Nov 2, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 27-9, 11-7 Big Ten (5th); Lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16
Head Coach: Tom Crean
Key Losses: Verdell Jones III, Matt Roth
Newcomers: Yogi Ferrell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Jeremy Hollowell, Peter Jurkin
– G: Jordy Hulls, Sr.
– G: Victor Oladipo, Jr.
– F: Will Sheehey, Sr.
– F: Christian Watford, Sr.
– C: Cody Zeller, So.
– Bench: Maurice Creek, Jr.; Derek Elston, Sr.; Remy Abell, Sr.; Yogi Ferrell, Fr.; Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Fr.; Jeremy Hollowell, Fr.; Peter Jurkin, Fr.
Outlook: Indiana’s back. It’s official. And it’s a long way from being a secret. After winning their first 12 games of the 2011-2012 season — including a memorable, last-second victory over Kentucky — the Hoosiers cruised to 27 wins, a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten and a trip to the Sweet 16.
Much of that success can be attributed to last year’s freshmen class, which was headlined by none other than Preseason Player of the Year Cody Zeller. Zeller’s impact on this team and this program cannot be understated. Let’s forget, for a second, that he averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds. Let’s forget the 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks he added. Let’s ignore the 62.3% he shot from the field and the 75.5% he hit from the charity stripe. All that is known. He was a monster last year and is expected to be a Monstar this season.
But what hasn’t been discussed as much is something that I propose we start calling ‘the Zeller effect’. As a sophomore, Christian Watford shot 38.1% from three; as a junior he knocked them down at a 43.7% clip. As a sophomore, Jordy Hulls was a 41.4% three-point shooter; as a junior, he shot 49.3%. Will Sheehey went from 30.4% to 38.3%; Matt Roth went from 37.5% to 54.5%; Derek Elston went from 17.6% to 55.2%. Indiana, as a team, shot 34.6% on just over 17 threes per game in 2010-2011. In 2011-2012, the Hoosiers took just under 15 threes per game and hit them at a 43.1% clip.
It’s obvious that having Zeller would reduce Indiana’s need to rely on threes, especially tough threes at the end of a clock, but what those numbers tell you is that the attention Zeller gets on the block means that the Hoosiers that cannot be left open from beyond the arc are being left open. Zeller may have had just 45 assists last season, but his presence makes everyone else on Indiana that much better.
With essentially everyone from last season returning — Roth and Verdell Jones III are the only players Indiana loses — and a loaded recruiting class coming in this year, the offensive end of the floor should be the least of Tom Crean’s concerns.
Defensively, however, it is a different story. The biggest concern I have about the Hoosiers is that when their best offensive team is on the floor it could end up looking very different than their best defensive team. Hulls struggles to defend at the point guard spot, but he’s a lights-out shooter and the most efficient playmaker on Indiana’s team. Freshman Yogi Ferrell is a better defender, although some of that difference could be mitigated if Ferrell comes along offensively thoughout the year. Oladipo is a shut-down defender, but he only hit 20.8% from deep last year. Maurice Creek, who missed last season after suffering his third major injury and undergoing his third major surgery, has always been able to score, but can his body handle the rigors of the Big Ten? Christian Watford’s ability to shoot gives Zeller space in the paint, but he’s a far-cry from what you would consider a good front court defender.
Indiana is going to score a lot of points this season, but whether or not their defense improves will determine just how good this team ends up being.
The good news for Crean is that he’ll have no shortage of lineup options, as Indiana could feasibly go 13 deep if that was at all possible. I haven’t even mentioned guards Remy Abell and Austin Etherington or big men Jeremy Hollowell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Derek Elston or Peter Jurkin yet. Jurkin and Perea have some issues with the NCAA they need worked out still, but all six of those players could end up playing vital roles for the Hoosiers this season.
Predictions?: Naming the Hoosiers the No. 1 team in the country in the preseason means that we believe they are the most likely team to win the national title, but it doesn’t mean Indiana is anywhere near a lock. As much as any season in recent memory, this year is completely wide open. The Hoosiers may be the favorite, but if they can’t fix some of their problems on the defensive end of the floor, they could end up getting picked off in the NCAA tournament by a team that gets hot on the right night.
The other problem that Crean is going to have to deal with is managing egos. There are only going to be so many shots and minutes to go around, which means that someone is going to end up sitting on the bench more than expected and someone else is going to spend a lot of time setting screens or throwing entry passes. Can Crean keep everyone happy even when the rotation tightens in February? What happens if, for example, Ferrell beats out Hulls for the starting point guard spot in the middle of the season?
Crean will have his work cut out for him, but dealing with too much talent is a much better situation than where he was two years ago.
Sep 1, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
Bryce Alford is UCLA’s top returning scorer.
Sep 1, 2015, 8:42 PM EDT
Denzel Valentine will be in contention for Big Ten Player of the Year this season.
Sep 1, 2015, 7:16 PM EDT
Malik Monk is rated as the sixth-best player in 2016.
Sep 1, 2015, 6:33 PM EDT
Duke gets another five-star recruit.
Sep 1, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
UConn landed its second four-star recruit in the Class of 2016.
Sep 1, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
The GW senior finished with 19 points.
Sep 1, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Jayce Johnson is focusing on five schools as he’s set four official visits.
Sep 1, 2015, 2:00 PM EDT
Georgetown has some very intriguing games on the non-conference slate.
Sep 1, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Arkansas won’t be getting a boost from the four-star big man.
Sep 1, 2015, 11:30 AM EDT
Pitt bolsters its backcourt with the late addition of a junior college guard.
Sep 1, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Conference realignment is still happening at the lower levels as Coastal Carolina makes a move to the Sun Belt.
Sep 1, 2015, 9:05 AM EDT
Shamorie Ponds is one of the best bucket-getting guards in the 2016 class.
Aug 31, 2015, 11:15 PM EDT
Malik Monk is rated No. 6 overall in the Class of 2016 by Rivals.
Aug 31, 2015, 9:44 PM EDT
It’s the second commit in as many nights for the Cyclones.
Aug 31, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Javion Ogunyemi averaged 9.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in 2014-15.
Aug 31, 2015, 6:10 PM EDT
The two teams last met in the 2013 Big East Tournament
Aug 31, 2015, 4:44 PM EDT
Indiana dismissed the forward after his second alcohol-related incident.
Aug 31, 2015, 4:35 PM EDT
Cheick Diallo is still waiting to hear from the NCAA Eligibility Center.
Aug 31, 2015, 2:05 PM EDT
Frank Jackson will make his college decision on Tuesday.
Aug 31, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Rawle Alkins is one of the best players to come out of New York in years.
- Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan makes another statement wavering on potential retirement 0
- Cody Zeller, Indiana president speak out against recent athlete legal issues 0
- Five-star 2016 combo guard cuts list to four 0
- Xavier, Mount St. Joseph to launch the ‘Lauren Hill Tip-Off Classic’ 0
- Tai Wynyard: ‘I will be coming to UK in December’ 0
- Tom Izzo, 30 second shot clocks, and why zone presses will be more popular this year 1
- Kentucky lands a commitment from four-star 2016 forward 0
- Blue Ribbon announces their preseason all-american team (3)
- 10 year old Ohio State fan worried heart surgery would make him love Michigan (1)
- Seton Hall to give scholarship basketball players $2,600 towards cost of attendance (1)
- Indiana president none too pleased with recent legal issues involving student-athletes (1)
- Throwback Thursday: When we realized Russell Westbrook was a freak (VIDEO) (1)