Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
- G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
- G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
- F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
- F: Chane Behanan, So.
- C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
- Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Jul 25, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
Hipsher worked with Watson from 2009-11, when he was associate head coach at Alabama and Watson a grad assistant.
Jul 25, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Despite the fact that Vuvovic made it through the NCAA Eligibility Center, Monmouth has decided to not admit him.
Jul 24, 2014, 10:04 PM EDT
Eric McKnight’s waiver to play immediately was denied by the SEC.
Jul 24, 2014, 8:45 PM EDT
Groce is under .500 in Big Ten play in his two seasons at Illinois.
Jul 24, 2014, 8:34 PM EDT
Florida State will play five non-conference games against teams that reached the NCAA tournament last season.
Jul 24, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
The four latest five-star recruits that Cal landed all showed off their Kentucky threads on instagram.
Jul 24, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT
Mostella has travelled a long road to get to Knoxville.
Jul 24, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Austin has found a landing place, but it’s still a long way from the Division I ranks.
Jul 24, 2014, 4:15 PM EDT
Three true road games and a visit from the reigning champs?
Jul 24, 2014, 2:49 PM EDT
Thon Maker is a top five recruit in 2016 and would be a top two or three recruit in 2015.
Jul 24, 2014, 1:53 PM EDT
Hoiberg had surgery to replace his pacemaker last week.
Jul 24, 2014, 12:21 PM EDT
The events will be played in November and December
Jul 24, 2014, 11:55 AM EDT
Mykhailiuk is playing in the B Division of the event.
Jul 24, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
The final open period has begun, with Corey Sanders and Jalen Brunson among the standouts.
Jul 23, 2014, 9:59 PM EDT
Perry’s been at USC Upstate since 2009, and among the players he’s helped recruit was former great Torrey Craig.
Jul 23, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Brown averaged 5.5 points per game and made 13 starts in 35 appearances for the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Jul 23, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Lindsay played his freshman season at Kansas
Jul 23, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Beasley has been one of the nations top performers over the last three months
Jul 23, 2014, 3:52 PM EDT
Thomas is a bulldozer on the block.
Jul 23, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
It’s the latest in a long line of bourbon bottles commemorating celebrities in the state.
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