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Miami, Florida grab No. 1 seeds, Kentucky in the tournament?

Feb 26, 2013, 8:54 AM EDT

Kenny Kadji AP

This probably isn’t a surprise: Indiana and Duke are one-two on the s-curve and are the strongest No. 1 seed candidates as we move toward March.  Since a last-second loss at Illinois, the Hoosiers have reclaimed the outright Big Ten lead by winning at both Ohio State and Michigan State.  A victory at Minnesota tonight puts IU in the driver’s seat for the league’s regular season crown and top seed in the Big Ten tournament.  That scenario would also give the Hoosiers the inside track toward the top spot in the Midwest Region – which flows through Indianapolis.  Duke has steadily worked its way through the absence of Ryan Kelly.  The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the RPI and have played the nation’s second toughest schedule.

Miami-FL and Florida are the final No. 1 seeds.  It’s hard to know if either will hold those positions in two weeks.  A second Big Team is likely to grab a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.  And if Gonzaga closes out a perfect West Coast Conference season and wins its conference tournament, it might be hard for the Committee to deny the Bulldogs a top seed.  Regardless, there’s enough parity among the top three or four seed lines to make the Sweet 16 very entertaining.

Every Selection Committee member has his or her own personal views on which resume items are most important.  Just take a look at some of today’s bubble teams.  Arizona State, Mississippi, Baylor, and Kentucky all have obvious flaws.  If RPI and schedule strength – particularly out of conference – are sticking points, than the Sun Devils are probably out.  At the same time, ASU has two wins over Colorado to go along with victories over UCLA and California.  That’s four wins against three teams currently projected in the Field of 68 – which is more than any of the other three.  Safe to say, the next two weeks will be critical for all of the above.

UPDATED: February 26, 2013

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Kentucky vs. Saint Mary’s | Midwest Region
  • Virginia vs. Arizona State | West Region
  • NORFOLK STATE vs. SOUTHERN | East Region
  • CHARLESTON SO vs. ROBERT MORRIS | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTWashington, DC                     MIDWEST- Indianapolis
Philadelphia Dayton
1) Duke 1) INDIANA
16) NORFOLK ST / SOUTHERN 16) ROB MORRIS / CHARLESTON-SO
8) San Diego State 8) NC State
9) Missouri 9) Oklahoma
Kansas City Salt Lake
5) Notre Dame 5) Butler
12) Iowa State 12) Kentucky / Saint Mary’s
4) Wisconsin 4) Syracuse
13) BUCKNELL 13) DAVIDSON
Philadelphia Salt Lake
6) MEMPHIS 6) OREGON
11) La Salle 11) Villanova
3) GEORGETOWN 3) NEW MEXICO
14) STONY BROOK 14) SF AUSTIN
Auburn Hills Kansas City
7) UCLA 7) Illinois
10) North Carolina 10) Creighton
2) Michigan State 2) KANSAS
15) HARVARD 15) SOUTH DAKOTA ST
SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles
Lexington Lexington
1) MIAMI-FL 1) FLORIDA
16) NORTHEASTERN 16) MERCER
8) VCU 8) WICHITA STATE
9) Colorado 9) Cincinnati
Austin Austin
5) Marquette 5) Ohio State
12) AKRON 12) Virginia / Arizona State
4) Kansas State 4) Oklahoma State
13) BELMONT 13) LOUISIANA TECH
Dayton San Jose
6) SAINT LOUIS 6) UNLV
11) MID TENNESSEE ST 11) Temple
3) Louisville 3) Arizona
14) VALPARAISO 14) MONTANA
Auburn Hills San Jose
7) Colorado State 7) Pittsburgh
10) California 10) Minnesota
2) Michigan 2) GONZAGA
15) NIAGARA 15) LONG BEACH

NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Duke, Miami-FL, and Florida. Next in line are Gonzaga, Michigan State, Michigan, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Iowa State, Virginia, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky, Arizona State

First Five teams out (at large): Baylor, Mississippi, Tennessee, Maryland, Alabama

Next Five teams out (at large): Arkansas, St. John’s, Charlotte, Boise State, Indiana State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon, California, Arizona State

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis

ACC (5): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL, Virginia

SEC (3): Missouri, Florida, Kentucky

Mountain West (4): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), BUCKNELL (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(Summit), VALPARAISO (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), LOUISIANA TECH (WAC), NIAGARA (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), AKRON (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), LONG BEACH (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), STONY BROOK (American East), MONTANA (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN (Big South), ROBERT MORRIS (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)

  1. ramsyanks - Feb 26, 2013 at 9:24 AM

    I understand this is not a good UNC team but how could they be a 10 seed and NC State an 8 when UNC split with them and has the harder schedule? Also, UNC is ahead of State in the ACC.

    • florida727 - Feb 26, 2013 at 10:29 AM

      I know what you mean. Sometimes these seedings / rankings make no sense at all. The latest rankings show Florida at #7 or #8, depending on the poll. RPI I think they are #4. Do the polls factor in? I’m guessing as long as you’re top 8, it doesn’t really matter. Since it’s all neutral site, relatively speaking, I’m guessing you just don’t want to have to beat BOTH a #1 AND a #2 in your region (inside 72 hours no less) to get to the Final Four. Otherwise, being a #1 v. a #2 is more bragging rights than anything else.

  2. creek0512 - Feb 26, 2013 at 12:09 PM

    There is no such thing as the s-curve. It’s something ESPN made up.

  3. atwatercrushesokoye - Feb 27, 2013 at 12:16 AM

    With the way Miami has been playing the past 2 weeks they’re a pretty weak 1 seed regardless of what measure you use, a lot of teams will want to be in their region. They’d better cash it in this year cause next year they’ll be back to being Miami and after the way they’ve been acting with this success (particularly against UNC) I’m guessing they’re going to have a pretty rough ride next year.

    I also agree with ramsyanks, the Heels split with State, have a better RPI, better SOS, and a better ACC record, seems odd they would be ranked lower. But a victory over Dook and a strong showing in the ACC tourney should help elevate them.

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