Dec 12, 2012, 4:00 PM EDT
For college students and college basketball fans, Exam Week is the worst week on the schedule. For students, this week is the culmination of three months worth of procrastination, cliff notes and Wikipedia. For college basketball fans, it’s the lightest week of hoops action we will see all season.
With so very little going on this week in terms of action, the staff at College Basketball Talk is going back to school. Over the next five days, the CBT Staff will be responsible for answering an essay question in one of five different subjects.
Today we have the dreaded math exam.
The use of tempo-free and advanced statistics has become more commonplace in recent years thanks to the work of guys like Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner. What is your opinion on the use of advanced statistics as analysis aids. What value do these metrics add to post-game evaluation in your opinion. Please use at least one example of accurate or misleading statistics in your response.
By Rob Dauster
The advent of advanced statistics in college basketball is incredibly useful.
Between Kenpom’s efficiency profiles, the in-depth player and team breakdowns available on Synergy and all of the other sites doing yeoman’s work to try to enlighten us about and dispel myths about our favorite teams, there’s no shortage of data available for a college hoops junky to get their fix.
The key, however, is understanding how to use that information in concert with what actually happens on a basketball court.
Advanced statistics have really taken off over the last decade in all sports, not just basketball. The most famous case is that of Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics GM that was the subject of the ‘Moneyball’. He used sabermetric principles to find value in players that others had cast aside, and as a result was able to build the A’s into one of the best teams in baseball despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league.
But focusing on stats works much better in baseball than it does in hoops because baseball is a game made up of a series of events involving individuals. A pitcher throws a pitch, the hitter swings and puts the ball in play. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Basketball is a much more free-flowing, one that requires five players to work together both offensively and defensively. So much of what happens on the court — Who can execute offense effectively? How well does a team communicate defensively? Is a player a good rebounder because he’s simply bigger and more athletic, or does he understand how to box out? Who is a team’s leader? — doesn’t show up on a stat sheet or a Kenpom page.
The perfect example is the argument involving Marcus Smart.
Smart, a freshman, is Oklahoma State’s starting point guard, a top ten recruit and, thus far, the difference maker for the Cowboys. He’s averaging 13.0 points, 7.4 boards and 5.0 assists for the Pokes, but what he’s done setting a tone defensively and in the locker room is why Travis Ford’s club currently owns wins over Tennessee and NC State. He’s played like an all-american, and was called the best player in the country through the first month of the season by Mike DeCourcy.
DeCourcy doesn’t believe in advanced analytics, however, which is why he’s probably unaware that Smart has an effective field goal percentage of 39.7% — he’s shooting 20.6% from three and 43.9% from two — and an offensive rating of 99.3 (he averages 0.993 points per possession used, which isn’t very good) despite using 28.0% of Oklahoma State’s possessions when he’s on the floor, a very high number. Those ugly numbers are why John Gasaway, one of college basketball’s leading ‘stat nerds’, has Smart ranked as the 14th-best freshman thus far this season.
And, as I wrote yesterday, neither of these gentlemen are right, because you simply cannot ignore a) the effect that Smart’s presence on the floor has had for Oklahoma State this year, or b) just how inefficient Smart has been with the ball in his hands. He may be a great leader, a great defender and a better-than-we-thought creator, but that doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t shot the ball well at all and he’s turned the ball over far too often.
Advanced statistics are most effective when they are used to help quantify trends that your eyes tell you exist or as a way to determine what to watch for when a certain team takes the floor.
It’s inarguable that understanding efficiency breakdowns and possession-based logs, like Synergy’s database, make you smarter about basketball and what a specific team or player is doing on the court.
But it’s also impossible to use those number correctly without being able to watch a game and understand what is happening and why it happens that way.
The two schools of thought are not mutually exclusive. But if they aren’t used correctly, they are misleading and unnecessary.
Professor’s Notes: I really wanted to give you a bad grade. The rise of #DausterMath gave me little reason to believe that you would be able to handle this question. But you nailed it. Kudos for the use of words like “advent”, “yeoman”, and the ‘Moneyball’ reference was sublime. You were on pace for an A+, but points are being docked for starting a sentence with “And”.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:33 PM EDT
Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney has opened it back up.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:22 PM EDT
The Bearcats added a 2015 recruit on Monday night.
Sep 15, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Kansas begins a two-week Boot Camp today.
Sep 15, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Shaquille Johnson is in trouble at his new home.
Sep 15, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Things are getting interesting between the Pitinos as we get closer to the Minnesota and Louisville game.
Sep 15, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Sep 15, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Charlotte head coach Alan Major has returned to the team.
CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UConn and Arizona land 2015 big men, 2015 commitments flying off the board
Sep 15, 2014, 4:40 PM EDT
News and notes from around the world of college basketball recruiting.
Sep 15, 2014, 4:10 PM EDT
Brown is a 6-foot-7 powerhouse that has drawn some comparisons to Stanley Johnson.
Sep 15, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT
It’s the second recruit UCLA has lost this week.
Sep 15, 2014, 1:55 PM EDT
The NCAA is trying to improve their ability to apply common sense to rules interpretations.
Sep 15, 2014, 1:02 PM EDT
They’ll be out there for six full days. To get tickets to watch a practice.
Sep 15, 2014, 12:32 PM EDT
Avery Harriman continues his third battle with leukemia.
Sep 15, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
It was less a shot at Coach K than it was a shot at USA Basketball.
Sep 15, 2014, 11:03 AM EDT
The best players in the D.C. area competed at DMVElite 80 over the weekend.
Sep 14, 2014, 11:59 PM EDT
Of Wyoming’s five 2015 verbal commitments, three have come from Florida natives.
Sep 14, 2014, 10:08 PM EDT
The Tabor Academy forward picked Fordham over offers from Duquesne, Quinnipiac and Saint Joseph’s.
Sep 14, 2014, 8:47 PM EDT
With Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks both being seniors, this is an important addition for the Broncos.
Sep 14, 2014, 7:50 PM EDT
The Roselle Catholic (New Jersey) product is expected pick from Rhode Island, Seton Hall and South Carolina.
Sep 14, 2014, 6:15 PM EDT
Playing with an all-star team this summer helped the Arkansas transfer shake off the rust accumulated during his season on the sidelines.
- Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney decommits from Louisville 0
- CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UConn and Arizona land 2015 big men, 2015 commitments flying off the board 0
- USA Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski and thoughts on today’s ‘takedown’ 2
- Arizona lands four-star center to potential No. 1 recruiting class in 2015 0
- Allen Iverson, Georgetown legends return to campus for new John Thompson practice facility 3
- In-state power forward verbally commits to UConn 0
- Former Indiana guard A.J. Guyton writes an open letter to Bob Knight 6
- Former Indiana guard A.J. Guyton writes an open letter to Bob Knight (6)
- Four-star power forward becomes Indiana’s first 2015 commitment (3)
- Arizona State commit arrested for allegedly shoplifting less than $20 in DVDs from Walmart (3)
- Allen Iverson, Georgetown legends return to campus for new John Thompson practice facility (3)
- Villanova lands commitment from five-star point guard Jalen Brunson (2)