Skip to content

Top 25 Countdown: No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers

Nov 2, 2012, 9:00 AM EST

spt-110222-tom-crean_nbcsports-grid-8x2 AP

Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.

To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To look at the rest of the Top 25, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.

Last Season: 27-9, 11-7 Big Ten (5th); Lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16

Head Coach: Tom Crean

Key Losses: Verdell Jones III, Matt Roth

Newcomers: Yogi Ferrell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Jeremy Hollowell, Peter Jurkin

Projected Lineup:

- G: Jordy Hulls, Sr.
G: Victor Oladipo, Jr.
F: Will Sheehey, Sr.
F: Christian Watford, Sr.
C: Cody Zeller, So.
Bench: Maurice Creek, Jr.; Derek Elston, Sr.; Remy Abell, Sr.; Yogi Ferrell, Fr.; Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Fr.; Jeremy Hollowell, Fr.; Peter Jurkin, Fr.

Outlook: Indiana’s back. It’s official. And it’s a long way from being a secret. After winning their first 12 games of the 2011-2012 season — including a memorable, last-second victory over Kentucky — the Hoosiers cruised to 27 wins, a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten and a trip to the Sweet 16.

Much of that success can be attributed to last year’s freshmen class, which was headlined by none other than Preseason Player of the Year Cody Zeller. Zeller’s impact on this team and this program cannot be understated. Let’s forget, for a second, that he averaged 15.6 points and 6.6 rebounds. Let’s forget the 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks he added. Let’s ignore the 62.3% he shot from the field and the 75.5% he hit from the charity stripe. All that is known. He was a monster last year and is expected to be a Monstar this season.

But what hasn’t been discussed as much is something that I propose we start calling ‘the Zeller effect’. As a sophomore, Christian Watford shot 38.1% from three; as a junior he knocked them down at a 43.7% clip. As a sophomore, Jordy Hulls was a 41.4% three-point shooter; as a junior, he shot 49.3%. Will Sheehey went from 30.4% to 38.3%; Matt Roth went from 37.5% to 54.5%; Derek Elston went from 17.6% to 55.2%. Indiana, as a team, shot 34.6% on just over 17 threes per game in 2010-2011. In 2011-2012, the Hoosiers took just under 15 threes per game and hit them at a 43.1% clip.

It’s obvious that having Zeller would reduce Indiana’s need to rely on threes, especially tough threes at the end of a clock, but what those numbers tell you is that the attention Zeller gets on the block means that the Hoosiers that cannot be left open from beyond the arc are being left open. Zeller may have had just 45 assists last season, but his presence makes everyone else on Indiana that much better.

With essentially everyone from last season returning — Roth and Verdell Jones III are the only players Indiana loses — and a loaded recruiting class coming in this year, the offensive end of the floor should be the least of Tom Crean’s concerns.

Defensively, however, it is a different story. The biggest concern I have about the Hoosiers is that when their best offensive team is on the floor it could end up looking very different than their best defensive team. Hulls struggles to defend at the point guard spot, but he’s a lights-out shooter and the most efficient playmaker on Indiana’s team. Freshman Yogi Ferrell is a better defender, although some of that difference could be mitigated if Ferrell comes along offensively thoughout the year. Oladipo is a shut-down defender, but he only hit 20.8% from deep last year. Maurice Creek, who missed last season after suffering his third major injury and undergoing his third major surgery, has always been able to score, but can his body handle the rigors of the Big Ten? Christian Watford’s ability to shoot gives Zeller space in the paint, but he’s a far-cry from what you would consider a good front court defender.

Indiana is going to score a lot of points this season, but whether or not their defense improves will determine just how good this team ends up being.

The good news for Crean is that he’ll have no shortage of lineup options, as Indiana could feasibly go 13 deep if that was at all possible. I haven’t even mentioned guards Remy Abell and Austin Etherington or big men Jeremy Hollowell, Hanner Mosquera-Perea, Derek Elston or Peter Jurkin yet. Jurkin and Perea have some issues with the NCAA they need worked out still, but all six of those players could end up playing vital roles for the Hoosiers this season.

Predictions?: Naming the Hoosiers the No. 1 team in the country in the preseason means that we believe they are the most likely team to win the national title, but it doesn’t mean Indiana is anywhere near a lock. As much as any season in recent memory, this year is completely wide open. The Hoosiers may be the favorite, but if they can’t fix some of their problems on the defensive end of the floor, they could end up getting picked off in the NCAA tournament by a team that gets hot on the right night.

The other problem that Crean is going to have to deal with is managing egos. There are only going to be so many shots and minutes to go around, which means that someone is going to end up sitting on the bench more than expected and someone else is going to spend a lot of time setting screens or throwing entry passes. Can Crean keep everyone happy even when the rotation tightens in February? What happens if, for example, Ferrell beats out Hulls for the starting point guard spot in the middle of the season?

Crean will have his work cut out for him, but dealing with too much talent is a much better situation than where he was two years ago.

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

Latest Posts
  1. Cincinnati guard granted release; will likely be a graduate transfer

    Mar 3, 2015, 7:00 PM EST

    (Getty Images) Getty Images

    Cincinnati could be losing an experienced guard for next season.

  2. Jahlil Okafor, D’Angelo Russell among 10 finalists for Wayman Tisdale Award as nation’s best freshman

    Mar 3, 2015, 6:00 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    A lot of productive players on the Wayman Tisdale Award finalist list, led by Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell.

  3. America East Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 3, 2015, 4:52 PM EST

    AP AP

    Albany is looking for its third NCAA tournament appearance in as many years. Stony Brook is attempting to once again get over that conference tournament hump.

  4. Player of the Year Power Rankings: It’s Frank Kaminsky’s award to win

    Mar 3, 2015, 3:47 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Kaminsky has all but locked up the award in my mind.

  5. Ohio Valley Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 3, 2015, 2:32 PM EST

    Murray State's Cameron Payne (AP) AP

    Murray State rolled through the OVC unbeaten and enters the conference tournament as the heavy favorite.

  6. Duke AD defends handling of allegations against Rasheed Sulaimon

    Mar 3, 2015, 1:36 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Rasheed Sulaimon was reportedly publicly accused of sexual assault.

  7. Butler gets starting forward back from broken hand

    Mar 3, 2015, 12:54 PM EST

    Villanova v Butler Getty Images

    Andrew Chrabascz had missed the last two weeks with a broken hand

  8. Big South Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 3, 2015, 12:05 PM EST

    John Brown Getty Images) Getty Images

    A three-game margin separated the top seven teams, so don’t be surprised if things don’t go according to the seeds in Conway, South Carolina.

  9. Dan Patrick Show: Frank Kaminsky joins to talk about his senior year (VIDEO)

    Mar 3, 2015, 11:42 AM EST

    Frank Kaminsky, David Rivers, Walter Pitchford AP

    The National Player of the Year talks hoops, soccer and senior years.

  10. ‘I Hate Christian Laettner’ trailer released (VIDEO)

    Mar 3, 2015, 10:12 AM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Last year, the college hoops 30 for 30 was “Requiem for the Big East”.

  11. NEC Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 3, 2015, 9:15 AM EST

    Jalen Cannon (AP Photo) Jalen Cannon (AP Photo)

    Can St. Francis (NY) land their first-ever NCAA tournament berth?

  12. Seton Hall adds three-star wing commitment for 2015 class

    Mar 2, 2015, 8:30 PM EST

    AP Photo AP

    Seton Hall added to its 2015 recruiting haul on Monday.

  13. Alabama forward out for the season with injury

    Mar 2, 2015, 7:20 PM EST

    (Getty Images) Getty Images

    Alabama loses another starter as the regular season winds down.

  14. Patriot League Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 2, 2015, 6:19 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Bucknell will be looking to make their third NCAA tournament appearance under Dave Paulsen.

  15. Pregame Shootaround: Three great games on TV tonight

    Mar 2, 2015, 3:30 PM EST

    Buddy Hield AP

    The Big 12 and the ACC will both be in action.