Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EST
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
- G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
– G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
– F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
– F: Chane Behanan, So.
– C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
– Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Mar 3, 2015, 9:35 PM EST
Georgetown and Iowa earn big road wins.
Mar 3, 2015, 7:01 PM EST
All of Tuesday’s bubble action, right here.
Mar 3, 2015, 7:00 PM EST
Cincinnati could be losing an experienced guard for next season.
Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell among 10 finalists for Wayman Tisdale Award as nation’s best freshman
Mar 3, 2015, 6:00 PM EST
A lot of productive players on the Wayman Tisdale Award finalist list, led by Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell.
Mar 3, 2015, 4:52 PM EST
Albany is looking for its third NCAA tournament appearance in as many years. Stony Brook is attempting to once again get over that conference tournament hump.
Mar 3, 2015, 3:47 PM EST
Kaminsky has all but locked up the award in my mind.
Mar 3, 2015, 2:32 PM EST
Murray State rolled through the OVC unbeaten and enters the conference tournament as the heavy favorite.
Mar 3, 2015, 1:36 PM EST
Rasheed Sulaimon was reportedly publicly accused of sexual assault.
Mar 3, 2015, 1:24 PM EST
This is the last true road game for the Wildcats this season.
Mar 3, 2015, 12:54 PM EST
Andrew Chrabascz had missed the last two weeks with a broken hand
Mar 3, 2015, 12:05 PM EST
A three-game margin separated the top seven teams, so don’t be surprised if things don’t go according to the seeds in Conway, South Carolina.
Mar 3, 2015, 11:42 AM EST
The National Player of the Year talks hoops, soccer and senior years.
Mar 3, 2015, 10:12 AM EST
Last year, the college hoops 30 for 30 was “Requiem for the Big East”.
Mar 3, 2015, 9:15 AM EST
Can St. Francis (NY) land their first-ever NCAA tournament berth?
Late Night Snacks: Texas gets huge win over Baylor, Iowa State comeback win on Oklahoma; No. 2 Virginia wins on road
Mar 2, 2015, 11:18 PM EST
No. 2 Virginia earned a big road win.
Mar 2, 2015, 9:33 PM EST
Texas survived to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive.
Mar 2, 2015, 8:30 PM EST
Seton Hall added to its 2015 recruiting haul on Monday.
Mar 2, 2015, 7:20 PM EST
Alabama loses another starter as the regular season winds down.
Mar 2, 2015, 6:19 PM EST
Bucknell will be looking to make their third NCAA tournament appearance under Dave Paulsen.
Mar 2, 2015, 3:30 PM EST
The Big 12 and the ACC will both be in action.
- Bubble Banter: Just how bad was Indiana’s loss to Iowa? 0
- Player of the Year Power Rankings: It’s Frank Kaminsky’s award to win 1
- Ohio Valley Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards 0
- Mike Krzyzewski refuses comment on Rasheed Sulaimon sexual assault allegations 10
- Bracketology: Villanova takes ahold of the fourth No. 1 seed 3
- College Basketball Talk’s Latest Top 25: How far will Wisconsin and Gonzaga fall? 20
- Bubble Banter: Oregon lands a key win, but Purdue, Stanford and Pitt lose 0
- College Basketball Talk’s Latest Top 25: How far will Wisconsin and Gonzaga fall? (20)
- You Make the Call: Was Texas guard Isaiah Taylor fouled on this drive? (16)
- Report: Former Louisville guard Chris Jones charged with rape, sodomy (13)
- Mike Krzyzewski refuses comment on Rasheed Sulaimon sexual assault allegations (10)
- Vanderbilt head coach Kevin Stallings apologizes for postgame outburst directed at freshman guard Wade Baldwin IV (9)