Mar 2, 2013, 7:04 PM EDT
Following No. 1 Indiana’s loss to Minnesota on Tuesday, and Virginia’s big upset of No. 3 Duke, No. 2 Gonzaga appears poised to seize the school’s first No. 1 ranking ever. The questions began to circulate immediately: Do they belong on top? Can they handle the pressure?
The first step in quieting the naysayers happened today: Gonzaga pounded Portland 81-52. It’s not a particularly impressive win in context of the weakness of the West Coast Conference this season, but it’s mega-impressive in the larger context of the top five this season. Indiana is the latest No. 1 team to suffer a surprising loss, but hardly the first. So, we’ll not scoff at the Bulldogs for handling the pressure of that next win, which was absolutely required for anyone to even think of naming them No. 1 next week.
Given that the WCC is providing no challenge for the Zags this year, the deeper question remains: can they win in the Big Dance? Can they make the Final Four? Anything less, at this point, would be an immense letdown for a program that has been knocking on the door for more than a decade.
There are a couple of ways to answer this question. One is the eyeball test. We can all look at what Gonzaga puts on the floor, think back to prior Final Four participants, and say “do they have what it takes?”
The Zags are lousy with upperclassmen, and those upperclassmen are key contributors. Kelly Olynyk, a junior, has put himself in the conversation alongside Indiana’s Cody Zeller and Duke’s Mason Plumlee when the best big men in the nation are discussed. By his side are seniors Elias Harris and Guy Lanrdy Edi and junior Sam Dower. Even freshman Przemek Karnowski has had his moments, which gives Gonzaga a distinctive size plus depth advantage over most opponents they face. The backcourt is a bit younger, featuring sophomores Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, Jr., but legacy junior David Stockton brings some experience to the table.
That’s a team with experience, size, shooters, quality point guard play and a brilliant coach in Mark Few. The eyeball test plays out in their favor.
Second, we can do the math. Tempo-free statistics were developed in hopes of providing predictive metrics with a little science behind them. Per Kenpom.com, Gonzaga has the nation’s third-best adjusted offense, and 23rd-best adjusted defense. In this context, “adjusted” means strength of schedule has been factored in. Those two numbers – combined, adjusted, folded and spun in a centrifuge – put the Zags at No. 4 in the Kenpom rankings, behind Florida, Indiana and Louisville. In fact, Gonzaga is sort of a reverse-Louisville, with the Cards showing the single-digit defensive ranking and double-digits in offense.
So, math also makes them one of the top four teams in America.
Finally, there’s always superstition. Look at Gonzaga’s two losses: When Illinois beat the Bulldogs on December 8, they were ranked No. 13 in the nation. When Gonzaga went into Indianapolis and lost a thriller in Hinkle Fieldhouse, Butler was ranked No. 13. C’mon. Everyone knows that’s the unluckiest number there is. As long as they don’t face a 13-seed in the NCAAs, they should be golden.
The Zags are built to win in March, and well-led. They’ve had similar teams in the past, and never made the ultimate leap, being surpassed by latter-day mid-major heroes like George Mason, VCU and, yes, Butler. This is the year they must make good on that promise, because the opportunities will grow thinner in the future. With St. Mary’s recently slapped with a four-year probation, the WCC as a whole is about to take a serious credibility hit, giving each league opponent two less chances to earn an RPI-enhancing win in the regular season. That places even more pressure on NCAA hopefuls from the conference to schedule tough out-of-conference teams, which generally means lots of long-distance road trips – assuming anyone wants to take them up on it.
So, overall, it looks like the Gonzaga Bulldogs will be No. 1 come Monday, and that they’ll do what must be done to retain that spot. Whether they finally make the Final Four or hoist a title trophy is another question entirely. Right now, Gonzaga has the perfect storm brewing. An opportunity this great may never come again.
Eric Angevine is editor of Storming the Floor. He tweets @stfhoops.
Apr 16, 2014, 10:59 PM EDT
Caris LeVert reiterated his decision to return to Michigan for his junior year at the team’s postseason banquet Wednesday.
Apr 16, 2014, 8:57 PM EDT
According to a report, New Mexico State center Sim Bhullar will forego his final two seasons of eligibility to turn pro.
Apr 16, 2014, 8:24 PM EDT
After leading USC in scoring last season, Byron Wesley announced that he’ll be transferring after graduating this summer.
Apr 16, 2014, 7:25 PM EDT
Arizona State’s Jahii Carson made official the news that’s been known since October: he’ll be entering the 2014 NBA Draft.
Apr 16, 2014, 6:32 PM EDT
Former Northwestern guard/forward Kale Abrahamson will finish out his career in his home state.
Apr 16, 2014, 5:31 PM EDT
UCLA’s Kyle Anderson and Zach LaVine made official their decisions to enter the 2014 NBA Draft.
Apr 16, 2014, 4:40 PM EDT
After considering leaving school to enter the NBA Draft, Purdue’s A.J. Hammons will return for his junior season.
Apr 16, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Three years after shortening the time players have to make a decision regarding the NBA, it’s time for the NCAA to re-adopt the NBA’s pre-draft calendar.
Apr 16, 2014, 3:07 PM EDT
The Arizona State transfer is headed to Rice.
Apr 16, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
The Dukes have landed the for Massachusetts Player of the Year.
Apr 16, 2014, 1:45 PM EDT
There may not be a recruit with a more interesting back story that Devonta Pollard.
Apr 16, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
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Apr 16, 2014, 12:15 PM EDT
Getting Kansas State to the NCAA tournament earned Bruce Weber an extension.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:49 AM EDT
Jim Christian wins his first recruiting battle as the head coach at BC.
Apr 16, 2014, 11:26 AM EDT
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Apr 16, 2014, 10:20 AM EDT
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Apr 15, 2014, 10:13 PM EDT
The Mustangs and Bulldogs are looking to meet in a home-and-home series.
Apr 15, 2014, 9:36 PM EDT
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Apr 15, 2014, 8:44 PM EDT
Austin will leave Waco after two seasons.
Apr 15, 2014, 7:34 PM EDT
He will have two years of eligibility remaining.
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