Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
– G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
– G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
– F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
– F: Chane Behanan, So.
– C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
– Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Sep 3, 2015, 9:05 PM EDT
The Bulldogs are guaranteed games against five NCAA tournament teams and could play more based upon what happens in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Sep 3, 2015, 7:56 PM EDT
Virginia is trying to figure out the academic situation of Mamadi Diakite, who might enroll in 2015.
Sep 3, 2015, 6:51 PM EDT
This comes less than a month after AD Norwood Teague stepped down for his own alleged sexual misconduct.
Sep 3, 2015, 5:22 PM EDT
Joe Struggs, who didn’t enroll until last month, has been dealing with issues with both of his shins.
Sep 3, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
This year’s Terrapins will look to match what Dixon, Steve Blake and company accomplished just over 13 years ago.
Sep 3, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Jalen Johnson is one of the best in-game dunkers in the Class of 2016.
Sep 3, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
The Atlantic 10 released its full conference schedule. The league has 33 games on NBCSN this season.
Sep 3, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Michigan State saw the newly-renovated practice facility when they arrived back from a trip to Italy.
Sep 3, 2015, 9:15 AM EDT
Josh Jackson won back-to-back MVP awards at the Under Armour Elite 24.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
With two seniors in their current front court, adding a big man helps North Carolina moving forward.
Sep 2, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Mullin threw out the first pitch at a Yankees game back in late-May.
Sep 2, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The men’s basketball freshmen will meet in New York City September 12 & 13.
Sep 2, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
The ACC is loaded this year, which will make for a fun conference schedule.
Sep 2, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Mississippi guard Tyson Carter is one of the biggest stock risers of July.
Sep 2, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Two in the Arkansas forgery case pleaded not guilty.
Sep 2, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Josh Jackson and Harry Giles are staying on top of the Rivals150 in the Class of 2016.
Sep 2, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
The American has some talented teams entering the 2015-16 race.
Sep 2, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Randy Kennedy returns in a new season ticket ad for Ole Miss.
Sep 2, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Jalen Rose isn’t done telling the story of the Fab Five. A new book is reportedly coming.
Sep 2, 2015, 9:50 AM EDT
Siyani Chambers is leaving Harvard for the year after a torn ACL.
- Jalen Rose planning a book about the Fab Five 2
- Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan makes another statement wavering on potential retirement 0
- Cody Zeller, Indiana president speak out against recent athlete legal issues 0
- Five-star 2016 combo guard cuts list to four 0
- Xavier, Mount St. Joseph to launch the ‘Lauren Hill Tip-Off Classic’ 1
- Tai Wynyard: ‘I will be coming to UK in December’ 0
- Tom Izzo, 30 second shot clocks, and why zone presses will be more popular this year 1