Louisville making a push for the top overall seed in our latest bracket

Healthy and hungry, the Louisville Cardinals are pushing toward the top position on the s-curve.  Duke retains that position for another week.  The Blue Devils’ overall body of work remains impressive, and Ryan Kelly’s foot injury is a bigger concern than a close loss to NC State in Raleigh.  If Kelly doesn’t return healthy, the NCAA Selection Committee will have to evaluate the Blue Devils without him.  We don’t yet know how that resume might compare, or how quickly Kelly might return.

All four No. 1 seeds remain the same as last week: Duke (East), Louisville (Midwest), Michigan (South), and Kansas (West).  The bracket and s-curve are for games played through Sunday (Jan. 13).  Teams chasing the top line as two-seeds include Indiana, Arizona, Minnesota, and Syracuse.

This week’s bubble includes Kentucky.  One could easily make the case that UK’s resume isn’t tournament-worthy.  It’s hard to argue for a team that’s 1-5 vs. RPI Top 150 opponents, and whose best win is fellow bubble-dweller Maryland.  But since it’s mid-January and UK is very talented, although young, the Wildcats remain as one of the last team’s in the bracket.  They open as a First Four participant against Indiana State.  The Sycamores’ wins over Miami-FL and Ole Miss – two teams in the current field – are just enough to keep ISU on the right side of the ledger.  Joining UK and ISU as First Four participants – Texas AM and Arizona State.

We still have a long journey toward Selection Sunday.  The next two weeks will give us a clearer picture of the overall landscape.  With unbalanced schedules, it’s hard to evaluate conference records at this point.  Later, it’s important to compare schedules within the conference.  It’s not just the number of conference wins, but who those wins are against that matters.  Similar records aren’t necessarily the same anymore.

Enjoy another great week of hoops.

UPDATED: January 14, 2013 | Through games played Sunday, January 13

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc).

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

• Kentucky vs. Indiana State | East Region
• Texas AM vs. Arizona State | West Region
• NORFOLK STATE vs. WAGNER | East Region
• CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN vs. LONG BEACH | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

NOTES on the BRACKET: Duke is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Louisville, Michigan, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Colorado State, Arizona State, Texas AM, Kentucky, Indiana State

First Five teams out (at large): Iowa, Iowa State, Maryland, BYU, Arkansas

Next Five teams out (at large): Florida State, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph’s, Villanova, Rutgers

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (7): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin

Mountain West (6): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Boise State, Colorado State

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona State

SEC (5): Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, Texas AM, Mississippi

ACC (4): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL

Atlantic 10 (4): Butler, VCU, Temple, Saint Louis

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), BUCKNELL (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), NORTH DAKOTA ST (Summit), WRIGHT STATE (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), UTAH STATE (WAC), IONA (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), OHIO (MAC), FLORIDA GULF COAST (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), LONG BEACH (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), STONY BROOK (American East), WEBER STATE (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN (Big South), WAGNER (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)