Jan 23, 2013, 9:20 AM EDT
In 2011-2012, Kentucky didn’t lose an SEC game until March 11th. It was Selection Sunday and the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC title game. It was Kentucky’s second loss of the season, the first of which came on Christian Watford’s memorable buzzer-beater back in December.
On Tuesday night, the 2012-2013 version of the Wildcats went into Tuscaloosa and lost their second SEC game of the season, 59-55 to the Crimson Tide. On January 22nd. In an SEC that is no where near as strong as it was a season ago. To an Alabama team that couldn’t figure out a way to beat Mercer or Tulane just nine days after the Wildcats lost at home to a Texas A&M team that lost to Southern.
I’ve defended the Wildcats all season long. I’ve said that there’s no way a team with this much talent, with four future lottery picks, can miss the tournament in a season like this with a bubble that’s projecting to be the weakest it’s ever been. All along, I’ve said there is nothing that head coach John Calipari does better than get a group of misfits to somehow figure out to work together for seven months, how to put there differences aside and buy into a role and become a team.
I’m not so sure that’s the case anymore.
And it puts Kentucky in danger of actually missing out on the NCAA tournament.
The biggest issue is that the Wildcats haven’t answered any of the question marks they had two months ago. Alex Poythress is still an enigma. He’s got the talent and the ability to absolutely dominate, to be an all-american and the perfect compliment to Kyle Wiltjer and Nerlens Noel along the front line. He just doesn’t seem to know how to take over a game or put together 40 minutes of maximum effort. Case in point: Poythress is shooting 62.1% from the floor this season, but he hasn’t taken more than nine shots in a game since Kentucky lost to Baylor on December 1st. He’s taken more than five shots in just one of Kentucky five SEC games.
Archie Goodwin is by far Kentucky’s highest-usage player, but he’s also by far their most inefficient, according to Kenpom. And even those numbers become inflated once you factor out Kentucky’s seven opponents that couldn’t crack Kenpom’s top 200. Take away those games, and he’s shooting 35.6% from the floor and 24.0% from three while his assist-to-turnover ratio drops from 1.05:1 to 0.77:1.
Willie Cauley-Stein is injured. Nerlens Noel simply isn’t a threat on the defensive end of the floor, and his ability to block shots has gotten Kentucky into lazy habits on the defensive end. Kyle Wiltjer has turned into their go-to scorer down the stretch despite the fact that asking Wiltjer to be much more than a spot-up shooter is a risk at this point in his development.
Add all of that up, and what it means is that Kentucky is now just 1-6 against the RPI top 100. That one win? Maryland, who is 64th in the RPI.
The Wildcats will get a couple of chances to land big wins during SEC play. They go home-and-home with Florida still (6th), visit Ole Miss (32nd) and host Missouri (27th). They also have the rematch with Texas A&M (57th) in College Station. And then there is the SEC tournament to think about.
So Kentucky’s not dead in the water yet.
But they currently have the profile of an NIT team, and if they don’t land a win over Florida — who looks like the best team in the country over the last two weeks — the Wildcats will probably have to win the rest of their SEC games, simply because they cannot afford a loss to a team like Tennessee (102nd), Vanderbilt (127th) or Georgia (181st) to avoid having the profile of an NIT team come Selection Sunday.
The bigger issue is what we have seen on the court.
Kentucky has looked like an NIT team. And they haven’t done anything to persuade those watching that a change is coming in the near future.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Apr 20, 2014, 12:51 PM EDT
The Harrison twins are halfway through deciding on returning to Lexington or declaring for the NBA draft.
Apr 20, 2014, 12:02 PM EDT
Garrett becomes the fourth member of the Crimson Tide’s incoming class.
Apr 20, 2014, 11:17 AM EDT
The Cougars landed a former top 100 recruit on Sunday morning.
Apr 20, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
Just over a week after his appeal to be released from his scholarship at Marshall was granted, Kareem Canty’s decided to transfer to Auburn.
Apr 20, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
Watch the incoming class showcase their talents in Brooklyn on Friday night.
Apr 20, 2014, 12:58 AM EDT
According to a report, Louisiana Tech’s Michael White is the focus of Tennessee’s search for a new head coach.
Apr 19, 2014, 9:17 PM EDT
A Kentucky fan promised to get a tattoo of Willie Cauley-Stein if the 7-footer returned to Lexington for his junior season. Saturday, Michael Gray followed through.
Apr 19, 2014, 7:36 PM EDT
UNLV has added another player to its 2014 recruiting class, as shooting guard Patrick McCaw verbally committed to the Mountain West program.
Apr 19, 2014, 6:24 PM EDT
Arizona State has made another addition to its roster, landing a commitment from former UNLV forward Savon Goodman.
Apr 19, 2014, 5:45 PM EDT
Forward Zach LeDay has decided to leave the USF program after spending two seasons in Tampa.
Apr 19, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
New Florida A&M AD Kellen Winslow Sr. has already decided that the basketball program needs a new leader, as head coach Clemon Johnson was relieved of his duties Friday.
Apr 19, 2014, 4:25 PM EDT
Will highly-touted Colombian center Tonny Trocha-Morelos finally be joining the Texas A&M program?
Apr 19, 2014, 2:39 PM EDT
Michigan had some open scholarships following the 2014 NBA Draft departures of Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III and they filled one of those on Saturday with a commitment from senior guard Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman.
Apr 19, 2014, 1:25 PM EDT
Gonzaga will have a very tough non-conference slate during the 2014-15 season.
Apr 19, 2014, 12:10 PM EDT
Two-and-through sounds more and more likely to happen.
Apr 19, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
Former Marquette commits Ahmed Hill and Satchel Pierce are following former Golden Eagles coach Buzz Williams to Virginia Tech as the duo committed to the Hokies on Saturday morning.
POSTERIZED: SMU commit Emmanuel Mudiay flushes a ridiculous alley-oop during Jordan Brand Classic (VIDEO)
Apr 19, 2014, 10:03 AM EDT
SMU commit Emmanuel Mudiay put down the best dunk at the Jordan Brand Classic.
Apr 18, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Northern Illinois extended the contract of head coach Mark Montgomery through the 2017-18 season.
Chicago duo Jahlil Okafor, Cliff Alexander earn MVP honors as East beats West in Jordan Brand Classic
Apr 18, 2014, 9:39 PM EDT
Chicago natives Jahlil Okafor and Cliff Alexander earned MVP honors as the East beat the West in the Jordan Brand Classic.
Apr 18, 2014, 8:40 PM EDT
Houston is allowing Danuel House and TaShawn Thomas to transfer, but only to certain programs.
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- Kentucky’s James Young to enter the NBA Draft 0
- Jabari Parker is headed to the NBA 7
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- Former Alabama player Devonta Pollard receiving interest from Kentucky 2
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