Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
- G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
– G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
– F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
– F: Chane Behanan, So.
– C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
– Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Oct 1, 2014, 7:14 PM EDT
The Big Ten is the first of the five conferences granted autonomy to send recommendations to the NCAA.
Oct 1, 2014, 6:06 PM EDT
With Missouri’s top three scorers from last season having moved on, Johnathan Williams III will be a key figure in 2014-15.
Oct 1, 2014, 4:45 PM EDT
Spencer averaged 9.1 points and 3.2 rebounds per game last season.
Oct 1, 2014, 4:07 PM EDT
Both with charged with drunk driving offenses during the offseason.
Oct 1, 2014, 3:03 PM EDT
SDSU’s front court depth will take an early season hit.
Oct 1, 2014, 1:39 PM EDT
Haith earned a commitment from a three-star point guard from Western New York.
Oct 1, 2014, 11:52 AM EDT
Van Vleet has been attending speaking engagements this offseason, trying to give back to the youth.
Oct 1, 2014, 11:02 AM EDT
Jawun Evans is one of the top three point guards in the class.
Oct 1, 2014, 9:55 AM EDT
Do you think the MLB needs some ice for that burn?
Sep 30, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
A former Baylor commit is suing his former high school for allegedly altering his grades.
Sep 30, 2014, 9:42 PM EDT
Missouri is losing a wing shooter.
Sep 30, 2014, 8:50 PM EDT
Can an SEC program reel in a top-5 player in the 2015 class during a weekend visit?
Sep 30, 2014, 7:44 PM EDT
Harvard landed another quality recruit.
Sep 30, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
IUPUI unveiled a new court design this week.
Sep 30, 2014, 5:10 PM EDT
Western Kentucky fans were given three options and selected one for the upcoming season.
Sep 30, 2014, 3:55 PM EDT
NBA teams know all about efficiency stats and advanced analytics. College freshmen and sophomores may not.
Sep 30, 2014, 1:56 PM EDT
Evans may be the best point guard in the Class of 2015, but it’s up for debate.
Sep 30, 2014, 1:17 PM EDT
Ernie Kent lands his third commitment in the Class of 2015.
Sep 30, 2014, 10:22 AM EDT
The pair will replace Digger Phelps and Jalen Rose.
Sep 30, 2014, 8:48 AM EDT
The Owls may not have landed Jalen Brunson, but they did bring in an elite “legacy” in the back court.
- Oklahoma State lands commitment from elite point guard in 2015 0
- John Calipari hiring an analytics director is smart, necessary, strictly for his players 0
- Marcus Smart’s mom reportedly hospitalized the day he shoved Texas Tech fan 0
- Four-star point guard verbally commits to Clemson 0
- Top 2015 and 2016 prospects comment on high school-to-pro move in new report 0
- Four-star 2015 shooting guard commits to Illinois 0
- Florida State gets commitment from 7-foot-4 2015 center 2
- Wichita State gets commitment from three-star 2015 point guard (2)
- Frank Haith lands first commitment as head coach at Tulsa (2)
- Three-star point guard down to Maryland, Providence, UNLV and Virginia Tech (1)
- Former SMU commit picks Michigan State (1)
- Alex Poythress dunks over 7-foot Dakari Johnson (VIDEO) (1)