Feb 4, 2013, 10:00 PM EDT
A hearty welcome to those of you just now joining the rest of us in following college basketball now that football season has ended. We’ll be running a series of posts to get all you football fans caught up on the season at-large. To read through them all, click here.
It’s never to early to start thinking about the NCAA tournament bracket and your office pool. In fact, I’d say that’s the reason that 75% of the people that watch college basketball on any given night are doing it. Scouting.
I get it.
It’s been four years since I haven’t finished in the money in a tournament pool. So book mark this page, and consider it my gift to you: a guide of who to focus on while you “scout”.
Five lower seeds that can make a tournament run:
Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky’s on pace to end up getting somewhere around an eight or a nine seed. If I’m John Calipari, I’m hoping for a seven or a ten seed. Or lower. I don’t know if the Wildcats have the horses to knock off one of the top four teams in the country, but I think they certainly will be good enough to make the Sweet 16, regardless of seeding. They are starting to show some signs of growth, and with (at least) four lottery picks on the roster, I’m not ready to write this group off yet.
VCU Rams: The Rams play such a unique and tough-to-prepare-for style, they can spring an upset on a team with a back court that’s uncomfortable going against their pressure. The key for VCU is and always will be turnovers in the full court; given their lack of size, half court defense is not a strength for Shaka Smart’s club.
Pitt Panthers: The Panthers are almost certainly going to be underseeded as a result of their embarrassing non-conference schedule. And trust me when I tell you this is a good basketball team. They can defend, they are excellent at getting to the offensive glass, they pass the ball well and they have an underrated back court. You don’t want to see the Panthers in the second round of the tournament.
St. Louis Billikens: Tough, physical, half court defense. That’s how St. Louis wins game. And that’s out a team with less athleticism and less talent can win a basketball game. And, like Pitt, thanks to a couple of questionable losses this year, the Billikens are probably going to be seeded lower than they should be.
Long Beach State 49ers: LBSU isn’t going to be getting a seeding much better than 14 or 15, but this is a group with high-major talent and athleticism. James Ennis is legit, and he’s got a slew of talent — Michael Caffey, former top 25 recruit Keala King, DePaul transfer Tony Freeland, West Virginia transfer Dan Jennings — around him.
Five higher seeds that may bow out early:
NC State Wolfpack: NC State doesn’t defend at all, their star point guard has a bum ankle and has been up-and-down all season long, and their most talented player struggles when trying to take a game over and has been ineffective down the stretch. There’s so much to like about NC State this season, which is why it’s frustrating to see them struggle.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: I just don’t trust Minnesota offensively. So much of what they do relies on their ability to get to the offensive glass. Good teams are going to be able to keep them from getting there; it’s going to depend on the matchup. I don’t trust Minnesota to be consistent. They lost four in a row at the end of last month, and needed an impressive choke-job from Iowa to avoid losing to the Hawkeyes.
Creighton Bluejays: The Bluejays are a much-improved defensive team this season, yet they still rank 81st in the country in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom. Throw in the fact that this is a team that survives because of their ability to shoot the basketball, and they are a risky play. On the nights those threes go down, they’re going to be tough to beat. On the nights they don’t, the Bluejays can be beaten.
Oregon Ducks: How healthy is Dominic Artis? That’s the biggest concern for Oregon right now, because without him, the Ducks simply cannot protect the ball. Already in the bottom third of the country when it comes to turnover percentage, Oregon has seen that number dip to 29.8% — literally the worst in the country — in the last three games without him.
Butler Bulldogs: I realize that it’s sacrilegious to say that Butler might get knocked out of the tournament early. I’m not happy about doing it. But here’s my thought process: Butler is good, but they don’t play the kind of defense that we expect out of Butler teams. They can struggle against teams that defend them physically (ahem, St. Louis) and I don’t love Butler’s point guard situation. But thanks to wins over Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette and North Carolina, Butler looks like they could be in line for a three or a four seed, depending on how the A-10 plays out.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 1, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT
You need a very understanding wife to get away with this.
Sep 1, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT
Tennessee has one scholarship left available for 2015.
Sep 1, 2014, 12:54 PM EDT
Find out why Saint Louis and Missouri are on the list along with the likes of Arizona, Kentucky, Duke and Kansas.
Sep 1, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Izzo spoke on the phone with the caddie for 15 minutes.
Sep 1, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
Bolden is a 6-foot-9 center from Texas
Aug 31, 2014, 11:43 PM EDT
The second team All-MAC selection scored eight points in Senegal’s win over Puerto Rico.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
Bruce Weber now has three verbal commitments in the Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:05 PM EDT
5-foot-11 point guard Glynn Watson becomes Nebraska’s second 2015 commitment.
Aug 31, 2014, 8:02 PM EDT
Slender forward Brandon Ingram is one of the best perimeter prospects in the Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
Tennessee is on the board in 2015 due to the addition of a versatile 6-foot-5 forward.
Aug 31, 2014, 5:23 PM EDT
Roy Williams challenged his players in the Bahamas, and the accepted it on Saturday afternoon.
Aug 31, 2014, 3:39 PM EDT
Malik Newman is the No. 3 overall recruit, according to Rivals.
Aug 31, 2014, 1:35 PM EDT
The Robinson brothers are the first two commits in Quinnipiac’s Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
The Cougars have been without a head coach since Aug. 5.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:17 AM EDT
Bruce Pearl has landed five commitments in 10 days.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
More dunks from one of the best all-star games of the summer.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Connor McCaffery was expected to play for his father, and he announced the intention to do so Saturday.
Aug 30, 2014, 9:57 PM EDT
The Floridian averaged 26 points per game as a high school junior.
Aug 30, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Yanick Moreira missed time last season due to injury, so this month could prove incredibly valuable for both he and the SMU program he’ll rejoin.
Aug 30, 2014, 6:43 PM EDT
Providence is looking to reach consecutive NCAA tournaments for the first time since the 1989 and 1990 seasons.
- Top talent in 2016 announces a top ten 1
- North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham comments on Rashad McCants situation 1
- College Basketball Talk’s Recruiting Roundup 0
- Former Michigan center discusses hasty departure for the NBA (VIDEO) 0
- Five-star 2015 center trims list to five 1
- College of Charleston coaching search takes another turn 0
- Rivals releases new rankings for the Class of 2015 0
- DePaul’s Purnell loses fifth recruit that signed letter of intent (3)
- Former Ole Miss star Marshall Henderson getting pro tryout in Italy (2)
- Will Bill Self and Kansas play small-ball this season? (2)
- Report: Ex-Spartan forward headed to Ohio (1)
- Blue Ribbon releases their Preseason First Team All-Americans (1)