Feb 4, 2013, 10:00 PM EDT
A hearty welcome to those of you just now joining the rest of us in following college basketball now that football season has ended. We’ll be running a series of posts to get all you football fans caught up on the season at-large. To read through them all, click here.
It’s never to early to start thinking about the NCAA tournament bracket and your office pool. In fact, I’d say that’s the reason that 75% of the people that watch college basketball on any given night are doing it. Scouting.
I get it.
It’s been four years since I haven’t finished in the money in a tournament pool. So book mark this page, and consider it my gift to you: a guide of who to focus on while you “scout”.
Five lower seeds that can make a tournament run:
Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky’s on pace to end up getting somewhere around an eight or a nine seed. If I’m John Calipari, I’m hoping for a seven or a ten seed. Or lower. I don’t know if the Wildcats have the horses to knock off one of the top four teams in the country, but I think they certainly will be good enough to make the Sweet 16, regardless of seeding. They are starting to show some signs of growth, and with (at least) four lottery picks on the roster, I’m not ready to write this group off yet.
VCU Rams: The Rams play such a unique and tough-to-prepare-for style, they can spring an upset on a team with a back court that’s uncomfortable going against their pressure. The key for VCU is and always will be turnovers in the full court; given their lack of size, half court defense is not a strength for Shaka Smart’s club.
Pitt Panthers: The Panthers are almost certainly going to be underseeded as a result of their embarrassing non-conference schedule. And trust me when I tell you this is a good basketball team. They can defend, they are excellent at getting to the offensive glass, they pass the ball well and they have an underrated back court. You don’t want to see the Panthers in the second round of the tournament.
St. Louis Billikens: Tough, physical, half court defense. That’s how St. Louis wins game. And that’s out a team with less athleticism and less talent can win a basketball game. And, like Pitt, thanks to a couple of questionable losses this year, the Billikens are probably going to be seeded lower than they should be.
Long Beach State 49ers: LBSU isn’t going to be getting a seeding much better than 14 or 15, but this is a group with high-major talent and athleticism. James Ennis is legit, and he’s got a slew of talent — Michael Caffey, former top 25 recruit Keala King, DePaul transfer Tony Freeland, West Virginia transfer Dan Jennings — around him.
Five higher seeds that may bow out early:
NC State Wolfpack: NC State doesn’t defend at all, their star point guard has a bum ankle and has been up-and-down all season long, and their most talented player struggles when trying to take a game over and has been ineffective down the stretch. There’s so much to like about NC State this season, which is why it’s frustrating to see them struggle.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: I just don’t trust Minnesota offensively. So much of what they do relies on their ability to get to the offensive glass. Good teams are going to be able to keep them from getting there; it’s going to depend on the matchup. I don’t trust Minnesota to be consistent. They lost four in a row at the end of last month, and needed an impressive choke-job from Iowa to avoid losing to the Hawkeyes.
Creighton Bluejays: The Bluejays are a much-improved defensive team this season, yet they still rank 81st in the country in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom. Throw in the fact that this is a team that survives because of their ability to shoot the basketball, and they are a risky play. On the nights those threes go down, they’re going to be tough to beat. On the nights they don’t, the Bluejays can be beaten.
Oregon Ducks: How healthy is Dominic Artis? That’s the biggest concern for Oregon right now, because without him, the Ducks simply cannot protect the ball. Already in the bottom third of the country when it comes to turnover percentage, Oregon has seen that number dip to 29.8% — literally the worst in the country — in the last three games without him.
Butler Bulldogs: I realize that it’s sacrilegious to say that Butler might get knocked out of the tournament early. I’m not happy about doing it. But here’s my thought process: Butler is good, but they don’t play the kind of defense that we expect out of Butler teams. They can struggle against teams that defend them physically (ahem, St. Louis) and I don’t love Butler’s point guard situation. But thanks to wins over Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette and North Carolina, Butler looks like they could be in line for a three or a four seed, depending on how the A-10 plays out.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 31, 2014, 10:13 PM EDT
Mary Willingham’s lawsuit came to light in early July, with the NCAA deciding to reopen its investigation at around the same time.
Jul 31, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
The explosive shooting guard’s new school is located in Napa, California.
Jul 31, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
The court will be redesigned by the end of the month.
Jul 31, 2014, 6:10 PM EDT
There are three: white, black and grey.
Jul 31, 2014, 5:20 PM EDT
Blackwell is a member of the Class of 2016 but is already hearing from some notable programs.
Jul 31, 2014, 4:16 PM EDT
Where have all the NYC Point Gods gone?
Jul 31, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
Brunson is the father of a top 15 recruit and a potential hire for a program in the AAC.
Jul 31, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT
Wichita State is coming off of a Final Four and an undefeated regular season. What happens if they can’t match that success again?
Jul 31, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
It’s the second time Hill has donated a million to the school
Jul 31, 2014, 10:50 AM EDT
Mitchell played as well as anyone in the country this July
Jul 31, 2014, 10:02 AM EDT
It’s not that strong, but it could have been much worse.
Jul 30, 2014, 10:32 PM EDT
Walker has spent the last 13 seasons at his alma mater.
Jul 30, 2014, 9:32 PM EDT
The highly athletic wing is back on the market, but he’s yet to be cleared academically.
Jul 30, 2014, 8:17 PM EDT
The Bulldogs succeeded in keeping a talented in-state product home.
Jul 30, 2014, 7:12 PM EDT
Mayo’s decision means that Marquette has to replace its top four scorers from last season.
Jul 30, 2014, 6:51 PM EDT
Just over a month after landing a junior college guard, the Rebels have their second commit in the Class of 2015.
Jul 30, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
UCLA is holding out hope that John Wooden Court can be salvaged, but if not they’ll have time to replace it.
Jul 30, 2014, 3:12 PM EDT
Larrier is the best recruit that Shaka Smart has landed at VCU.
Jul 30, 2014, 12:51 PM EDT
After averaging 16.0 points per game as a freshman, the South Plains College guard is looking to become a better lead guard as a sophomore.
Jul 30, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
It’s Dayton’s third commitment from the Class of 2015
- How can Wichita State build on the two best years in program history? 0
- Junior college prospect Andre Spight working to improve point guard skills 0
- Duncan Robinson, of D-III Williams College, considering transfer to Michigan, Davidson 0
- UCLA’s Pauley Pavilion flooded after water main break on Sunset Boulevard (PHOTOS/VIDEOS) 0
- John Calipari’s return to Kentucky ‘solely’ due to loyalty to his players 2
- The other side of the July live period: Recruits continue to strive for attention and offers 0
- Seven takeaways from AAU Nationals and Super Showcase 0
- Marcus Foster still hasn’t forgotten, or forgiven, those pulled scholarships (3)
- Two surprises after first cuts at Team USA U17 trials (3)
- Xavier’s new court design? Cincy’s skyline, but not chili (PHOTO) (3)
- John Calipari’s return to Kentucky ‘solely’ due to loyalty to his players (2)
- Report: Top Oregon recruit denied admission to school (2)