May 30, 2012, 9:22 AM EDT
Wednesday night in New York, mathematics, probability, and chance will determine the fate of the NBA’s worst teams, with all signs pointing to tonight’s outcome in the Draft Lottery as the golden ticket to drafting Kentucky star Anthony Davis.
Davis, the Wildcat forward who won both the National Player and National Freshman of the Year awards, averaged 14.3 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.7 blocks per game this past season.
On paper, the Charlotte Bobcats have the greatest statistical shot at grabbing Davis, at 25%, but, seen another way, there is a 75% chance that another team will end up with the first overall pick.
Charlotte has had a less-than-stellar draft history, though their first overall selection has come outside of the lottery just once. With all of those high draft choices, the Bobcats have never selected a true star, and have drafted a few notable players who have yet to live up to Top 15 potential, including No. 3 pick Adam Morrison, No. 8 pick Brandan Wright, and No. 13 pick Sean May.
The draft board gets a bit dicey after that first overall pick, were Charlotte to drop down. They would then need to decide whether to bank on the potential of a player like Connecticut’s Andre Drummond, look at a more experienced player like Kansas’ Thomas Robinson, or take a look at one of the highly regarded players in workouts so far, Florida’s Bradley Beal.
Here are the odds for Wednesday’s Draft Lottery:
1. Charlotte, 7-59, 25.0 percent
2. Washington, 20-46, 19.9 percent
3. Cleveland, 21-45, 13.8 percent
4. New Orleans, 21-45, 13.7 percent
5. Sacramento, 22-44, 7.6 percent
6. New Jersey, 22-44, 7.5 percent (a)
7. Golden State, 23-43, 3.6 percent (b)
8. Toronto, 23-43, 3.5 percent
9. Detroit, 25-41, 1.7 percent
10. New Orleans, 1.1 percent (c)
11. Portland, 28-38, 0.8 percent
12. Milwaukee, 31-35, 0.7 percent
13. Phoenix, 33-33, 0.6 percent
14. Houston, 34-32, 0.5 percent
(a) Pick to Portland if outside the top three.
(b) Pick to Utah if outside the top seven.
(c) From Minnesota (26-40)
The Draft Lottery will take place at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
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