Nov 1, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 30-10, 10-8 Big East (7th); Lost in the Final Four to Kentucky
Head Coach: Rick Pitino
Key Losses: Kyle Kuric, Chris Smith, Jared Swopshire, Mike Marra, Rakeem Buckles
Newcomers: Montrezl Harrell, Mangok Mathiang
- G: Peyton Siva, Sr.
– G: Wayne Blackshear, So.
– F: Luke Hancock, Jr.
– F: Chane Behanan, So.
– C: Gorgui Dieng, Jr.
– Bench: Montrezl Harrell, Fr; Russ Smith, Jr.; Kevin Ware, So.; Zach Price, So.
Outlook: The future is bright for the Louisville Cardinals. They are coming off of a trip to the Final Four, they have a loaded recruiting class coming in next season, their head coach just inked a deal to keep him in town until 2022 and, most importantly, the Cardinals are ranked higher than in-state rival Kentucky.
Louisville is a legitimate national title threat this season, and it all starts with their defense, where the Cardinals were the best team in the country last season, according to efficiency guru Kenpom. Using different variations of a 2-3 zone and a 2-2-1 zone press, the Cardinals were able to use the perfect combination of ball pressure on the perimeter and shot-blocking around the rim to make running offense a nightmare for opposing teams. They forced turnovers, they blocked shots and they didn’t allow open shots. In fact, there is ample opportunity for the Cardinal’s defense to improve, as they were ranked 230th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage.
With so many key pieces returning this season, it’s difficult to imagine Louisville having anything but an elite defense again this year.
The question marks lie on the offensive end of the floor.
Louisville was not a good offensive team last year. There were times, prior to the run they made in the month of March, that the Cardinals were downright bad on that end of the floor. They turned the ball over, they forced too many bad shots, and they couldn’t hit anything from beyond the arc. What’s worse is that the team that was 103rd in offensive efficiency a season ago loses the only two players on their roster — Kyle Kuric and Chris Smith — who were consistently efficient players on the offensive end of the floor. That’s worrisome.
What needs to be noted here is that there is room for interpretation within the numbers. Take Peyton Siva, for example. He entered last season with quite a bit of expectation, but he struggled mightily early in the year. But his play down the stretch — particularly in the month of March — was the biggest reason Louisville won the Big East tournament and made the Final Four. When Siva’s at his best, Pitino is able to run him off of high-ball screens and simply allow Siva’s talent to take over. If that Peyton Siva shows up this year, Louisville will be fine.
The other difference at the end of the season for Louisville was Wayne Blackshear. A highly-regarded freshman last season, Blackshear spent much of the year battling shoulder problems. He only played in 15 games, but while his numbers were limited (7.0 minutes and 2.5 points), he did show some flashes of serious potential. He’s a bigger wing and a guy that can score and, more importantly, shoot from the perimeter. His presence will provide more consistency for the Cardinals.
Joining those two on the perimeter will Luke Hancock, a versatile, 6-foot-5 wing that is eligible this season after transferring in from George Mason. Hancock can score, but what makes him special is his ability to be a playmaker on the wing, which should help take some of the pressure off of Siva. The exciting Russ Smith will also see plenty of action. Smith is a gunner through and through, to the point where, at times, his shooting and penchant for turning the ball over is almost a detriment. But he’s also good enough that when he gets going, he can drop 30. Sophomore point guard Kevin Ware will likely back Siva up.
Gorgui Dieng is the star of the Louisville front court. A 6-foot-11 athlete, Dieng is one of the best defensive centers in the country, and he’ll only get better as his offensive repertoire expands. He’ll be joined by two strong and explosive power forwards in Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell. Harrell will likely begin the year in the starting lineup as Behanan deals with some suspension issues, but both are threats to post a double-double on any given night. Expect Zach Price and Stephen Van Treese to see time as well.
Predictions?: Last year was a weird year for the Cardinals. They had a bunch of players taking on new and expanded roles, and it took them a few months to really embrace those roles and learn how to thrive in them. The question this season is whether or not those same players are going to feel pressure when asked to go from the hunters to the hunted. Louisville is going to have a target on their back every time they step foot on the floor. How will this team react? Because anything less than a Big East title and a return trip to the Final Four is going to be considered a disappoint in a town that’s overshadowed by their bigger, blue neighbors.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:55 PM EDT
Tom Izzo does it again. Add it to the long line of amazing midnight madness entrances.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:24 PM EDT
Chris Mack and his daughters performed ‘Paul Revere’ at Musketeer Madness on Friday night.
Oct 24, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT
The Wisconsin forward is likely to miss a week or two
Oct 24, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Ed Cooley adds a 6-foot-8 forward to the Friars’ front court.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT
The former Virginia Tech Hokie will be a big boost to SMU’s perimeter.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
Manhattan and head coach Steve Masiello had some issues to address this spring, but thanks in part to their departed senior class the Jaspers are well-positioned to once again contend in the MAAC.
Oct 24, 2014, 5:05 PM EDT
One of the nation’s highly-touted bigs is closer to making a decision after eliminating two programs from his list.
Oct 24, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT
Jones became the second coach to lead LSU to postseason appearances in his first two years this past spring.
Oct 24, 2014, 1:52 PM EDT
Kellogg’s led his alma mater to 21 wins or more in each of the last three seasons.
Oct 24, 2014, 12:39 PM EDT
Georgetown holds a 35-29 lead in their all-time series with UConn.
Oct 24, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Villanova went 29-5 last season and return essentially the same lineup. Why aren’t more people talking about them?
Oct 24, 2014, 12:13 PM EDT
Texas now has two four-star commitments, with Kerwin Roach joining Eric Davis on Friday.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
Of Baylor’s five verbal commitments in the Class of 2015 four are guards, including their latest commit.
Oct 24, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Kentucky’s on top, but who’s next in line?
Oct 24, 2014, 12:06 AM EDT
Syracuse’s men’s basketball and football programs are under investigation, with the stakes being higher for Jim Boeheim’s program.
Oct 23, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Joshua Smith averaged 11.5 points per game before being ruled academically ineligible last season.
Oct 23, 2014, 10:49 PM EDT
Cam Payne became the star of Murray State as a freshman, but he wouldn’t have gotten there if he had a back up. Why?
Oct 23, 2014, 9:53 PM EDT
The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 added a new teammate Thursday.
Oct 23, 2014, 8:03 PM EDT
Shawn Lester averaged 11.9 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in the sixth man role last season.
- Manhattan’s returnees look to build on the achievements of last season’s senior class 0
- 2014-15 Season Preview: Rivals Iona, Manhattan have company in race to the top of the MAAC 0
- Top 25 Countdown: No. 11 Villanova Wildcats 0
- 2014-15 Season Preview: Kentucky’s loaded rotation leads nation’s best front courts 0
- Cameron Payne didn’t expect to fill Isaiah Canaan’s void at Murray State, but he did 0
- 2014-15 Season Preview: The Top 20 Perimeter Attacks 1
- Top 25 Countdown: No. 12 Wichita State 1
- UNC investigation states bogus classes pushed by academic counselors to athletes (7)
- Report: Texas plans to start paying their athletes $10,000 stipend (4)
- 2014-2015 Season Preview: College Basketball’s Top 13 Dunkers (VIDEOS) (3)
- Texas A&M lands another five-star center, has loaded 2015 recruiting class (2)
- Florida guard cleared to return to practice (2)