Feb 4, 2013, 10:00 PM EDT
A hearty welcome to those of you just now joining the rest of us in following college basketball now that football season has ended. We’ll be running a series of posts to get all you football fans caught up on the season at-large. To read through them all, click here.
It’s never to early to start thinking about the NCAA tournament bracket and your office pool. In fact, I’d say that’s the reason that 75% of the people that watch college basketball on any given night are doing it. Scouting.
I get it.
It’s been four years since I haven’t finished in the money in a tournament pool. So book mark this page, and consider it my gift to you: a guide of who to focus on while you “scout”.
Five lower seeds that can make a tournament run:
Kentucky Wildcats: Kentucky’s on pace to end up getting somewhere around an eight or a nine seed. If I’m John Calipari, I’m hoping for a seven or a ten seed. Or lower. I don’t know if the Wildcats have the horses to knock off one of the top four teams in the country, but I think they certainly will be good enough to make the Sweet 16, regardless of seeding. They are starting to show some signs of growth, and with (at least) four lottery picks on the roster, I’m not ready to write this group off yet.
VCU Rams: The Rams play such a unique and tough-to-prepare-for style, they can spring an upset on a team with a back court that’s uncomfortable going against their pressure. The key for VCU is and always will be turnovers in the full court; given their lack of size, half court defense is not a strength for Shaka Smart’s club.
Pitt Panthers: The Panthers are almost certainly going to be underseeded as a result of their embarrassing non-conference schedule. And trust me when I tell you this is a good basketball team. They can defend, they are excellent at getting to the offensive glass, they pass the ball well and they have an underrated back court. You don’t want to see the Panthers in the second round of the tournament.
St. Louis Billikens: Tough, physical, half court defense. That’s how St. Louis wins game. And that’s out a team with less athleticism and less talent can win a basketball game. And, like Pitt, thanks to a couple of questionable losses this year, the Billikens are probably going to be seeded lower than they should be.
Long Beach State 49ers: LBSU isn’t going to be getting a seeding much better than 14 or 15, but this is a group with high-major talent and athleticism. James Ennis is legit, and he’s got a slew of talent — Michael Caffey, former top 25 recruit Keala King, DePaul transfer Tony Freeland, West Virginia transfer Dan Jennings — around him.
Five higher seeds that may bow out early:
NC State Wolfpack: NC State doesn’t defend at all, their star point guard has a bum ankle and has been up-and-down all season long, and their most talented player struggles when trying to take a game over and has been ineffective down the stretch. There’s so much to like about NC State this season, which is why it’s frustrating to see them struggle.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: I just don’t trust Minnesota offensively. So much of what they do relies on their ability to get to the offensive glass. Good teams are going to be able to keep them from getting there; it’s going to depend on the matchup. I don’t trust Minnesota to be consistent. They lost four in a row at the end of last month, and needed an impressive choke-job from Iowa to avoid losing to the Hawkeyes.
Creighton Bluejays: The Bluejays are a much-improved defensive team this season, yet they still rank 81st in the country in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom. Throw in the fact that this is a team that survives because of their ability to shoot the basketball, and they are a risky play. On the nights those threes go down, they’re going to be tough to beat. On the nights they don’t, the Bluejays can be beaten.
Oregon Ducks: How healthy is Dominic Artis? That’s the biggest concern for Oregon right now, because without him, the Ducks simply cannot protect the ball. Already in the bottom third of the country when it comes to turnover percentage, Oregon has seen that number dip to 29.8% — literally the worst in the country — in the last three games without him.
Butler Bulldogs: I realize that it’s sacrilegious to say that Butler might get knocked out of the tournament early. I’m not happy about doing it. But here’s my thought process: Butler is good, but they don’t play the kind of defense that we expect out of Butler teams. They can struggle against teams that defend them physically (ahem, St. Louis) and I don’t love Butler’s point guard situation. But thanks to wins over Indiana, Gonzaga, Marquette and North Carolina, Butler looks like they could be in line for a three or a four seed, depending on how the A-10 plays out.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Mar 29, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT
Three one-seeds have made it to the Final Four, with No. 7 Michigan State being the exception.
Mar 29, 2015, 7:10 PM EDT
Duke is the third No. 1 seed to reach Indianapolis.
Mar 29, 2015, 6:56 PM EDT
Duryea has been with the program for 14 seasons.
Mar 29, 2015, 6:25 PM EDT
We now know who plays when during the Final Four.
Mar 29, 2015, 6:04 PM EDT
Hurley just completed his third season with the Rams.
Mar 29, 2015, 5:02 PM EDT
This is the first Final Four Michigan State has been to since 2009.
Mar 29, 2015, 2:24 PM EDT
Dave Leitao is the leading candidate to become the head coach at DePaul for a second time.
Mar 29, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
Five-star big man Ivan Rabb makes a clutch free throw to win a California state title.
Mar 29, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
Wisconsin and Kentucky get to play again after last season’s thrilling National Semifinal.
Mar 29, 2015, 8:37 AM EDT
The label of “best coach yet to reach a Final Four” will remain Miller’s for another offseason, whether that’s fair or not.
Mar 28, 2015, 11:07 PM EDT
The Wildcats knocked off a tough Notre Dame team.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:35 PM EDT
Dekker scored 20 of his 27 points in the second half at Wisconsin beat Arizona in the Elite Eight for the second straight year.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:34 PM EDT
Frank got a little funky after Wisconsin’s win over Arizona.
Mar 28, 2015, 8:27 PM EDT
This is too funny.
Mar 28, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
Barnes coached at Texas for 17 seasons.
Mar 28, 2015, 5:32 PM EDT
So Andrew Harrison was a grown man in middle school?
Arrests made as Michigan State fans gather, set fires near off-campus apartments after Sweet 16 win (VIDEO)
Mar 28, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
Some Michigan State students got a little too rowdy following a win over Oklahoma.
Mar 28, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
The Citadel hired away the head coach of a Southern Conference rival.
Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey on college hoops: ‘It’s absolute torture watching some of these games’ (AUDIO)
Mar 28, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey had some strong words on the current state of college basketball.
Mar 28, 2015, 12:17 PM EDT
Frank Kaminsky’s path to stardom may not follow that of last year’s national Player of the Year winner, Doug McDermott, but it’s one that many players hope to navigate during their own time in school.
- No. 7 Michigan State reaches the Final Four for the seventh time under Izzo 6
- Wisconsin vs. Kentucky: The Final Four rematch we deserved to see 6
- No. 2 Arizona, Sean Miller’s quest to reach Final Four once again falls short 7
- Andrew Harrison’s late free throws send No. 1 Kentucky to the Final Four 67
- Sam Dekker, Frank Kaminsky catch fire as No. 1 Wisconsin beats No. 2 Arizona 9
- Rick Barnes is no longer the head coach at Texas 15
- Frank Kaminsky’s growth results in individual and team benefits for No. 1 Wisconsin 3
- Andrew Harrison’s late free throws send No. 1 Kentucky to the Final Four (67)
- Kentucky’s John Calipari is the National Coach of the Year, and it’s not close (36)
- Kentucky responds to Daxter Miles Jr.’s pregame comments (30)
- Updated tournament records: Big Ten teams make up half of Final Four (25)
- West Virginia freshman on Kentucky: ‘They’re going to be 36-1′ (20)