Feb 12, 2013, 1:36 PM EDT
Believe it or not, it’s now mid-February, which means that March Madness is right around the corner. We’ve already given you our newest bracket and bubble watch, but we will also be taking a weekly look at some of this season’s wackiest at-large profiles. All RPI and SOS numbers via WarrenNolan.com.
Virginia (17-6, 7-3) RPI: 81, SOS: 154
Virginia may have the strangest profile I’ve ever seen. The Cavs are 6-0 against the RPI top 100, and have managed to put together some impressive wins — at Wisconsin, NC State, North Carolina, at Maryland. The problem, however, is that the ‘Hoos have been just atrocious against some of the worst teams they have played. All six of their losses have come against teams with RPI’s in the triple digits. They are 0-3 against the CAA, including the RPI killing loss to Old Dominion (who is 3-22 and 319th in the RPI). They’ve lost at Clemson, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. They played the 320th worst non-conference schedule in the country. Only Iowa’s is worse among teams in the RPI top 100.
Only USC in 2011 has gotten an at-large bid with six bad losses, and only George Washington in 2006 (when they went 26-2 and got an eight seed) has gotten an at-large bid with a non-conference SOS as high as 320.
But here’s the catch. Starting point guard Jontel Evans was injured earlier this year. He didn’t play in losses to ODU and George Mason and played just three minutes in the loss to Delaware. Do they win those games with Evans? How different does Virginia’s profile look without those ugly losses weighing it down? And, if Virginia has a healthy Evans and beats Delaware, they would have headed to the Preseason NIT semifinals in NYC, where they would have played Pitt and either Michigan or Kansas State. That would have boosted their non-conference schedule just a bit, I’d say.
Here’s the good news: Virginia still gets to play at North Carolina, at Miami and at home against Duke. They’ll have their chances to play their way into the tournament.
Indiana State (15-8, 9-4) RPI: 45, SOS: 50
The Sycamores are like a miniature version of UVA. Their good wins are really, really good. They beat Miami (No. 2 in the RPI) and Ole Miss in the Diamond Head Classic out in Hawaii, they won at Wichita State by 13 and knocked off Creighton at home by 19. They are tied for first in the Missouri Valley and can win the conference outright if they win out and if Wichita State wins at Creighton.
But the Trees also have some head-scratching losses. Morehead State beat them, as did Drake, Illinois State and Southern Illinois, who is 215th in the RPI. They have three road games in their final five in league play. Might want to avoid losing one of those.
Illinois (16-8, 4-7) RPI: 26, SOS: 5
No one in the country makes less sense than Illinois. They started off the regular season looking like an actual threat to compete for a Big Ten title, as they went into Spokane and knocked off Gonzaga, won the Maui Invitational with a 17 point win over Butler and smacked around Ohio State in their Big Ten opener. And then, the Illini proceeded to lose eight of their next 11 games and all but knocked themselves out of bubble contention.
Just when it seemed like John Groce’s club quite on the season, they turned around and beat Indiana at home and then went into Minneapolis and knocked off Minnesota. Put it all together, and Illinois has a top 30 RPI, five wins against the top 50, the fifth-toughest schedule in the country and a 4-7 record in the Big Ten.
Ole Miss (18-5, 7-3) RPI: 47, SOS: 105
The Rebels have a profile that looks like it would belong to a team coming out of Conference USA or the WAC. Their computer numbers aren’t terrible, but they aren’t great. They’re competing for a league title, but they are doing so in a conference that’s a long way from good. They haven’t lost to anyone outside the top 50 in the RPI, but they’ve only won one game against the RPI top 50 and that came when Missouri was playing without Laurence Bowers.
In essence, there is nothing bad about Ole Miss’ resume other than the fact that there is nothing good about it. And the worst part is that playing in the SEC won’t provide anymore chances for big wins until the SEC tournament. The Rebels play as many teams with an RPI in the 200s as they do teams in the top 100 — three.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
San Diego turned to a former player to lead the basketball program.
Mar 31, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Head coach Ernie Kent is losing three first-year players after his first season at the helm.
Mar 31, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
It appears Travis Ford will stay at Oklahoma State for now.
Mar 31, 2015, 7:50 PM EDT
Could Murray State guard Cameron Payne enter the NBA Draft?
Mar 31, 2015, 6:40 PM EDT
UNLV officially loses Rashad Vaughn to the NBA Draft.
Mar 31, 2015, 5:35 PM EDT
Rhode Island landed an impact transfer on Tuesday.
Mar 31, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Georgetown takes a major hit with the loss of D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera.
Mar 31, 2015, 3:22 PM EDT
Barry Hinson is not happy about losing the players he brought into the program.
Mar 31, 2015, 2:44 PM EDT
It wasn’t as good as the last two years, but there were still some impressive dunks.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:55 PM EDT
Teams that won the first meeting have won three of the four Final Four/title game rematches, with Duke (1990-91) being the lone exception.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT
Mickey is the second player from LSU to declare this month.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:19 PM EDT
This is nasty.
Mar 31, 2015, 12:09 PM EDT
Bobby Knight would probably not approve of that.
Mar 31, 2015, 11:42 AM EDT
My advice: Hedge that bet, sir!
Mar 31, 2015, 10:01 AM EDT
Lewis will have some well known suitors this offseason.
Mar 31, 2015, 9:57 AM EDT
Barnes spent the last 17 seasons at Texas.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:10 PM EDT
UConn, Notre Dame, South Carolina and Maryland make up the 2015 women’s Final Four.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Some great names highlight this list.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:24 PM EDT
Williams was the leading scorer and rebounder for the Tigers this season.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Nebraska forward Walter Pitchford is giving up basketball for his senior season.
- Frank Kaminsky, Jahlil Okafor highlight five Wooden Award finalists 3
- 2015 NCAA Tournament All-Second Weekend Team 2
- While a major question remains unanswered, No. 4 North Carolina can be special in 2015-16 3
- Tournament darling R.J. Hunter is heading to the NBA 3
- Texas freshman Myles Turner declares for the NBA Draft 6
- The Final Four is set, and it’s going to be insane 24
- No. 7 Michigan State reaches the Final Four for the seventh time under Izzo 15
- Andrew Harrison’s late free throws send No. 1 Kentucky to the Final Four (88)
- Kentucky responds to Daxter Miles Jr.’s pregame comments (30)
- Updated tournament records: Big Ten teams make up half of Final Four (27)
- The Final Four is set, and it’s going to be insane (24)
- West Virginia freshman on Kentucky: ‘They’re going to be 36-1′ (21)