Most of the Bulls’ Big East wins came against the bottom of the league and their best non-conference win is Cleveland State. USF will play the Villanova/Rutgers winner to open Big East tournament play. The Bulls have to win that one and probably beat Notre Dame to improve their chances.
  • West Virginia (19-12 | 9-9) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 13 | – The Mountaineers ended a slump by closing the regular season with a road win at South Florida. WVU is bouyed some by a series of close losses. A non-conference win over Kansas State helps, too. WVU has 9 top 100 wins. The Mountaineers will likely open Big East tournament play against Connecticut (the Huskies play DePaul first). The winner of that one will be okay. The loser could sweat a little waiting for Selection Sunday.
BIG 10
Locks: Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin | Should Be In: Purdue | Bubble: Northwestern
  • Northwestern (18-12 | 8-10) | RPI: 48 | SOS: 14 | – The Wildcats did everything right to close the season except a 2-point loss to Ohio State. Those types of close losses will help the Wildcats, but at some point, winning games still counts, and a 1-10 mark vs. Top 50 teams stands out in the wrong way – same as a 5-12 mark vs. Top 100 teams. NW has a marquee win over Michigan State and a bubble win over Seton Hall. The Wildcats open with play in Indianapolis against Minnesota. Win, and it’s a matchup with Michigan. Northwestern probably needs both.
BIG 12
Locks: Baylor, Kansas, Missouri | Should Be In: Kansas State, Iowa State | Bubble: Texas
  • Texas (19-12 | 9-9) | RPI: 51 | SOS: 22 | – The Longhorns enter Big 12 tournament play squarely on the bubble. Good wins include Temple, Iowa State, and Kansas State at home. Texas is just 4-7 on the road and 4-10 vs. Top 100 teams (3-9 vs. Top 50). A loss at Oregon State is the low mark. Texas opens with Iowa State and needs to beat the Cyclones. A win would set up a likely matchup with Missouri.
CONFERENCE USA
Locks: Memphis | Should Be In: Southern Mississippi | Bubble: Central Florida
  • Central Florida (19-9 |10-6) | RPI: 64 | SOS: 94 | – The Knights open C-USA tournament play against either UAB or Tulane. UCF has to win that one as it would set up a game with Memphis. The Knights need to beat the Tigers a second time. UCF is just 2-4 vs. Top 50 teams and 3-6 vs the Top 100. Those numbers are considerably lower than some other bubble teams. Bad losses include Rice and UL-Lafayette.
MISSOURI VALLEY
Locks: Wichita State, Creighton | Should Be In: None | Bubble: None
  • Creighton won the automatic bid and ensured that the MVC will be a two-bid league.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks: UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Colorado State
  • Colorado State (18-10 | 8-6) | RPI: 21 | SOS: 7 | – The Rams have beaten UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico at home, and their power numbers are very strong, if not slightly inflated. The concerns are a 3-9 road record – CSU’s best road win is UTEP (No. 158) – and nothing out of conference other than a win over Montana. Overall, the Rams have 8 top 100 wins. CSU opens Mountain West tournament play against TCU. That win might be enough. Assuming they play SDSU in the semis, two wins would lock up a bid. A quick loss could leave the door open for trouble if bids get squeezed.
PAC 12
Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Arizona, California, Oregon, Washington
  • Arizona (21-10 | 12-6) | RPI: 76 | SOS: 115 | – The Wildcats ended their season with a horrible loss at Arizona State. Their at-large hopes were shaky before (1-4 vs. Top 50), and Arizona accomplished little outside the Pac-10. UA has to reach the Pac-12 title game to have any serious consideration.
  • California (23-8 | 13-5) | RPI: 37 | SOS: 91 | – Cal continues to have the best at-large resume of the Pac-12 group thanks to a sweep of Oregon and a win at Washington in the only meeting between the two. But a loss to Stanford kept the Bears behind Washington in the final standings. Cal is 7-6 vs the Top 100. The Bears will likely see Stanford again in their first Pac-12 tournament game. They probably can’t afford another loss to the Cardinal.
  • Oregon (22-8 | 13-5) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 77 | – The Ducks have won 6 of 7 games but failed to win a game against a Top 50 RPI opponent. About all Oregon has to offer is a split with Washington, as the Ducks were swept by Cal. A victory at Nebraska is Oregon’s top out-of-conference victory. The Ducks will likely open Pac-12 tournament play against Colorado, but they need to reach the title game to stay in the discussion.
  • Washington (21-9 | 14-4) | RPI: 50 | SOS: 85 | – After a loss at UCLA, Washington backed into a Pac-12 regular season title when Cal lost at Stanford. If the Huskies don’t win the league’s automatic bid we’ll learn soon enough how the Committee values a Pac-12 title. Washington is 1-6 vs. Top 50 teams and just 4-8 vs the Top 100. They split with Oregon, swept Arizona and lost their only game with Cal. The Huskies will open Pac-12 play with either Washington State or Oregon State. A loss could really hurt. Reaching the title game would be advised.
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt | Should Be In: Alabama | Bubble: Mississippi State, Tennessee
  • Mississippi State (21-10 | 8-8) | RPI: 63 | SOS: 67 | – The Bulldogs escaped South Carolina and beat Arkansas to close the regular season with two important wins. With 8 Top 100 wins (8-8), and a non-conference win over West Virginia, MSU survived a five-game swoon in February. The Bulldogs open SEC tournament play against Georgia. It would be a good idea to win that one. It might take a win over Vandy to feel safe.
  • Tennessee (17-13 | 10-6) | RPI: 75 | SOS: 33 | – The Volunteers actually earned the two-seed at the SEC tournament this week in New Orleans. How the Committee evaluates the arrival of Jarnell Stokes in early January will be a major factor for the Vols. They are clearly a better team with him, and three of their bad losses came before he arrived. UT is 10-5 with Stokes and has beaten Florida twice, Vanderbilt, and Connecticut. Those are four wins few bubble teams have. Tennessee gets the Auburn/Ole Miss winner in Game 1. Two more wins could be enough depending on what else happens.
WEST COAST
Locks: Gonzaga | Should Be In: None | Bubble: BYU
  • BYU (23-8 | 12-4) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 93 | – BYU failed in its attempt to beat Gonzaga a second time and finished 1-4 vs the Zags and St. Mary’s. If the Cougars miss the NCAAs that will be one reason why. Their best non-conference victories are Nevada and Oregon. Good wins, but perhaps not enough to make an NCAA bid hold up. BYU is a team that could easily be squeezed if bids get tight. Their resume is complete. It will be a long wait until Selection Sunday.
BEST OF THE REST
Locks: None | Should Be In: None | Bubble: Drexel, Harvard, Iona, Long Beach State, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, Oral Roberts
  • Drexel (27-6 | 16-2) | RPI: 67 | SOS: 210 |The Dragons may prove to be the ultimate “eye test” team for this year’s Selection Committee. Drexel had won 19 straight games before losing in the CAA championship to VCU. They were also the outright regular-season champions of the Colonial. Strictly by the numbers, Drexel finished 1-2 vs. Top 50 teams and just 4-3 against the Top 100. While they lost to St. Joseph’s and Virginia, Drexel beat Cleveland State by 20 on the road. All the Dragons can do now is wait and hope a few other things fall their way.
  • Harvard (24-4 | 11-2) | RPI: 38 | SOS: 171 | – Harvard is waiting for Pennsylvannia to finish its season on Tuesday. A Penn loss would give Harvard the league’s automatic bid. If Penn wins, there will be a playoff. With a playoff loss, Harvard would have to hope early wins over Florida State, St. Joseph’s, and UCF are enough for an at-large.
  • Iona (25-7 | 15-3) | RPI: 41 | SOS: 143 | – The Gaels ended their season by losing to Fairfield in the MAAC semifinals. Now, it’s a long wait until Selection Sunday. Iona has to hope that wins over Nevada and St. Joseph’s hold up and that a few things go their way. The Gaels finished 1-1 vs. the Top 50 and 5-3 vs. the Top 100. Losses to sub-200 teams Siena and Hofstra may ultimately doom Iona to the NIT.
  • Long Beach State (20-8 | 15-1) | RPI: 34 | SOS: 111 | – The 49ers nearly completed a perfect Big West season. And while early wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier help, they aren’t as strong as once thought. LBSU played the No. 1 non-conference schedule but went 0-6 vs. Top 50 teams and just 2-7 vs. the Top 100. Several close losses will help, but how much? Long Beach opens Big West tournament play against UC Davis.
  • Middle Tennesse State (24-6 | 14-2) | RPI: 59 | SOS: 187 | – The Blue Raiders’ chances are very slim after losing in the Quarterfinals of the Sun Belt tournament. Their best wins are Ole Miss, Akron and Belmont. But they ended the season with back-to-back losses to Western Kentucky and Arkansas State (both sub-200 teams). MTSU ended 0-1 vs. Top 50 teams.
  • Nevada (23-5 | 13-1) | RPI: 47 | SOS: 145 | – Having lost its BracketBusters game at Iona and then watching Iona fall early in the MAAC tournament, Nevada’s at-large chances are growing slim. What the Wolfpack do have is a win over Washington. Nevada has to reach the WAC title game to have any chance to stay in the at-large picture.
  • Oral Roberts (27-6 | 17-1) | RPI: 40 | SOS: 174 | – ORU beat Xavier, Missouri State, and Akron (BracketBusters) in non-conference play, although XU was without several players. But a loss to Western Illinois in the league tournament semis puts a damper on the Eagles’ at-large hopes. They finished 0-2 vs. Top 50 teams and just 3-3 against the Top 100. ORU has to hope a dominate season in the Summit is enough.
  1. Rich Gould - Mar 6, 2012 at 3:13 PM

    st. louis is a lock — don’t let this dope tell you otherwise

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