Jan 23, 2013, 9:20 AM EST
In 2011-2012, Kentucky didn’t lose an SEC game until March 11th. It was Selection Sunday and the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC title game. It was Kentucky’s second loss of the season, the first of which came on Christian Watford’s memorable buzzer-beater back in December.
On Tuesday night, the 2012-2013 version of the Wildcats went into Tuscaloosa and lost their second SEC game of the season, 59-55 to the Crimson Tide. On January 22nd. In an SEC that is no where near as strong as it was a season ago. To an Alabama team that couldn’t figure out a way to beat Mercer or Tulane just nine days after the Wildcats lost at home to a Texas A&M team that lost to Southern.
I’ve defended the Wildcats all season long. I’ve said that there’s no way a team with this much talent, with four future lottery picks, can miss the tournament in a season like this with a bubble that’s projecting to be the weakest it’s ever been. All along, I’ve said there is nothing that head coach John Calipari does better than get a group of misfits to somehow figure out to work together for seven months, how to put there differences aside and buy into a role and become a team.
I’m not so sure that’s the case anymore.
And it puts Kentucky in danger of actually missing out on the NCAA tournament.
The biggest issue is that the Wildcats haven’t answered any of the question marks they had two months ago. Alex Poythress is still an enigma. He’s got the talent and the ability to absolutely dominate, to be an all-american and the perfect compliment to Kyle Wiltjer and Nerlens Noel along the front line. He just doesn’t seem to know how to take over a game or put together 40 minutes of maximum effort. Case in point: Poythress is shooting 62.1% from the floor this season, but he hasn’t taken more than nine shots in a game since Kentucky lost to Baylor on December 1st. He’s taken more than five shots in just one of Kentucky five SEC games.
Archie Goodwin is by far Kentucky’s highest-usage player, but he’s also by far their most inefficient, according to Kenpom. And even those numbers become inflated once you factor out Kentucky’s seven opponents that couldn’t crack Kenpom’s top 200. Take away those games, and he’s shooting 35.6% from the floor and 24.0% from three while his assist-to-turnover ratio drops from 1.05:1 to 0.77:1.
Willie Cauley-Stein is injured. Nerlens Noel simply isn’t a threat on the defensive end of the floor, and his ability to block shots has gotten Kentucky into lazy habits on the defensive end. Kyle Wiltjer has turned into their go-to scorer down the stretch despite the fact that asking Wiltjer to be much more than a spot-up shooter is a risk at this point in his development.
Add all of that up, and what it means is that Kentucky is now just 1-6 against the RPI top 100. That one win? Maryland, who is 64th in the RPI.
The Wildcats will get a couple of chances to land big wins during SEC play. They go home-and-home with Florida still (6th), visit Ole Miss (32nd) and host Missouri (27th). They also have the rematch with Texas A&M (57th) in College Station. And then there is the SEC tournament to think about.
So Kentucky’s not dead in the water yet.
But they currently have the profile of an NIT team, and if they don’t land a win over Florida — who looks like the best team in the country over the last two weeks — the Wildcats will probably have to win the rest of their SEC games, simply because they cannot afford a loss to a team like Tennessee (102nd), Vanderbilt (127th) or Georgia (181st) to avoid having the profile of an NIT team come Selection Sunday.
The bigger issue is what we have seen on the court.
Kentucky has looked like an NIT team. And they haven’t done anything to persuade those watching that a change is coming in the near future.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Nov 25, 2014, 2:58 PM EST
I hope his joke doesn’t make people ignore the fact the he really felt bad about this.
Nov 25, 2014, 2:43 PM EST
We get some good gauge games on Tuesday night.
Nov 25, 2014, 1:18 PM EST
Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor are near the top, but the rest of the top five may surprise you.
Nov 25, 2014, 12:27 PM EST
Benjamin hurt his ankle against Michigan.
Nov 25, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
Jason McManamen is trying to prove Billy Hoyle and Sidney Dean wrong.
Nov 25, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
Michigan was dominated on the glass, but the freshman forward stepped up to ice the victory.
Nov 25, 2014, 7:00 AM EST
Can a team that runs a pressing system truly be one of the nations elite?
Late Night Snacks: San Diego State and BYU engage in double OT thriller; Nova, Zona earn big wins; Indiana upset at home
Nov 25, 2014, 2:00 AM EST
A busy night of tournament and non-conference action in college hoops made for some big wins for Villanova and Arizona and a home loss for Indiana.
Nov 24, 2014, 11:51 PM EST
We knew Iowa State had a lot of offensive weapons, but with the return of some key rotation players the Cyclones look really tough.
No. 6 Louisville jumps out to 29-0 lead, holds Savannah State scoreless for nearly 16 minutes in easy win
Nov 24, 2014, 9:35 PM EST
Louisville’s defense took it up a notch against Savannah State.
Nov 24, 2014, 8:30 PM EST
Tennessee is losing an assistant coach as a NCAA investigation into head coach Donnie Tyndall’s time at Southern Mississippi continues.
Nov 24, 2014, 7:27 PM EST
No. 3 Arizona held off Missouri the whole game and cruised to a double-digit win in Maui.
Nov 24, 2014, 6:30 PM EST
After spending some time in the hospital battling pneumonia, legendary coach Jerry Tarkanian is leaving the hospital.
Nov 24, 2014, 5:15 PM EST
Florida Gulf Coast suspended a key player for three games on Monday.
Nov 24, 2014, 4:25 PM EST
Baylor lost a commitment from a 2015 guard.
Nov 24, 2014, 2:24 PM EST
Jerian Grant was dominant in the final 12 minutes against Providence.
Nov 24, 2014, 1:36 PM EST
Once again, the Maui has put together a loaded field.
Nov 24, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
There will be some fun basketball games on Monday night.
Nov 24, 2014, 12:19 PM EST
Atson was called by one scout the “Chris Herren of New Haven”.
Nov 24, 2014, 11:41 AM EST
Henton went for 38 against Notre Dame, while West Virginia won the Puerto Rico Tip-Off.
- Player of the Year Power Rankings: A familiar face on top, but a few surprises behind him 0
- Ricky Doyle secures 70-63 win for No. 19 Michigan over Oregon in Legends Classic 0
- Villanova’s win is evidence of why VCU may have peaked as a basketball program 11
- Mike Brey was excited about Notre Dame’s loss because the Irish have their closer back 1
- Weekly Awards: LaDontae Henton, West Virginia with notable performances 0
- College Basketball Talk’s latest top 25: Kentucky reigns, but how far will Kansas, Florida slide? 5
- Providence star LaDontae ‘Buckets’ Henton may be the nation’s most under-appreciated star 1
- Poll: 54 percent of people think Kentucky beats the 76ers, 54 percent of people are dumb (31)
- Villanova’s win is evidence of why VCU may have peaked as a basketball program (12)
- No. 1 Kentucky’s size, depth overwhelms No. 5 Kansas, makes 40-0 seem possible? (5)
- College Basketball Talk’s latest top 25: Kentucky reigns, but how far will Kansas, Florida slide? (5)
- Colorado’s second half run a product of its focus on getting the ball inside (3)