Jan 22, 2013, 11:42 AM EDT
On Friday of last week, Luke Winn pumped out his annual Early Warnings column, which is a piece where he uses the efficiency profiles of the teams that have reached the Elite 8 and the Final Four to project who could be in trouble when it comes to makes an extended NCAA tournament run.
And according to those projections, the team with the most to worry about was Notre Dame. Here’s what Winn wrote about the Irish:
The biggest red-flaggers are the Irish, who have the worst DE ranking of any Mike Brey team in the tempo-free era (which is saying a lot). Their closest comp is the ’09-10 Notre Dame squad that went 21-10 in Luke Harangody’s final season, and was upset by 11th-seeded Old Dominion in their opening game of the NCAA tournament. That version of the Irish ranked sixth in OE and 132nd in DE.
At the time, Notre Dame had lost two of their last three games, with the one win being a three-point victory over Rutgers at home where the Irish got the benefit of a friendly whistle on a charge call in the finals seconds.
On Monday, the Irish lost to Georgetown 63-47 in what could arguably be considered their worst defensive performance of the season. It’s no secret that Georgetown has had all kinds of issues on the offensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 146th in the country in offensive efficiency, with Clemson, West Virginia and Texas Southern being the three teams sitting directly behind them. Four times this season, the Hoyas have failed to break the 50 point plateau.
But against Notre Dame on Monday night, Georgetown not only shot 53.3% from the field and 7-15 from three-point land, they managed to score 1.15 points-per-possession, a number they have reached only twice in a game this season, against Longwood and Western Carolina.
After the loss, the Irish fell to 3-3 in the Big East and 15-4 overall. They will likely fall out of the top 25, but the ranking they need to be more concerned about is 171st. That’s where they currently sit nationally in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom. And, as Winn has pointed out, teams that are that bad on the defensive end of the floor rarely make a run in the NCAA tournament.
If they end up making the tournament.
So where do the Irish need to improve?
They could start by forcing more turnovers, where they ranked 328th nationally. Given their tendency to pack things in defensively and their lack of physical specimens — as good as guys like Pat Connaughton, Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant are, they aren’t the kind of athletic marvel that a Victor Oladipo is — this doesn’t come as a surprise. But it does become a problem when you don’t have a team that rebounds all that well. Think about this stat: Jack Cooley is probably the nation’s bet rebounder, yet the Irish rank 150th and 91st, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
If you don’t force turnovers and you aren’t great at cleaning the defensive glass, then you don’t end possessions efficiently at all.
At this point, I think it best for Brey to go full-blown Burn Offense with this group. The roster makeup is perfect for it, and by stalling and taking the energy out of the game, he can get opposing offenses out of rhythm.
He’s proven to be effective with it, and it may be his team’s only option at this point.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Apr 24, 2015, 8:51 PM EDT
Kaleb Tarczewski decided to return to Arizona earlier in the day.
Apr 24, 2015, 8:15 PM EDT
The fifth banner is now hanging in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Apr 24, 2015, 6:56 PM EDT
DePaul lost a junior guard and a three-star forward (for the second time) on Friday evening.
Apr 24, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
He’ll be able to play immediately.
Apr 24, 2015, 4:21 PM EDT
The second team All-MAC guard will have two years of eligibility left.
Apr 24, 2015, 2:35 PM EDT
Walker’s career didn’t pan out the way anyone expected, but he’s headed to the pro game after two seasons.
Apr 24, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
Who’s going pro? Who’s returning to school? Who are we still waiting to hear from?
Apr 24, 2015, 1:52 PM EDT
A roster that will be both young and talented returns its leader as Dunn will be back for another season.
Apr 24, 2015, 1:14 PM EDT
It was reported earlier this week that Newman would be headed to Starkville, and he made it official Friday afternoon.
Apr 24, 2015, 12:55 PM EDT
The return of “Zeus” means that Arizona will have one returning starter from last year’s 34-4 team.
Apr 24, 2015, 12:16 PM EDT
The return of Buddy Hield pushes previously unranked Oklahoma into our way too early rankings.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:34 AM EDT
The reigning Big 12 Player of the Year has some unfinished business to attend to next season.
Apr 24, 2015, 11:15 AM EDT
Poythress played in eight games before suffering a torn ACL in practice.
Apr 24, 2015, 9:35 AM EDT
Sterling Smith averaged 13.9 points and 4.9 rebounds per game at Coppin State last season.
Apr 23, 2015, 9:22 PM EDT
Long averaged a double-double for the third consecutive season in 2014-15. He’ll hang around to make a run at a fourth.
Apr 23, 2015, 8:01 PM EDT
Johnson led the Wildcats in scoring last season while also averaging 6.5 rebounds per contest.
Apr 23, 2015, 6:50 PM EDT
Minnesota had a need for added depth on the wing, and the addition of Ahmad Gilbert helps in that regard.
Apr 23, 2015, 5:01 PM EDT
A second team All-Summit League selection last season, Billbury will be eligible immediately for VCU.
Apr 23, 2015, 4:05 PM EDT
Wallace led the Golden Bears in points, rebounds and assists last season.
Apr 23, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Murray is a top 50 recruit in the Class of 2015
- 2015 College Basketball Updated Early Entry List 14
- Providence announces return of point guard Kris Dunn for 2015-16 season 0
- Five-star guard Malik Newman commits to Mississippi State 0
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too-Early Preseason Rankings 0
- Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield returning for senior season 0
- Arizona forward Stanley Johnson enters 2015 NBA Draft 2
- California guard Tyrone Wallace to return for senior season 0
- Duke lands commitment from elite PG Derryck Thornton, who will reclass (17)
- 2015 College Basketball Updated Early Entry List (14)
- Five-star Kentucky commit believes the NCAA will clear him to play (10)
- Five members of Iowa State’s 2014-15 team have been arrested after two more arrests this week (9)
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too Early Preseason Top 25 (9)