Mar 27, 2012, 9:33 AM EDT
Oddsmakers aren’t the only ones who think Kentucky will roll to the national title. Most computer simulations and some coaches couldn’t agree more.
The Wildcats were the overwhelming result when Jeff Sagarin ran four billion simulations of the remaining games, USA Today reports. (How many results count as “overwhelming” when you run four billion simulations, I don’t know.) Ken Pomeroy estimated Kentucky’s chances of winning it all at 42 percent. Ohio State’s were 34 percent.
But what about a coach’s perspective? St. John’s played Kentucky and Louisville this season and lost to both. What would assistant Tony Chiles say?
“I think Kentucky wins it going away,” Chiles told the N.Y. Times. “They’re just so long and so athletic.”
If the Wildcats played the Buckeyes in Monday’s title game, Mike Colbert of Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas says they’d be a 2-1 favorite. And that might be kind to Ohio State.
“The biggest buzz that I can remember before this is the UNLV team with Larry Johnson and Stacey Augmon (that beat Duke 103-73 for the title) in 1990,” he said. “That was bigger. There was no chance they were going to lose.
“Quite frankly I think this Kentucky team is a little better. The way Kentucky plays together, they are probably the most unselfish team I’ve seen in quite some time. They literally have five NBA players on the floor at all times, which is unheard of, but the way they play defense and the way they play together … there’s not one selfish player on the court. … I’d be very, very surprised if they get beat. I have to give (John) Calipari credit. This has been his best coaching job by a mile.”
It’s interesting that Colbert used 1990 UNLV as an example when nearly every college basketball fan and pundit would place the 1991 team as the superior Rebels squad.
But then, the fate of that ’91 squad is pretty well known. I’d say that’s the answer.
You also can follow me on Twitter @MikeMillerNBC.
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