Nov 2, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
Last Season: 27-9, 11-7 Big Ten (5th); Lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16
Head Coach: Tom Crean
Key Losses: Verdell Jones III, Matt Roth
Newcomers: Yogi Ferrell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Jeremy Hollowell, Peter Jurkin
– G: Jordy Hulls, Sr.
– G: Victor Oladipo, Jr.
– F: Will Sheehey, Sr.
– F: Christian Watford, Sr.
– C: Cody Zeller, So.
– Bench: Maurice Creek, Jr.; Derek Elston, Sr.; Remy Abell, Sr.; Yogi Ferrell, Fr.; Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Fr.; Jeremy Hollowell, Fr.; Peter Jurkin, Fr.
Outlook: Indiana’s back. It’s official. And it’s a long way from being a secret. After winning their first 12 games of the 2011-2012 season — including a memorable, last-second victory over Kentucky — the Hoosiers cruised to 27 wins, a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten and a trip to the Sweet 16.
Much of that success can be attributed to last year’s freshmen class, which was headlined by none other than Preseason Player of the Year Cody Zeller. Zeller’s impact on this team and this program cannot be understated. Let’s forget, for a second, that he averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds. Let’s forget the 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks he added. Let’s ignore the 62.3% he shot from the field and the 75.5% he hit from the charity stripe. All that is known. He was a monster last year and is expected to be a Monstar this season.
But what hasn’t been discussed as much is something that I propose we start calling ‘the Zeller effect’. As a sophomore, Christian Watford shot 38.1% from three; as a junior he knocked them down at a 43.7% clip. As a sophomore, Jordy Hulls was a 41.4% three-point shooter; as a junior, he shot 49.3%. Will Sheehey went from 30.4% to 38.3%; Matt Roth went from 37.5% to 54.5%; Derek Elston went from 17.6% to 55.2%. Indiana, as a team, shot 34.6% on just over 17 threes per game in 2010-2011. In 2011-2012, the Hoosiers took just under 15 threes per game and hit them at a 43.1% clip.
It’s obvious that having Zeller would reduce Indiana’s need to rely on threes, especially tough threes at the end of a clock, but what those numbers tell you is that the attention Zeller gets on the block means that the Hoosiers that cannot be left open from beyond the arc are being left open. Zeller may have had just 45 assists last season, but his presence makes everyone else on Indiana that much better.
With essentially everyone from last season returning — Roth and Verdell Jones III are the only players Indiana loses — and a loaded recruiting class coming in this year, the offensive end of the floor should be the least of Tom Crean’s concerns.
Defensively, however, it is a different story. The biggest concern I have about the Hoosiers is that when their best offensive team is on the floor it could end up looking very different than their best defensive team. Hulls struggles to defend at the point guard spot, but he’s a lights-out shooter and the most efficient playmaker on Indiana’s team. Freshman Yogi Ferrell is a better defender, although some of that difference could be mitigated if Ferrell comes along offensively thoughout the year. Oladipo is a shut-down defender, but he only hit 20.8% from deep last year. Maurice Creek, who missed last season after suffering his third major injury and undergoing his third major surgery, has always been able to score, but can his body handle the rigors of the Big Ten? Christian Watford’s ability to shoot gives Zeller space in the paint, but he’s a far-cry from what you would consider a good front court defender.
Indiana is going to score a lot of points this season, but whether or not their defense improves will determine just how good this team ends up being.
The good news for Crean is that he’ll have no shortage of lineup options, as Indiana could feasibly go 13 deep if that was at all possible. I haven’t even mentioned guards Remy Abell and Austin Etherington or big men Jeremy Hollowell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Derek Elston or Peter Jurkin yet. Jurkin and Perea have some issues with the NCAA they need worked out still, but all six of those players could end up playing vital roles for the Hoosiers this season.
Predictions?: Naming the Hoosiers the No. 1 team in the country in the preseason means that we believe they are the most likely team to win the national title, but it doesn’t mean Indiana is anywhere near a lock. As much as any season in recent memory, this year is completely wide open. The Hoosiers may be the favorite, but if they can’t fix some of their problems on the defensive end of the floor, they could end up getting picked off in the NCAA tournament by a team that gets hot on the right night.
The other problem that Crean is going to have to deal with is managing egos. There are only going to be so many shots and minutes to go around, which means that someone is going to end up sitting on the bench more than expected and someone else is going to spend a lot of time setting screens or throwing entry passes. Can Crean keep everyone happy even when the rotation tightens in February? What happens if, for example, Ferrell beats out Hulls for the starting point guard spot in the middle of the season?
Crean will have his work cut out for him, but dealing with too much talent is a much better situation than where he was two years ago.
Apr 26, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
Collins averaged 7.1 points and 5.2 assists per game last season, and his arrival could lead to Alex Caruso getting more scoring opportunities off the ball.
Apr 26, 2015, 7:35 PM EDT
Robinson has quite the rebuilding job on his hands, but guard LeAntwan Luckett (16.3 ppg) is one of the team’s top four scorers who have eligibility remaining.
Apr 26, 2015, 7:05 PM EDT
Green was released from his National Letter of Intent to Arizona State a couple weeks ago.
Apr 26, 2015, 6:02 PM EDT
In addition to making graduates sit out a year, there’s also consideration of the idea that schools can restrict where they can go.
Apr 26, 2015, 4:05 PM EDT
Nick Noskowiak joins former Arkansas guard Nick Babb as players who have committed to Iowa State this month.
Apr 26, 2015, 2:29 PM EDT
Skinner was the longtime coach of Boston College.
Apr 26, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
Avery Johnson is touring with Nick Saban to get more familiar with being a head coach at Alabama.
UAA Day 2: The return of Seventh Woods; Markelle Fultz is the real deal; Josh Jackson’s up-and-down day
Apr 26, 2015, 11:30 AM EDT
The Under Armour Association has plenty of talented players in its league this season, including former mixtape star Seventh Woods and the No. 1 player in the Class of 2016, Josh Jackson.
Apr 26, 2015, 10:15 AM EDT
Malik Monk had a dominating effort on Saturday while Harry Giles didn’t make much of an impact.
Apr 26, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Josh Jackson went for 41 points, seven assists and six rebounds at the Under Armour Association.
Apr 26, 2015, 8:54 AM EDT
Ferrell would have been a second round pick.
Apr 25, 2015, 10:19 PM EDT
Taylor averaged 13.1 points and 4.6 assists per game last season, and his decision to return is a nice boost for head coach Shaka Smart.
Apr 25, 2015, 9:55 PM EDT
Graduate students Max Bielfeldt and Tyler Harris were in Ames this weekend, as was former Marquette commit Nick Noskowiak.
Wisconsin’s Josh Gasser, Duje Dukan serve as honorary coaches for football team’s spring game (VIDEO)
Apr 25, 2015, 8:55 PM EDT
Gasser’s team beat Dukan’s by the final score of 35-7.
Apr 25, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Turner won MAC Rookie of the Year honors in 2013-14.
Apr 25, 2015, 5:59 PM EDT
Junior Etou averaged 7.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season.
Apr 25, 2015, 4:33 PM EDT
King averaged 7.2 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last season at Memphis.
Apr 25, 2015, 3:12 PM EDT
Thornton will fill the void left by Tyus Jones at the point.
Apr 25, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
Oregon landed a commitment from a former San Diego State pledge.
Apr 25, 2015, 11:45 AM EDT
Maryland returns another reserve guard for next season.
- Report: Yogi Ferrell to return to Indiana for senior season 0
- Texas point guard Isaiah Taylor returning for junior season 1
- EYBL Day 1: Jayson Tatum vs. Michael Porter Jr.; De’Aaron Fox, Jarred Vanderbilt go for big outings 0
- 2015 College Basketball Updated Early Entry List 14
- Providence announces return of point guard Kris Dunn for 2015-16 season 0
- Five-star guard Malik Newman commits to Mississippi State 0
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too-Early Preseason Rankings 0
- Duke lands commitment from elite PG Derryck Thornton, who will reclass (18)
- 2015 College Basketball Updated Early Entry List (14)
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too Early Preseason Top 25 (9)
- Louisville adds key grad transfer Damion Lee (6)
- All-MAC guard Shannon Evans to transfer from Buffalo; is athletics director Danny White at fault? (3)