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No doubting ‘Canes — they’re a 1 seed in our new NCAA tourney projections

Feb 12, 2013, 8:57 AM EDT

Kenny Kadji AP

Healthy and playing some sugar-sweet basketball, the Miami Hurricanes are the latest team to grab a No. 1 seed in our latest bracket.  Miami sits atop the East Region.  Despite a last-second loss at Illinois, Indiana remains the No. 1 overall seed thanks to an impressive road win at Ohio State on Sunday.  Michigan and Duke are the other top seeds.  Based on recent history, however, the race for the top line is far from over.  Arizona, Florida, Gonzaga, and Michigan State are in the mix, too.  And it’s not too late for Syracuse to move back up.  Then there’s Kansas, which put together an impressive bounce-back against rival Kansas State on Monday.

Bracket rules what they are, there are a few quirks in this edition – such as potential third-round rematches between Illinois and Gonzaga and Kentucky and Duke.  While the Selection Committee tries to avoid such rematches in the first two/three rounds, it’s not a hard-and-fast rule.  In these cases, other conflicts created the rematch scenarios.  In fact, Illinois is one a few teams that moved a seed line to avoid bracket conflicts.  A true nine seed (s-curve No. 36), the Illini couldn’t be placed in the top half of any region because of other Big Ten opponents.  Such moves are not uncommon.

As for the bottom of the bracket – or the bubble – Baylor, Temple, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, and St. John’s are the last five teams in today.  One could make a case for a handful of others. Virginia is a particularly challenging case and is the first team out.  The Cavaliers are 6-0 vs. Top 100 RPI teams – including a win at Wisconsin.  But they also have several troubling losses – none more than Old Dominion at home.  UVA also has a very weak non-conference strength of schedule.  It’s hard to be confident in the Cavaliers’ profile given the above scenario.

We have a long way to go.  Other teams knocking on the door?  Villanova, Arizona State, Massachusetts, Boise State, and Stanford.  And that might change by midweek.  It’s been one of those seasons.  Enjoy another great week of hoops.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • St. John’s vs. La Salle | East Region
  • Temple vs. St. Mary’s | Midwest Region
  • NORFOLK STATE vs. FLORIDA GULF COAST | Midwest Region
  • UNC-ASHEVILLE vs. SOUTHERN | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTWashington, DC MIDWEST- Indianapolis
Lexington Dayton
1) MIAMI-FL 1) INDIANA
16) UNC-ASHEVILLE / SOUTHERN 16) FLA GULF COAST / NORFOLK ST
8) CREIGHTON 8) VCU
9) MEMPHIS 9) Colorado State
Austin San Jose
5) Ohio State 5) Marquette
12) St. John’s / La Salle 12) Temple / Saint Mary’s
4) BUTLER 4) Kansas State
13) LEHIGH 13) AKRON
Philadelphia Dayton
6) Oregon 6) San Diego State
11) North Carolina 11) Colorado
3) SYRACUSE 3) Louisville
14) DAVIDSON 14) HARVARD
Auburn Hills Lexington
7) UNLV 7) NC State
10) Oklahoma 10) Iowa State
2) Michigan State 2) FLORIDA
15) VERMONT 15) NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles
Auburn Hills Philadelphia
1) Michigan 1) Duke
16) BRYANT 16) LONG BEACH
8) Missouri 8) Kentucky
9) Saint Louis 9) Wichita State
Austin Kansas City
5) Oklahoma State 5) Wisconsin
12) MID TENNESSEE ST 12) BELMONT
4) Pittsburgh 4) Georgetown
13) LOUISIANA TECH 13) VALPARAISO
Salt Lake Kansas City
6) Notre Dame 6) Cincinnati
11) Baylor 11) Indiana State
3) NEW MEXICO 3) KANSAS
14) MONTANA 14) S.F. AUSTIN
Salt Lake San Jose
7) UCLA 7) Minnesota
10) Illinois 10) Mississippi
2) GONZAGA 2) ARIZONA
15) NIAGARA 15) WESTERN ILLINOIS

NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Miami-FL, Michigan, and Duke.

Last Five teams in (at large): Baylor, Temple, La Salle, Saint Mary’s, St. John’s

First Five teams out (at large): Virginia, Villanova, Arizona State, Massachusetts, Boise State

Next Five teams out (at large): Stanford, Charlotte, Bucknell, California, Florida State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, St. John’s

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis

ACC (4): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL

Pac 12 (4): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon

SEC (4): Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi

Mountain West (4): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Indiana State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), LEHIGH (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), WESTERN ILLINOIS(Summit), VALPARAISO (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), LOUISIANA TECH (WAC), NIAGARA (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), AKRON (MAC), FLORIDA GULF COAST (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), LONG BEACH (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), VERMONT (American East), MONTANA (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), UNC-ASHEVILLE (Big South), BRYANT (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)

  1. jpopejoy - Feb 12, 2013 at 10:33 AM

    These are always interesting to see. It’s funny that the Michigan bracket looks BY far the easiest. As an Indiana fan, I sincerely hope that we don’t have VCU round 2 and Florida as the 2 seed. Would much rather have the zags.

    My god college basketball is good this year!

    • imwhitewolf - Feb 12, 2013 at 7:15 PM

      I agree. This is a wide open tourney this year. There are some very good teams but no real standouts this season. I can already hear alot of the crying when most people’s brackets, mine included, take a beating the first weekend.

  2. savoirlaire - Feb 12, 2013 at 10:57 AM

    “Arizona, Florida, Gonzaga, and Michigan State are in the mix, too.”

    Arizona? Are you f-cking kidding me? It’s bad enough a Gonzaga gets to slide in there, but AZ? Who did they pay off to only slip from 7th to 9th after losing at home…to Cal? Oh, I know, it’s ESPN…those pesky late games require a west coast team, I guess.

    AZ sucks and would have lost 8-10 games by now if they played in the Big East or Big Ten, or, hell, the Mountain West!

    • imwhitewolf - Feb 12, 2013 at 7:13 PM

      Gonzaga a #2 seed? What a joke. They have played three games against top 25 teams and lost two of them. Their conference is pathetic. You have St Mary’s in the tourney. Their record is 21-4 yet they’ve played ONE ranked team this year. That being Gonzaga, which they lost. They also lost to Pacific and Georga Tech.

      At the highest Gonzaga should be a #4, or even a #5, seed. Their guard play has killed them in past tourneys and will do so again this season. I live less than twenty miles from GU so I have seen many of their games this year. They’re like a broken record, an excellent record made of beating up on inferior conference opponents, yet they get bounced early every year. Until they get into a good conference and prove they belong I expect we’ll keep seeing the same result.

  3. sbmcintosh36 - Feb 12, 2013 at 1:47 PM

    Is this the same UA team that beat Florida and Miami already that you’re referring to???

    • savoirlaire - Feb 12, 2013 at 10:42 PM

      No, this is the one that lost to Oregon, UCLA and Cal since they won those before the holiday…you know, last year. Like I said, Big East, Big Ten and Mountain West. Not ACC or SEC…

  4. rodge1 - Feb 12, 2013 at 6:25 PM

    Miami is playing on a different level since the Arizona loss.

  5. mazblast - Feb 12, 2013 at 10:40 PM

    Coach K must be seething right now. The nerve of the NCAA to not have a sub-regional within 50 miles of Durham! It’s unthinkable, making his precious Dookies go all the way to Philadelphia to play!

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