Dec 12, 2012, 4:00 PM EDT
For college students and college basketball fans, Exam Week is the worst week on the schedule. For students, this week is the culmination of three months worth of procrastination, cliff notes and Wikipedia. For college basketball fans, it’s the lightest week of hoops action we will see all season.
With so very little going on this week in terms of action, the staff at College Basketball Talk is going back to school. Over the next five days, the CBT Staff will be responsible for answering an essay question in one of five different subjects.
Today we have the dreaded math exam.
The use of tempo-free and advanced statistics has become more commonplace in recent years thanks to the work of guys like Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner. What is your opinion on the use of advanced statistics as analysis aids. What value do these metrics add to post-game evaluation in your opinion. Please use at least one example of accurate or misleading statistics in your response.
By Rob Dauster
The advent of advanced statistics in college basketball is incredibly useful.
Between Kenpom’s efficiency profiles, the in-depth player and team breakdowns available on Synergy and all of the other sites doing yeoman’s work to try to enlighten us about and dispel myths about our favorite teams, there’s no shortage of data available for a college hoops junky to get their fix.
The key, however, is understanding how to use that information in concert with what actually happens on a basketball court.
Advanced statistics have really taken off over the last decade in all sports, not just basketball. The most famous case is that of Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics GM that was the subject of the ‘Moneyball’. He used sabermetric principles to find value in players that others had cast aside, and as a result was able to build the A’s into one of the best teams in baseball despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league.
But focusing on stats works much better in baseball than it does in hoops because baseball is a game made up of a series of events involving individuals. A pitcher throws a pitch, the hitter swings and puts the ball in play. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Basketball is a much more free-flowing, one that requires five players to work together both offensively and defensively. So much of what happens on the court — Who can execute offense effectively? How well does a team communicate defensively? Is a player a good rebounder because he’s simply bigger and more athletic, or does he understand how to box out? Who is a team’s leader? — doesn’t show up on a stat sheet or a Kenpom page.
The perfect example is the argument involving Marcus Smart.
Smart, a freshman, is Oklahoma State’s starting point guard, a top ten recruit and, thus far, the difference maker for the Cowboys. He’s averaging 13.0 points, 7.4 boards and 5.0 assists for the Pokes, but what he’s done setting a tone defensively and in the locker room is why Travis Ford’s club currently owns wins over Tennessee and NC State. He’s played like an all-american, and was called the best player in the country through the first month of the season by Mike DeCourcy.
DeCourcy doesn’t believe in advanced analytics, however, which is why he’s probably unaware that Smart has an effective field goal percentage of 39.7% — he’s shooting 20.6% from three and 43.9% from two — and an offensive rating of 99.3 (he averages 0.993 points per possession used, which isn’t very good) despite using 28.0% of Oklahoma State’s possessions when he’s on the floor, a very high number. Those ugly numbers are why John Gasaway, one of college basketball’s leading ‘stat nerds’, has Smart ranked as the 14th-best freshman thus far this season.
And, as I wrote yesterday, neither of these gentlemen are right, because you simply cannot ignore a) the effect that Smart’s presence on the floor has had for Oklahoma State this year, or b) just how inefficient Smart has been with the ball in his hands. He may be a great leader, a great defender and a better-than-we-thought creator, but that doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t shot the ball well at all and he’s turned the ball over far too often.
Advanced statistics are most effective when they are used to help quantify trends that your eyes tell you exist or as a way to determine what to watch for when a certain team takes the floor.
It’s inarguable that understanding efficiency breakdowns and possession-based logs, like Synergy’s database, make you smarter about basketball and what a specific team or player is doing on the court.
But it’s also impossible to use those number correctly without being able to watch a game and understand what is happening and why it happens that way.
The two schools of thought are not mutually exclusive. But if they aren’t used correctly, they are misleading and unnecessary.
Professor’s Notes: I really wanted to give you a bad grade. The rise of #DausterMath gave me little reason to believe that you would be able to handle this question. But you nailed it. Kudos for the use of words like “advent”, “yeoman”, and the ‘Moneyball’ reference was sublime. You were on pace for an A+, but points are being docked for starting a sentence with “And”.
Jul 23, 2014, 9:59 PM EDT
Perry’s been at USC Upstate since 2009, and among the players he’s helped recruit was former great Torrey Craig.
Jul 23, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Brown averaged 5.5 points per game and made 13 starts in 35 appearances for the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Jul 23, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Lindsay played his freshman season at Kansas
Jul 23, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Beasley has been one of the nations top performers over the last three months
Jul 23, 2014, 3:52 PM EDT
Thomas is a bulldozer on the block.
Jul 23, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
It’s the latest in a long line of bourbon bottles commemorating celebrities in the state.
Jul 23, 2014, 1:45 PM EDT
Rick vs. Richard could get awkward for the rest of the family
Jul 23, 2014, 12:57 PM EDT
Will this be enough for Charleston to finally get rid of their embattled head coach?
Jul 23, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
Blakeney is now on the radar of programs like Kentucky and Louisville.
Jul 23, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Iowa State repainted their court.
Jul 22, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
The College of Charleston Board of Trustees meets on Wednesday.
Jul 22, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
The transfer forward will miss the first nine games of the season.
Jul 22, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Seven minutes of highlights from this past weekend’s Nike Peach Jam.
Jul 22, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
But they aren’t yet eligible for the NCAA tournament. Click to see why.
Jul 22, 2014, 5:54 PM EDT
Isaiah Austin is returning to Baylor. Once he gets his degree, he’ll have a job with the NBA.
Jul 22, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
Imagine 6-foot-8, 235-pound Harrell in a helmet and shoulder pads.
Jul 22, 2014, 3:16 PM EDT
The second installment of our weekly awards.
Jul 22, 2014, 1:42 PM EDT
He’ll be out for two months.
Jul 22, 2014, 1:04 PM EDT
Josh Jackson, Jaylen Brown, Diamond Stone, and more.
Jul 22, 2014, 11:44 AM EDT
Niang, who has dropped some 25 pounds since the end of the season, is looking to have an even greater impact as the Cyclones work to account for the losses of Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane.
- Malik Beasley looking to capitalize on a big spring, summer 0
- Top 15 recruit Antonio Blakeney has made the ‘jump’ — literally — to elite status 2
- July Live Period Week Two Superlatives 0
- Seven Takeaways from the Under Armour Finals 0
- Iowa State’s Georges Niang carries extra motivation – and less weight – into 2014-15 0
- Emmanuel Mudiay to China makes him even more of a case-study 0
- Four-star Class of 2016 guard Bruce Brown gave up football to focus on basketball 0
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- Chris Walker looks like he’s spent some time in the gym (PHOTO) (3)
- NCAA gets rid of name-likeness release form for student-athletes (3)
- Isaiah Austin has a job with the NBA once he finishes degree at Baylor (2)
- Missouri State’s Marcus Marshall works to strengthen knee, leadership abilities (2)