Jan 22, 2013, 11:42 AM EST
On Friday of last week, Luke Winn pumped out his annual Early Warnings column, which is a piece where he uses the efficiency profiles of the teams that have reached the Elite 8 and the Final Four to project who could be in trouble when it comes to makes an extended NCAA tournament run.
And according to those projections, the team with the most to worry about was Notre Dame. Here’s what Winn wrote about the Irish:
The biggest red-flaggers are the Irish, who have the worst DE ranking of any Mike Brey team in the tempo-free era (which is saying a lot). Their closest comp is the ’09-10 Notre Dame squad that went 21-10 in Luke Harangody’s final season, and was upset by 11th-seeded Old Dominion in their opening game of the NCAA tournament. That version of the Irish ranked sixth in OE and 132nd in DE.
At the time, Notre Dame had lost two of their last three games, with the one win being a three-point victory over Rutgers at home where the Irish got the benefit of a friendly whistle on a charge call in the finals seconds.
On Monday, the Irish lost to Georgetown 63-47 in what could arguably be considered their worst defensive performance of the season. It’s no secret that Georgetown has had all kinds of issues on the offensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 146th in the country in offensive efficiency, with Clemson, West Virginia and Texas Southern being the three teams sitting directly behind them. Four times this season, the Hoyas have failed to break the 50 point plateau.
But against Notre Dame on Monday night, Georgetown not only shot 53.3% from the field and 7-15 from three-point land, they managed to score 1.15 points-per-possession, a number they have reached only twice in a game this season, against Longwood and Western Carolina.
After the loss, the Irish fell to 3-3 in the Big East and 15-4 overall. They will likely fall out of the top 25, but the ranking they need to be more concerned about is 171st. That’s where they currently sit nationally in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom. And, as Winn has pointed out, teams that are that bad on the defensive end of the floor rarely make a run in the NCAA tournament.
If they end up making the tournament.
So where do the Irish need to improve?
They could start by forcing more turnovers, where they ranked 328th nationally. Given their tendency to pack things in defensively and their lack of physical specimens — as good as guys like Pat Connaughton, Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant are, they aren’t the kind of athletic marvel that a Victor Oladipo is — this doesn’t come as a surprise. But it does become a problem when you don’t have a team that rebounds all that well. Think about this stat: Jack Cooley is probably the nation’s bet rebounder, yet the Irish rank 150th and 91st, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage.
If you don’t force turnovers and you aren’t great at cleaning the defensive glass, then you don’t end possessions efficiently at all.
At this point, I think it best for Brey to go full-blown Burn Offense with this group. The roster makeup is perfect for it, and by stalling and taking the energy out of the game, he can get opposing offenses out of rhythm.
He’s proven to be effective with it, and it may be his team’s only option at this point.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jan 28, 2015, 3:00 PM EST
Johnson was considering some other high major programs.
Jan 28, 2015, 1:27 PM EST
Can you guess who those two are?
Jan 28, 2015, 12:39 PM EST
Travis is a key piece for the Cardinal front court.
Jan 28, 2015, 11:17 AM EST
A thrilling top ten battle highlights the night.
Jan 28, 2015, 10:25 AM EST
You know what Michigan doesn’t need? More injuries.
Jan 28, 2015, 9:16 AM EST
We have heard Renardo Sidney say he is a changed man before. He explains why a two-year hiatus from basketball has changed him.
Late Night Snacks: Florida, Xavier, West Virginia earn good road wins; VCU rolls past George Washington
Jan 27, 2015, 11:35 PM EST
Xavier and West Virginia earned nice conference road wins while VCU rolled over George Washington.
Jan 27, 2015, 11:16 PM EST
Florida needed this win badly. Dorian Finney-Smith dunked them there.
Jan 27, 2015, 10:55 PM EST
Wyoming’s Riley Grabau banked in a buzzer-beater from long distance to end the first half against Utah State.
Jan 27, 2015, 10:15 PM EST
Virginia Tech’s Adam Smith is Tuesday night’s hero.
Jan 27, 2015, 7:15 PM EST
South Florida is still without its most productive player after after he went into the hospital with chest pains this weekend.
Jan 27, 2015, 6:00 PM EST
Colorado gets another guard in the 2016 class.
Akron to play second-annual ‘Purple Out’ in purple uniforms to help raise pancreatic cancer awareness
Jan 27, 2015, 5:00 PM EST
Akron is having its second-annual “Purple Out” against Ball State to help raise pancreatic cancer awareness.
Jan 27, 2015, 4:00 PM EST
You sometimes forget just how good some of the Duke guards were throughout the years. Here’s a reminder.
Jan 27, 2015, 3:33 PM EST
Hugh Greenwood made headlines last week for responding to an online troll.
Jan 27, 2015, 2:16 PM EST
Coach K is the best.
Jan 27, 2015, 1:40 PM EST
It should be an entertaining night for college hoops.
Jan 27, 2015, 12:00 PM EST
Can you guess who the most important player in program history was?
Jan 27, 2015, 10:59 AM EST
Justice started seven games this season.
Jan 27, 2015, 9:16 AM EST
DePaul may have to reschedule their trip to Providence.
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