Jan 22, 2013, 11:42 AM EDT
On Friday of last week, Luke Winn pumped out his annual Early Warnings column, which is a piece where he uses the efficiency profiles of the teams that have reached the Elite 8 and the Final Four to project who could be in trouble when it comes to makes an extended NCAA tournament run.
And according to those projections, the team with the most to worry about was Notre Dame. Here’s what Winn wrote about the Irish:
The biggest red-flaggers are the Irish, who have the worst DE ranking of any Mike Brey team in the tempo-free era (which is saying a lot). Their closest comp is the ’09-10 Notre Dame squad that went 21-10 in Luke Harangody’s final season, and was upset by 11th-seeded Old Dominion in their opening game of the NCAA tournament. That version of the Irish ranked sixth in OE and 132nd in DE.
At the time, Notre Dame had lost two of their last three games, with the one win being a three-point victory over Rutgers at home where the Irish got the benefit of a friendly whistle on a charge call in the finals seconds.
On Monday, the Irish lost to Georgetown 63-47 in what could arguably be considered their worst defensive performance of the season. It’s no secret that Georgetown has had all kinds of issues on the offensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 146th in the country in offensive efficiency, with Clemson, West Virginia and Texas Southern being the three teams sitting directly behind them. Four times this season, the Hoyas have failed to break the 50 point plateau.
But against Notre Dame on Monday night, Georgetown not only shot 53.3% from the field and 7-15 from three-point land, they managed to score 1.15 points-per-possession, a number they have reached only twice in a game this season, against Longwood and Western Carolina.
After the loss, the Irish fell to 3-3 in the Big East and 15-4 overall. They will likely fall out of the top 25, but the ranking they need to be more concerned about is 171st. That’s where they currently sit nationally in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom. And, as Winn has pointed out, teams that are that bad on the defensive end of the floor rarely make a run in the NCAA tournament.
If they end up making the tournament.
So where do the Irish need to improve?
They could start by forcing more turnovers, where they ranked 328th nationally. Given their tendency to pack things in defensively and their lack of physical specimens — as good as guys like Pat Connaughton, Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant are, they aren’t the kind of athletic marvel that a Victor Oladipo is — this doesn’t come as a surprise. But it does become a problem when you don’t have a team that rebounds all that well. Think about this stat: Jack Cooley is probably the nation’s bet rebounder, yet the Irish rank 150th and 91st, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
If you don’t force turnovers and you aren’t great at cleaning the defensive glass, then you don’t end possessions efficiently at all.
At this point, I think it best for Brey to go full-blown Burn Offense with this group. The roster makeup is perfect for it, and by stalling and taking the energy out of the game, he can get opposing offenses out of rhythm.
He’s proven to be effective with it, and it may be his team’s only option at this point.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 20, 2014, 4:45 PM EDT
Kennard is the No. 19 recruit in the Rivals top 150.
Aug 20, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Bryn Forbes averaged 15.6 points per game last season, shooting 43.4% from the field and 42.4% from three-point range.
Aug 20, 2014, 3:09 PM EDT
How can Nebraska build on their surprising, successful 2013-2014 season?
Aug 20, 2014, 2:01 PM EDT
Kentucky made the decision not to allow one of their stars to head to Spain for two weeks while they’re supposed to be in class.
Aug 20, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT
Think Jayhawk fans remember the name Ali Farokhmanesh?
Aug 20, 2014, 12:18 PM EDT
This took a while to plan.
Aug 20, 2014, 12:07 PM EDT
The Tigers have zero minutes of experience in their back court.
Aug 20, 2014, 11:19 AM EDT
Indiana now has six commitments in the Class of 2014.
Aug 20, 2014, 10:24 AM EDT
Kampe over came his fear of heights but still got hit with ice water.
Aug 19, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Memphis was 2-2 in Canada.
Aug 19, 2014, 9:55 PM EDT
Ray Kasongo was denied admission from Oregon on July 30, reopening his recruitment.
Aug 19, 2014, 8:10 PM EDT
This new court design is interesting to say the least.
Aug 19, 2014, 7:59 PM EDT
Take a look at what tournaments the Shockers will appear in over the next few years.
Aug 19, 2014, 6:07 PM EDT
Jimmy Whitt is ranked just outside the top 50 in the Class of 2015.
Aug 19, 2014, 4:40 PM EDT
Stephen Zimmerman averaged 17.5 points, 11.5 boards and 2.2 blocks per game in four games at the Nike Global Challenge.
Aug 19, 2014, 3:54 PM EDT
Nicholls State may have a large, orange-clad fan base these days.
Aug 19, 2014, 3:04 PM EDT
It’s how they played through their six games in the Bahamas.
Aug 19, 2014, 1:40 PM EDT
Shaka Smart brings in a perfect piece and that was a priority recruit.
Aug 19, 2014, 12:33 PM EDT
It looks like everyone had a great time.
Aug 19, 2014, 11:09 AM EDT
Jason Holmes is a pro athlete in a sport he never heard of.
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