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Breaking down the draft: Who will be the lottery’s biggest bust?

Jun 21, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT

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Over the next couple of days, each of our writers here at College Basketball Talk will weigh on certain topics and prospects. Today’s question? Who will be the biggest bust in this year’s lottery:

Eric Angevine: Gotta go with Harrison Barnes here. Not because I doubt his talent – it’s abundantly clear that he has plenty. What I can’t peg is his competitive fire, which seems to wax and wane. If he was able to disappear amongst the Tar Heels while playing with a pass-first point guard, what will he do in the me-first NBA? I made note of his somewhat stiff posture the first time I saw him as a freshman, and that tendency to stay upright exposes him as a quirky ballhandler who may have trouble getting himself open at the next level.

Raphielle Johnson: I’ll take Harrison Barnes (North Carolina) with many projecting Perry Jones III to land outside of the lottery. The reason why is that Barnes didn’t do much to show himself capable of creating his own looks while at North Carolina. Could a part of the issue there be the system? Possibly, but it isn’t as if there was no move at all to put him in positions to make plays off the dribble. Given the fact that much of the chatter seems to have him as a Top 5 selection, that may be a bit too much right now.

Daniel Martin: There is no question that Jared Sullinger produced at Ohio State, but what some are unsure about is whether his largely below-the-rim game can translate to the pros. If he does become a solid NBA player, he will also have to work to get to another level to silence critics and prove he is worth a lottery pick.

Mike Miller: Thomas Robinson*, with an asterisk if the Bobcats do take him No. 2 overall as recent mock drafts project. T-Rob says he should be drafted No. 1 and with good reason. He’d love to avoid Charlotte. Robinson’s a gifted player with a non-stop motor and a great work ethic. But as the national title game against players with similar size and skill (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones) showed, Robinson can be overmatched in the post. No. 2 is too high for him, mostly for the accompanying expectations. But hey, I’m a Kansas grad. Maybe I also don’t want to see T-Rob land a wretched spot like that.

Rob DausterSince Harrison Barnes was a popular pick on this list, I’ll go with UConn’s Andre Drummond. Drummond is just as big, long and athletic as Anthony Davis, only he has an extra 60 pounds on his frame. He’s got the raw talent and the tools to be as good as he wants to be, but the problem is that no one really seems to know whether or not he wants to be great. He’s young (he doesn’t actually turn 19 until August) and he’s raw, which means that he has the chance to develop into something special if he puts in the work. Does he like basketball enough to put in the consistent effort needed to develop?

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