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The seven (plus one) best bracket tips for casual fans

Mar 14, 2012, 12:47 PM EDT

Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb

Hey-o, it’s Wednesday. How does your bracket look?

Time is ticking and, if you haven’t filled out your sheet yet, it’s likely because you’re waiting until the last possible moment to guess your way through the field.

If you need a little nudge, maybe some clarity on a few questions you may have, fear not, here are some good little tips to consider when filling out your bracket.

1) Don’t pick Indiana. Despite a mini-renaissance in Bloomington, the resurgence hasn’t carried too far outside of Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers best win on the road is over Purdue. Their best win outside of the state of Indiana is NC State. That’s not very impressive for a four-seed.

2) Winning your regular season conference title may not really matter, and neither is winning your conference title, but winning one of them does have a bearing on a team’s National Championship hopes. Nine of the last 13 winners have won their conference tournament, while a different variation of nine of the last 13 teams have won their conference’s regular season title. That means you almost must win something. Simply speaking: Duke, or even Ohio State are not winning this thing, but we’ll re-visit the Buckeyes in a moment.

3) Last season, UConn ran the table and won the National Championship as a three-seed , capping off an incredible 14-0 neutral court record. The performance got everyone thinking that winning in that sort of setting could be a good indicator of how a team will play in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s a look at every team’s neutral court record this season from Basketball State. Who does this make look good? Missouri, Vanderbilt and even Louisville. Conversely? Kansas, Memphis and Wichita State.

3) No 16-seed has beaten a one-seed, but 15s have beaten twos…just not in the past 10 years. Zero for their last 40, the unlikely 15 over a two is currently in its longest drought since the tournament expanded in 1985. Maybe their due, maybe their not, but streaks were made to be broken.

4) Consult KenPom.com. The national champion has finished either No. 1 or No 2 in his ranking algorithm in all but two seasons since the site was launched in 2003. With the two outliers being the 2011 UConn Huskies (Kemba Walker) and 2003 Syracuse Orange (Carmelo Anthony), the two anomalies were due primarily to one player catching fire and carrying his entire team. With this, I’m basically telling you to strongly consider Kentucky and Ohio State to play for the National Championship.

5) Some people may be looking at Florida as their deep Final Four darkhorse. Pump the brakes right now. No seven seed has ever made the Final Four since the tournament expanded. Sorry, Gators. Your swoon to close out the regular season doomed you, and everything is pointing in Missouri’s final to cruise through that pod.

6) North Carolina’s,  maybe even Florida State’s chances at making the Final Four are great based on history. Twenty-two of the last 28 Final Fours have included an ACC team. Yes, I know, Duke and the Heels are a big part of that, but if you are a numbers guy that has to make a few decisions easier for you. With the Midwest Region looking thin, and the East now wide open both teams have a good chance to win their region, but boy that potential Sweet 16 match-up between the Seminoles and Buckeyes could go either way.

7) Don’t get too crazy. In only five out of 34 cases has the total seed number of the Final Four 20 or more. Most recently was last year, which means that probably won’t happen again this season. Basically: select conservatively this season.

8) Pick Kentucky to win it all.

  1. dracko19 - Mar 14, 2012 at 6:36 PM

    The last time Mich St won the Big Ten tourney was 2000. They were given a 1 seed. They won it all. Might want to put that in your formula.

  2. craichead79 - Mar 14, 2012 at 11:46 PM

    Two signs that the advice given in this article should not be taken seriously:

    1. Author clearly has no understanding of statistics (15 seeds beating 2 seeds are independent trials and no result could possibly be “due”)

    2. Author doesn’t know the difference between “their” and “they’re”

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