Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
– G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
– G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
– F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
– F: Chane Behanan, So.
– C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
– Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Aug 3, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
A cool documentary-style approach to the Under Armour Association in preparation for the Elite 24.
Aug 3, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Nebraska is hoping a four-game trip in Spain helps with their freshmen.
Aug 3, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Baylor is losing a reserve forward to transfer.
Aug 3, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
Mamadi Diakite, a four-star forward, could decide between three schools soon, per a report.
Aug 3, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
There are two glaring weaknesses to Kris Dunn’s game. Here’s how he’s gone about trying to fix them this summer.
Aug 3, 2015, 2:40 PM EDT
Tony Carr is a four-star point guard that picked Penn State over Maryland, SMU and Providence.
Aug 3, 2015, 12:29 PM EDT
The investigation was conducted by an outside law firm and paid for by the university.
Aug 3, 2015, 12:05 PM EDT
Alkins might be the best player from New York City since Lance Stephenson.
Aug 3, 2015, 9:20 AM EDT
The schedule isn’t the best you’ll see this season, but it’s pretty solid nonetheless.
Aug 2, 2015, 9:45 PM EDT
St. John’s remains under consideration for the Brooklyn native.
Aug 2, 2015, 6:37 PM EDT
He’s the younger brother of five-star 2017 forward Michael Porter Jr., and Michael Sr. considered joining the Washington staff this spring.
Aug 2, 2015, 5:10 PM EDT
With Vince Hunter in the professional ranks and Matt Willms dealing with a foot issue, this is an important pickup for the Miners.
Aug 2, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Markelle Fultz will take two official visits once he leaves adidas Nations.
Aug 2, 2015, 2:45 PM EDT
Wenyen Gabriel’s tremendous summer only got better with this off-handed throw down on a defender.
Aug 2, 2015, 1:45 PM EDT
Xavier added another piece in the 2016 class with a guard commitment.
Aug 2, 2015, 12:33 PM EDT
N.C. State added a dynamic wing scorer late in their 2015 recruiting efforts on Sunday as reclassified 6-foot-7 wing Maverick Rowan committed to the Wolfpack. A three-level scorer, Rowan was previously committed to Pitt and later backed off of his pledge to the Panthers before deciding to move up a grade by taking two summer…
Aug 2, 2015, 11:45 AM EDT
Texas A&M finished off a tremendous 2015 recruiting class with one more combo guard.
Aug 2, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
After a rough July that included suspensions and a recruit heading to prep school, Arkansas received some good news on the first day of August.
Aug 2, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Brandon Childress, son of Wake Forest great Randolph Childress, was the first commit in the class for the Demon Deacons.
Aug 1, 2015, 10:01 PM EDT
The lawsuit stemmed from the incident in the spring of 2014.
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