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Weekend Preview: Oregon, San Diego State lead upset watch

Feb 1, 2013, 10:00 AM EST

Allen Crabbe, Justin Cobbs, Geoffrey Frid, Matt Scherbenske

Who’s Getting Upset? No. 10 Oregon at Cal (4:30 p.m. ET, FSN/ROOT)

I don’t even know if this is fair to count as an upset. Oregon is on the road and playing without their starting point guard in Dominic Artis. Artis injured his foot two games ago, and the Ducks simply haven’t been the same since. The struggled to knock off a Washington team that was coming off of back-to-back losses to Oregon State and Utah, and followed that up by getting shellacked by Stanford on Wednesday night.

At full strength, Oregon is a dangerous team. They have a lot of size and even more versatility, which allows them to mix-up their lineup and create matchup problems for opponents. But at No. 10 in the country, they are overrated. And now that they’re missing their point guard, they are susceptible to the upset.

The Bears need to do two things to win this game: Justin Cobbs and Allen Crabbe have to have big nights shooting the ball. Cal struggles to score without those two. And they need to be able to handle Oregon’s big front line. If they can do that, they’ll have a very good shot at pulling the upset.

Who else is on Upset Alert?

  • No. 22 San Diego State at Air Force (3:00 p.m. ET): The Aztecs are coming off of a 55-34 win at home against New Mexico last Saturday, but this Saturday they’ll be heading to Air Force to take on a surprising Falcons team that has a star in Michael Lyons, runs a difficult system to matchup with and is better than anyone expected them to be this season. SDSU better show up ready to play.
  • UNLV at Boise State (9:00 p.m. ET): UNLV is a team that’s still trying to figure out if they’re better off playing big — with Mike Moser at the three — or playing small — without Mike Moser coming off the bench. There’s not question that team has talent, but how that talent all fits together is something that Dave Rice is stil fine-tuning. Boise State, on the other hand, knows themselves. They have a bunch of guards that like to get perimeter jumpers up. They desperately need a win over the Rebels to turn around a rough stretch in their season. Will those jumpers be dropping Saturday?
  • No. 18 Kansas State at Oklahoma (6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2): I really like this Oklahoma team. They have size and athleticism, they have big men that are tough to matchup with because of their perimeter ability, they have a go-to scorer in Steven Pledger and they have a lockdown defender in Buddy Hield. I think the Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.
  • No. 15 Wichita State at Northern Iowa (4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2): So much for Northern Iowa being one of the contenders in the Missouri Valley. But just because they aren’t going to win the league doesn’t mean they can’t pull off an upset or two along the way. The Panthers have the size to deal with WSU’s two JuCo big men and a pair of playmaking guards in the back court.
  • No. 5 Duke at Florida State (Sat. 2:00 p.m. ET, ESPN): Here’s your chance, Florida State. You need to make a statement. You need to get that marquee win this season. You know you do, and on Saturday, you’re hosting a Duke team that’s missing Ryan Kelly and can’t defend like they used to earlier in the season. Maybe you should just play every possession like it’s a buzzer-beater and force-feed Michael Snaer.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

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