Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
– G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
– G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
– F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
– F: Chane Behanan, So.
– C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
– Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Apr 27, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
The return of Buddy Hield pushes previously unranked Oklahoma into our way too early rankings.
Apr 27, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Who’s going pro? Who’s returning to school? Who are we still waiting to hear from?
Apr 26, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
Collins averaged 7.1 points and 5.2 assists per game last season, and his arrival could lead to Alex Caruso getting more scoring opportunities off the ball.
Apr 26, 2015, 7:35 PM EDT
Robinson has quite the rebuilding job on his hands, but guard LeAntwan Luckett (16.3 ppg) is one of the team’s top four scorers who have eligibility remaining.
Apr 26, 2015, 7:05 PM EDT
Dominic Green was released from his National Letter of Intent to Arizona State a couple weeks ago.
Apr 26, 2015, 6:02 PM EDT
In addition to making graduates sit out a year, there’s also consideration of the idea that schools can restrict where they can go.
Apr 26, 2015, 4:05 PM EDT
Nick Noskowiak joins former Arkansas guard Nick Babb as players who have committed to Iowa State this month.
Apr 26, 2015, 2:29 PM EDT
Skinner was the longtime coach of Boston College.
Apr 26, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
Avery Johnson is touring with Nick Saban to get more familiar with being a head coach at Alabama.
UAA Day 2: The return of Seventh Woods; Markelle Fultz is the real deal; Josh Jackson’s up-and-down day
Apr 26, 2015, 11:30 AM EDT
The Under Armour Association has plenty of talented players in its league this season, including former mixtape star Seventh Woods and the No. 1 player in the Class of 2016, Josh Jackson.
Apr 26, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Malik Monk had a dominating effort on Saturday while Harry Giles didn’t make much of an impact.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Josh Jackson went for 41 points, seven assists and six rebounds at the Under Armour Association.
Apr 26, 2015, 8:54 AM EDT
Ferrell would have been a second round pick.
Apr 25, 2015, 10:19 PM EDT
Taylor averaged 13.1 points and 4.6 assists per game last season, and his decision to return is a nice boost for head coach Shaka Smart.
Apr 25, 2015, 9:55 PM EDT
Graduate students Max Bielfeldt and Tyler Harris were in Ames this weekend, as was former Marquette commit Nick Noskowiak.
Wisconsin’s Josh Gasser, Duje Dukan serve as honorary coaches for football team’s spring game (VIDEO)
Apr 25, 2015, 8:55 PM EDT
Gasser’s team beat Dukan’s by the final score of 35-7.
Apr 25, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Turner won MAC Rookie of the Year honors in 2013-14.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:59 PM EDT
Junior Etou averaged 7.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season.
Apr 25, 2015, 4:33 PM EDT
King averaged 7.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last season at Memphis.
Apr 25, 2015, 3:12 PM EDT
Thornton will fill the void left by Tyus Jones at the point.
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too-Early Preseason Rankings 0
- 2015 College Basketball Updated Early Entry List 14
- Report: Yogi Ferrell to return to Indiana for senior season 0
- Texas point guard Isaiah Taylor returning for junior season 1
- EYBL Day 1: Jayson Tatum vs. Michael Porter Jr.; De’Aaron Fox, Jarred Vanderbilt go for big outings 0
- Providence announces return of point guard Kris Dunn for 2015-16 season 0
- Five-star guard Malik Newman commits to Mississippi State 0
- Duke lands commitment from elite PG Derryck Thornton, who will reclass (18)
- 2015 College Basketball Updated Early Entry List (14)
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too Early Preseason Top 25 (9)
- Louisville adds key grad transfer Damion Lee (6)
- All-MAC guard Shannon Evans to transfer from Buffalo; is athletics director Danny White at fault? (3)