Nov 2, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 27-9, 11-7 Big Ten (5th); Lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16
Head Coach: Tom Crean
Key Losses: Verdell Jones III, Matt Roth
Newcomers: Yogi Ferrell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Jeremy Hollowell, Peter Jurkin
- G: Jordy Hulls, Sr.
– G: Victor Oladipo, Jr.
– F: Will Sheehey, Sr.
– F: Christian Watford, Sr.
– C: Cody Zeller, So.
– Bench: Maurice Creek, Jr.; Derek Elston, Sr.; Remy Abell, Sr.; Yogi Ferrell, Fr.; Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Fr.; Jeremy Hollowell, Fr.; Peter Jurkin, Fr.
Outlook: Indiana’s back. It’s official. And it’s a long way from being a secret. After winning their first 12 games of the 2011-2012 season — including a memorable, last-second victory over Kentucky — the Hoosiers cruised to 27 wins, a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten and a trip to the Sweet 16.
Much of that success can be attributed to last year’s freshmen class, which was headlined by none other than Preseason Player of the Year Cody Zeller. Zeller’s impact on this team and this program cannot be understated. Let’s forget, for a second, that he averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds. Let’s forget the 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks he added. Let’s ignore the 62.3% he shot from the field and the 75.5% he hit from the charity stripe. All that is known. He was a monster last year and is expected to be a Monstar this season.
But what hasn’t been discussed as much is something that I propose we start calling ‘the Zeller effect’. As a sophomore, Christian Watford shot 38.1% from three; as a junior he knocked them down at a 43.7% clip. As a sophomore, Jordy Hulls was a 41.4% three-point shooter; as a junior, he shot 49.3%. Will Sheehey went from 30.4% to 38.3%; Matt Roth went from 37.5% to 54.5%; Derek Elston went from 17.6% to 55.2%. Indiana, as a team, shot 34.6% on just over 17 threes per game in 2010-2011. In 2011-2012, the Hoosiers took just under 15 threes per game and hit them at a 43.1% clip.
It’s obvious that having Zeller would reduce Indiana’s need to rely on threes, especially tough threes at the end of a clock, but what those numbers tell you is that the attention Zeller gets on the block means that the Hoosiers that cannot be left open from beyond the arc are being left open. Zeller may have had just 45 assists last season, but his presence makes everyone else on Indiana that much better.
With essentially everyone from last season returning — Roth and Verdell Jones III are the only players Indiana loses — and a loaded recruiting class coming in this year, the offensive end of the floor should be the least of Tom Crean’s concerns.
Defensively, however, it is a different story. The biggest concern I have about the Hoosiers is that when their best offensive team is on the floor it could end up looking very different than their best defensive team. Hulls struggles to defend at the point guard spot, but he’s a lights-out shooter and the most efficient playmaker on Indiana’s team. Freshman Yogi Ferrell is a better defender, although some of that difference could be mitigated if Ferrell comes along offensively thoughout the year. Oladipo is a shut-down defender, but he only hit 20.8% from deep last year. Maurice Creek, who missed last season after suffering his third major injury and undergoing his third major surgery, has always been able to score, but can his body handle the rigors of the Big Ten? Christian Watford’s ability to shoot gives Zeller space in the paint, but he’s a far-cry from what you would consider a good front court defender.
Indiana is going to score a lot of points this season, but whether or not their defense improves will determine just how good this team ends up being.
The good news for Crean is that he’ll have no shortage of lineup options, as Indiana could feasibly go 13 deep if that was at all possible. I haven’t even mentioned guards Remy Abell and Austin Etherington or big men Jeremy Hollowell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Derek Elston or Peter Jurkin yet. Jurkin and Perea have some issues with the NCAA they need worked out still, but all six of those players could end up playing vital roles for the Hoosiers this season.
Predictions?: Naming the Hoosiers the No. 1 team in the country in the preseason means that we believe they are the most likely team to win the national title, but it doesn’t mean Indiana is anywhere near a lock. As much as any season in recent memory, this year is completely wide open. The Hoosiers may be the favorite, but if they can’t fix some of their problems on the defensive end of the floor, they could end up getting picked off in the NCAA tournament by a team that gets hot on the right night.
The other problem that Crean is going to have to deal with is managing egos. There are only going to be so many shots and minutes to go around, which means that someone is going to end up sitting on the bench more than expected and someone else is going to spend a lot of time setting screens or throwing entry passes. Can Crean keep everyone happy even when the rotation tightens in February? What happens if, for example, Ferrell beats out Hulls for the starting point guard spot in the middle of the season?
Crean will have his work cut out for him, but dealing with too much talent is a much better situation than where he was two years ago.
Sep 16, 2014, 10:54 AM EDT
Mudiays $1.2 million deal with a team in China will now be significantly supplemented.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:50 AM EDT
Have you ever seen ‘Goodfellas’? You’ll recognize one of the main players in this story.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Ivan Rabb is one of the best centers in the country.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:33 PM EDT
Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney has opened it back up.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:22 PM EDT
The Bearcats added a 2015 recruit on Monday night.
Sep 15, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Kansas begins a two-week Boot Camp today.
Sep 15, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Shaquille Johnson is in trouble at his new home.
Sep 15, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Things are getting interesting between the Pitinos as we get closer to the Minnesota and Louisville game.
Sep 15, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Florida International had some bad luck over the weekend.
Sep 15, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Charlotte head coach Alan Major has returned to the team.
CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UConn and Arizona land 2015 big men, 2015 commitments flying off the board
Sep 15, 2014, 4:40 PM EDT
News and notes from around the world of college basketball recruiting.
Sep 15, 2014, 4:10 PM EDT
Brown is a 6-foot-7 powerhouse that has drawn some comparisons to Stanley Johnson.
Sep 15, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT
It’s the second recruit UCLA has lost this week.
Sep 15, 2014, 1:55 PM EDT
The NCAA is trying to improve their ability to apply common sense to rules interpretations.
Sep 15, 2014, 1:02 PM EDT
They’ll be out there for six full days. To get tickets to watch a practice.
Sep 15, 2014, 12:32 PM EDT
Avery Harriman continues his third battle with leukemia.
Sep 15, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
It was less a shot at Coach K than it was a shot at USA Basketball.
Sep 15, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
The best players in the D.C. area competed at DMVElite 80 over the weekend.
Sep 14, 2014, 11:59 PM EDT
Of Wyoming’s five 2015 verbal commitments, three have come from Florida natives.
Sep 14, 2014, 10:08 PM EDT
The Tabor Academy forward picked Fordham over offers from Duquesne, Quinnipiac and Saint Joseph’s.
- Top prospect in Class of 2014 signs endorsement deal with Under Armour 0
- Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney decommits from Louisville 1
- CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UConn and Arizona land 2015 big men, 2015 commitments flying off the board 0
- USA Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski and thoughts on today’s ‘takedown’ 2
- Arizona lands four-star center to potential No. 1 recruiting class in 2015 0
- Allen Iverson, Georgetown legends return to campus for new John Thompson practice facility 3
- In-state power forward verbally commits to UConn 0
- Former Indiana guard A.J. Guyton writes an open letter to Bob Knight (6)
- Four-star power forward becomes Indiana’s first 2015 commitment (3)
- Arizona State commit arrested for allegedly shoplifting less than $20 in DVDs from Walmart (3)
- Allen Iverson, Georgetown legends return to campus for new John Thompson practice facility (3)
- Villanova lands commitment from five-star point guard Jalen Brunson (2)