Contenders and Pretenders

Rob Dauster

Feb 4, 2013, 8:00 PM EDT

5 Comments

A hearty welcome to those of you just now joining the rest of us in following college basketball now that football season has ended. We’ll be running a series of posts to get all you football fans caught up on the season at-large. To read through them all, click here.

Out of any season in recent memory, there are more contenders this season than there have been in recent years. There does not appear to be a great team as of now — although Florida is doing everything they can to convince us otherwise — as opposed to a handful of really good teams that have the pieces to win six straight games in the tournament but a fatal flaw that could leave them exposed in the right matchup.

Here are the nation’s five leading contenders and pretenders:

Contender: Florida Gators

We wrote on the Gators earlier today, so I won’t go into too much detail here. The long and short of it is that Florida is as tough defensively as any team we’ve seen in the last decade, and they can just as effective playing man, going zone or throwing on a press, That’s a nightmare to prepare for, especially when they have an offensive attack that rivals Michigan and Indiana.

Pretender: Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is 19-2 on the season and carries with it a No. 7 national ranking. They are a good basketball team that could end up winning the Pac-12. But that gaudy record is the result of some lucky breaks: Nick Johnson’s game-saving block against San Diego State, Sabatino Chen’s game-winner that was incorrectly waved off, Florida playing like a high school JV team in the final minute. There is nothing about the roster makeup of the Wildcats that scares a championship-caliber team.

Contender: Indiana Hoosiers

The Hoosiers have arguably the most talented player in the country on their roster in Cody Zeller, and he isn’t even the MVP of this team. Victor Oladipo is. That’s how good Indiana is. They are still scoring like they did last season, only now they have a defense that ranks in the top 20 and one of the best on-ball defenders in the country in Oladipo.

Pretender: Duke Blue Devils

Duke is currently sitting at No. 4 in the country, but that has as much to do with what they did at the start of the season — rolling through the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they beat Louisville, VCU and Minnesota — than what they have done recently — which includes a 27 point loss to Miami. Duke is missing Ryan Kelly, who is a key piece on both sides of the ball. Duke will be a pretender until he’s back in the lineup.

Contender: Michigan Wolverines

John Beilein’s club is the most potent offensive attack in the country and led by the most dangerous point guard in the country in Trey Burke. The Wolverines have a typical John Beilein-esque roster makeup in terms of their versatility, but instead of having guys like Zak Novak and Stu Douglass on the wings, they have NBA prospects in Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III.

Pretender: Kansas Jayhawks

Ugh. It kills me to say this because I picked Kansas to win the title this year, but I just think they have too many concerns offensively. They don’t have a point guard, as Bill Self made quite clear. Their star player can’t create on his own. They don’t have a viable low-post scoring threat. As good as Kansas is defensively, I just see them having issues scoring against good teams.

Contender: Louisville Cardinals

Louisville was the No. 1 team in the country and a popular pick as the best team in college hoops as recently a two weeks ago. But then they went out and lost three games — by a total of 13 points — and dropped to 12th in the country. Three close losses changes that much about how a team is viewed? Louisville’s pressure is unmatched, and as long as they avoid extended droughts offensively, they’ll be fine.

Pretender: Ohio State Buckeyes

Deshaun Thomas may be the best scorer in the country. Aaron Craft may be the best defender in the country. Beyond that, there’s a lot of ‘meh’ when you look at Ohio State’s roster. Craft is too often forced into the role of secondary scorer, and that’s not how you want him to play. No interior scoring presence hurts as well.

Contender: Michigan State Spartans

Typical Tom Izzo. Sparty is big, they are tough and they are physical. They rebound the ball and they defend. Most importantly, they have a pair of guards in Keith Appling and Gary Harris that are a threat to go for 20 on any given night.When Tom Izzo has a good team, you don’t want to get caught betting against him.

Pretender: Gonzaga Bulldogs

This one hurts, too. I really like this Gonzaga team. They are as good as they have been since Adam Morrison was stache-ing it up in Spokane. They have a pair of big men that are an awful lot of fun to watch in Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. Kevin Pangos is as good of a shooter as you are going to find. They just don’t defend well enough — especially when Olynyk is on the floor as the same time as Pangos and David Stockton — to stop good teams with elite guards.

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5 Comments (Feed for Comments)

jonrox - Feb 5, 2013 at 12:20 AM

Sparty is the name of Michigan State’s mascot. It is not the name of the University, any of its sporting teams, or its students.

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imwhitewolf - Feb 5, 2013 at 1:15 AM

Gonzaga, you are right. Each year they look good until the tourney. Then we find out how bad their guards really are.
Michigan State, nope.
Louisville, tossup. Both guards have to be playing well but Russ Smith isn’t quite on his game right now.
And then there is Duke. Kelly’s loss is big, no doubt but the Blue Devils have quite a few other weapons at their disposal. Cook has matured into the point guard everyone expected him to be coming out of high school. Curry can score with anyone. Sulaimon is developing into both a very good defensive player and a very good scorer. Jefferson lacks ther bulk he’ll put on the next couple years but he is quick and athletic. Plumlee has had an awesome year. His only drawback is still his free throw shooting. This is a team, like two years ago when Irving got hurt, trying to remake itself during the season. This Thursday will tell exactly how far this version has come. If Kelly returns by the tourney and can get back to some semblence of himself Duke will be a dangerous team.

BTW Rob, I’ve rooted for the Blue Devils since 1961 and just finished an online course from Duke. I feel like a “real” Dukie now.

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wickerwich - Feb 5, 2013 at 11:05 AM

Maybe Indiana should beat a decent team on the road before we consider the Hoosiers a real contender. I know the media is all over the IU story, and I know they came into this season with a lot of hype, but the only thing they’ve proven thus far is that they can beat good teams at home (well, other than Wisconsin), which is something that almost every team on that list above has done.

Compare Indiana to, say, Ohio State. What separates IU and OSU? OSU has two more losses but has played a significantly tougher schedule than IU. The only difference is really OSU’s losses to Kansas and Duke, both tougher games than anything IU had in the nonconference other than maybe Butler, a game IU lost. Both teams beat Michigan at home.

We’ll find out A LOT more about Indiana in the next couple of weeks, when they actually have to go on the road against good teams. I’m not saying IU won’t be a contender–that would be silly. I am saying that the jury may still be out on them.

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- stlouis1baseball - Feb 11, 2013 at 4:14 PM
  
  Alright wicker…
  They have now beaten a decent team on the road. By 13 points no less.
  Still a long way to go. Got Michigan, Michigan State and Minnesota on the road.
  Ohio St. still has to come to Bloomington. All four games are gonna’ be dog fights.
  The Big Ten is stacked!
  But I will take my chances with the Hoosiers.
  
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tomjpatterson - Feb 7, 2013 at 9:05 PM

Arizona has always been a team on the edge. They were 5th in the Pac-10 when they won the National Championship. But come on; how can you call Nick Johnson’s game saving block a lucky break. Florida playing like a JV team the last minute had a lot to do with a smothering Wildcat defense. Since when does your opposing team going through a bad streak a lucky break. You don’t mention their victory over Miami at all. Does it really hurt that much that the west is playing so good?

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