Jan 23, 2013, 9:20 AM EDT
In 2011-2012, Kentucky didn’t lose an SEC game until March 11th. It was Selection Sunday and the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC title game. It was Kentucky’s second loss of the season, the first of which came on Christian Watford’s memorable buzzer-beater back in December.
On Tuesday night, the 2012-2013 version of the Wildcats went into Tuscaloosa and lost their second SEC game of the season, 59-55 to the Crimson Tide. On January 22nd. In an SEC that is no where near as strong as it was a season ago. To an Alabama team that couldn’t figure out a way to beat Mercer or Tulane just nine days after the Wildcats lost at home to a Texas A&M team that lost to Southern.
I’ve defended the Wildcats all season long. I’ve said that there’s no way a team with this much talent, with four future lottery picks, can miss the tournament in a season like this with a bubble that’s projecting to be the weakest it’s ever been. All along, I’ve said there is nothing that head coach John Calipari does better than get a group of misfits to somehow figure out to work together for seven months, how to put there differences aside and buy into a role and become a team.
I’m not so sure that’s the case anymore.
And it puts Kentucky in danger of actually missing out on the NCAA tournament.
The biggest issue is that the Wildcats haven’t answered any of the question marks they had two months ago. Alex Poythress is still an enigma. He’s got the talent and the ability to absolutely dominate, to be an all-american and the perfect compliment to Kyle Wiltjer and Nerlens Noel along the front line. He just doesn’t seem to know how to take over a game or put together 40 minutes of maximum effort. Case in point: Poythress is shooting 62.1% from the floor this season, but he hasn’t taken more than nine shots in a game since Kentucky lost to Baylor on December 1st. He’s taken more than five shots in just one of Kentucky five SEC games.
Archie Goodwin is by far Kentucky’s highest-usage player, but he’s also by far their most inefficient, according to Kenpom. And even those numbers become inflated once you factor out Kentucky’s seven opponents that couldn’t crack Kenpom’s top 200. Take away those games, and he’s shooting 35.6% from the floor and 24.0% from three while his assist-to-turnover ratio drops from 1.05:1 to 0.77:1.
Willie Cauley-Stein is injured. Nerlens Noel simply isn’t a threat on the defensive end of the floor, and his ability to block shots has gotten Kentucky into lazy habits on the defensive end. Kyle Wiltjer has turned into their go-to scorer down the stretch despite the fact that asking Wiltjer to be much more than a spot-up shooter is a risk at this point in his development.
Add all of that up, and what it means is that Kentucky is now just 1-6 against the RPI top 100. That one win? Maryland, who is 64th in the RPI.
The Wildcats will get a couple of chances to land big wins during SEC play. They go home-and-home with Florida still (6th), visit Ole Miss (32nd) and host Missouri (27th). They also have the rematch with Texas A&M (57th) in College Station. And then there is the SEC tournament to think about.
So Kentucky’s not dead in the water yet.
But they currently have the profile of an NIT team, and if they don’t land a win over Florida — who looks like the best team in the country over the last two weeks — the Wildcats will probably have to win the rest of their SEC games, simply because they cannot afford a loss to a team like Tennessee (102nd), Vanderbilt (127th) or Georgia (181st) to avoid having the profile of an NIT team come Selection Sunday.
The bigger issue is what we have seen on the court.
Kentucky has looked like an NIT team. And they haven’t done anything to persuade those watching that a change is coming in the near future.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 4, 2015, 6:39 PM EDT
Seventh Woods removed one more team from consideration.
Sep 4, 2015, 5:19 PM EDT
Rico Gathers averaged a double-double last season.
Sep 4, 2015, 4:03 PM EDT
Washington sat out all of last season due to a lingering foot injury.
Sep 4, 2015, 3:21 PM EDT
Mike Krzyzewski will be taking a national title team to the Oval Office for the fifth time in his career.
Sep 4, 2015, 2:13 PM EDT
It was reported in late July that Felton was listening to other schools.
Sep 4, 2015, 12:39 PM EDT
Devin Davis has since enrolled at Odessa JC in Texas.
Sep 4, 2015, 9:40 AM EDT
Greenwood is the second former college basketball player to sign with an AFL franchise in the last week.
Sep 3, 2015, 9:05 PM EDT
The Bulldogs are guaranteed games against five NCAA tournament teams and could play more based upon what happens in the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Sep 3, 2015, 7:56 PM EDT
Virginia is trying to figure out the academic situation of Mamadi Diakite, who might enroll in 2015.
Sep 3, 2015, 6:51 PM EDT
This comes less than a month after AD Norwood Teague stepped down for his own alleged sexual misconduct.
Sep 3, 2015, 5:22 PM EDT
Joe Struggs, who didn’t enroll until last month, has been dealing with issues with both of his shins.
Sep 3, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
This year’s Terrapins will look to match what Dixon, Steve Blake and company accomplished just over 13 years ago.
Sep 3, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Jalen Johnson is one of the best in-game dunkers in the Class of 2016.
Sep 3, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
The Atlantic 10 released its full conference schedule. The league has 33 games on NBCSN this season.
Sep 3, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Michigan State saw the newly-renovated practice facility when they arrived back from a trip to Italy.
Sep 3, 2015, 9:15 AM EDT
Josh Jackson won back-to-back MVP awards at the Under Armour Elite 24.
Sep 2, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
With two seniors in their current front court, adding a big man helps North Carolina moving forward.
Sep 2, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Mullin threw out the first pitch at a Yankees game back in late-May.
Sep 2, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
The men’s basketball freshmen will meet in New York City September 12 & 13.
Sep 2, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
The ACC is loaded this year, which will make for a fun conference schedule.
- Jalen Rose planning a book about the Fab Five 2
- Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan makes another statement wavering on potential retirement 0
- Cody Zeller, Indiana president speak out against recent athlete legal issues 0
- Five-star 2016 combo guard cuts list to four 0
- Xavier, Mount St. Joseph to launch the ‘Lauren Hill Tip-Off Classic’ 1
- Tai Wynyard: ‘I will be coming to UK in December’ 0
- Tom Izzo, 30 second shot clocks, and why zone presses will be more popular this year 1
- Jalen Rose planning a book about the Fab Five (2)
- ACC releases its full conference schedule (2)
- Throwback Thursday: Juan Dixon and company win Maryland’s lone national title (2)
- Indiana head coach Tom Crean laments team’s lack of leadership (1)
- Former Butler forward Andrew Smith fighting cancer for second time (1)