Duke headlines first NCAA tournament projection of 2013

Dave Ommen

Jan 8, 2013, 8:45 AM EDT

Leave a comment

Rasheed Sulaimon, Mason Plumlee, Quinn Cook, Josh Hairston

Through the first two months of the college basketball season, no team has accomplished more than Duke. Thus, the Blue Devils hold the top spot on the s-curve and the No. 1 overall seed in our first bracket projection of 2013. For what it’s worth, Duke is No. 1 in the RPI, has played the nation’s third best schedule, is 10-0 vs. the RPI Top 50, and has wins over Louisville, Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Temple, and Ohio State. That’s about as good as it gets. The other No. 1 seeds are Louisville, Michigan, and Kansas.

As expected, the lower half of the current bracket is quite fluid. Even some national headliners have suspect resumes to this point: Kentucky, Pittsburgh, and North Carolina come to mind. Of those three, Kentucky seems most likely to push for a significantly higher seed come tournament time. We also have teams whose non-conference schedules could prove costly in March: Virginia (No. 329), Maryland (No. 323), Georgia Tech (No. 302), Charlotte (No. 300), Wyoming (No. 281), Iowa (No. 276), Pittsburgh (No. 255), and St. Mary’s (246) are just a few. How these teams – and others – handle conference play will define their seasons because their non-conference numbers won’t help much. (SOS numbers are from ESPN’s RPI rankings).

Quick note: The current bracket is for games played through Sunday, January 6. It does not include games played Monday (Jan. 7). Notre Dame’s win at Cincinnati will be included in the next bracket and s-curve update.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

Arizona State vs. Wisconsin | South Region
Virginia vs. Oklahoma | West Region
NORFOLK STATE vs. SOUTHERN | Midwest Region
CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN vs. WAGNER | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EAST – Washington, DC		MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Philadelphia		Lexington
1) DUKE		1) LOUISVILLE
16) CHARLESTON STHN / WAGNER		16) NORFOLK ST / SOUTHERN
Wyoming		Temple
9) MEMPHIS		9) UCLA

Dayton		Auburn Hills
5) Ohio State		5) NC State
12) BUCKNELL		12) MURRAY STATE
4) Cincinnati		4) Illinois
13) DETROIT		13) MID TENNESSEE ST

Austin		Austin
6) Georgetown		6) New Mexico
11) Colorado State		11) Indiana State
3) CREIGHTON		3) MISSOURI
14) CANISIUS		14) UTAH STATE

Dayton		Kansas City
7) Oklahoma State		7) VCU
10) Oregon		10) Marquette
2) Indiana		2) Minnesota
15) NORTHEASTERN		15) MERCER

WEST – Los Angeles		SOUTH – Dallas
Kansas City		Auburn Hills
1) KANSAS		1) MICHIGAN
16) WEBER STATE		16) STONY BROOK
Kentucky		Baylor
9) Miami-FL		9) Maryland

San Jose		San Jose
5) Notre Dame		5) BUTLER
12) Saint Louis		12) Arizona State / Wisconsin
4) Michigan State		4) SAN DIEGO STATE
13) NORTH DAKOTA ST		13) DAVIDSON

Salt Lake City		Lexington
6) UNLV		6) Kansas State
11) Virginia / Oklahoma		11) North Carolina
3) GONZAGA		3) Florida
14) S.F. AUSTIN		14) OHIO

Salt Lake City		Philadelphia
7) Wichita State		7) Colorado
10) Pittsburgh		10) Boise State
2) ARIZONA		2) Syracuse
15) HAWAII		15) HARVARD

NOTES on the BRACKET: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Louisville, Michigan, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Saint Louis, Virginia, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Oklahoma

First Five teams out (at large): Iowa, Iowa State, Dayton, California, Tennessee

Next Five teams out (at large): Belmont, Texas, BYU, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (7): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin

ACC (6): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Maryland, Miami-FL, Virginia

Mountain West (6): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Boise State, Colorado State

Atlantic 10 (4): Butler, VCU, Temple, Saint Louis

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State

SEC (3): Missouri, Florida, Kentucky

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … MURRAY STATE (Ohio Valley), BUCKNELL (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), NORTH DAKOTA ST (Summit), DETROIT (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), UTAH STATE (WAC), CANISIUS (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), OHIO (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), HAWAII (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), STONY BROOK (American East), WEBER STATE (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN (Big South), WAGNER (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)