Mar 2, 2013, 7:04 PM EDT
Following No. 1 Indiana’s loss to Minnesota on Tuesday, and Virginia’s big upset of No. 3 Duke, No. 2 Gonzaga appears poised to seize the school’s first No. 1 ranking ever. The questions began to circulate immediately: Do they belong on top? Can they handle the pressure?
The first step in quieting the naysayers happened today: Gonzaga pounded Portland 81-52. It’s not a particularly impressive win in context of the weakness of the West Coast Conference this season, but it’s mega-impressive in the larger context of the top five this season. Indiana is the latest No. 1 team to suffer a surprising loss, but hardly the first. So, we’ll not scoff at the Bulldogs for handling the pressure of that next win, which was absolutely required for anyone to even think of naming them No. 1 next week.
Given that the WCC is providing no challenge for the Zags this year, the deeper question remains: can they win in the Big Dance? Can they make the Final Four? Anything less, at this point, would be an immense letdown for a program that has been knocking on the door for more than a decade.
There are a couple of ways to answer this question. One is the eyeball test. We can all look at what Gonzaga puts on the floor, think back to prior Final Four participants, and say “do they have what it takes?”
The Zags are lousy with upperclassmen, and those upperclassmen are key contributors. Kelly Olynyk, a junior, has put himself in the conversation alongside Indiana’s Cody Zeller and Duke’s Mason Plumlee when the best big men in the nation are discussed. By his side are seniors Elias Harris and Guy Lanrdy Edi and junior Sam Dower. Even freshman Przemek Karnowski has had his moments, which gives Gonzaga a distinctive size plus depth advantage over most opponents they face. The backcourt is a bit younger, featuring sophomores Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, Jr., but legacy junior David Stockton brings some experience to the table.
That’s a team with experience, size, shooters, quality point guard play and a brilliant coach in Mark Few. The eyeball test plays out in their favor.
Second, we can do the math. Tempo-free statistics were developed in hopes of providing predictive metrics with a little science behind them. Per Kenpom.com, Gonzaga has the nation’s third-best adjusted offense, and 23rd-best adjusted defense. In this context, “adjusted” means strength of schedule has been factored in. Those two numbers – combined, adjusted, folded and spun in a centrifuge – put the Zags at No. 4 in the Kenpom rankings, behind Florida, Indiana and Louisville. In fact, Gonzaga is sort of a reverse-Louisville, with the Cards showing the single-digit defensive ranking and double-digits in offense.
So, math also makes them one of the top four teams in America.
Finally, there’s always superstition. Look at Gonzaga’s two losses: When Illinois beat the Bulldogs on December 8, they were ranked No. 13 in the nation. When Gonzaga went into Indianapolis and lost a thriller in Hinkle Fieldhouse, Butler was ranked No. 13. C’mon. Everyone knows that’s the unluckiest number there is. As long as they don’t face a 13-seed in the NCAAs, they should be golden.
The Zags are built to win in March, and well-led. They’ve had similar teams in the past, and never made the ultimate leap, being surpassed by latter-day mid-major heroes like George Mason, VCU and, yes, Butler. This is the year they must make good on that promise, because the opportunities will grow thinner in the future. With St. Mary’s recently slapped with a four-year probation, the WCC as a whole is about to take a serious credibility hit, giving each league opponent two less chances to earn an RPI-enhancing win in the regular season. That places even more pressure on NCAA hopefuls from the conference to schedule tough out-of-conference teams, which generally means lots of long-distance road trips – assuming anyone wants to take them up on it.
So, overall, it looks like the Gonzaga Bulldogs will be No. 1 come Monday, and that they’ll do what must be done to retain that spot. Whether they finally make the Final Four or hoist a title trophy is another question entirely. Right now, Gonzaga has the perfect storm brewing. An opportunity this great may never come again.
Eric Angevine is editor of Storming the Floor. He tweets @stfhoops.
Apr 24, 2014, 12:57 AM EDT
According to multiple reports, former Georgetown big Moses Ayegba has decided to transfer to Nebraska.
Apr 24, 2014, 12:17 AM EDT
According to a report, UConn center Amida Brimah will need to undergo surgery on his left shoulder.
Apr 23, 2014, 10:38 PM EDT
Shaka Smart filled a vacancy on his staff Wednesday, hiring former Vanderbilt assistant David Cason.
Apr 23, 2014, 9:04 PM EDT
Less than a week after making an official visit to the school, it was reported that Malek Harris had committed to Kansas State. But that may not be the case.
Apr 23, 2014, 7:49 PM EDT
Frank Haith announced his coaching staff Wednesday, with the trio combining to have more than 90 seasons of coaching experience.
Apr 23, 2014, 6:33 PM EDT
UConn and Duke will reportedly play each other just before Christmas in New Jersey.
Apr 23, 2014, 5:23 PM EDT
Former St. John’s commit Darrick Wood verbally committed to attend DePaul on Wednesday.
Apr 23, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT
After playing well in Kentucky’s run to the national title game, Dakari Johnson has decided to return for his sophomore season.
Apr 23, 2014, 3:52 PM EDT
LSU should have the pieces to be a tournament team in 2014-2015.
Apr 23, 2014, 2:54 PM EDT
Minnesota landed a commitment from a 6-foot-11 three-star recruit.
Apr 23, 2014, 2:28 PM EDT
Adala Moto was a top 150 recruit in the class of 2012.
Apr 23, 2014, 1:58 PM EDT
Allen will be one of the keys to Arizona’s season. Click to see why.
Apr 23, 2014, 12:34 PM EDT
Randle talks favorite NBA players and the one-and-done rule.
Apr 23, 2014, 11:49 AM EDT
Kentucky got some good news on Wednesday afternoon.
Apr 23, 2014, 10:32 AM EDT
He will be eligible immediately.
Apr 23, 2014, 10:03 AM EDT
Not a bad pitch from the UConn star.
Apr 22, 2014, 11:08 PM EDT
The UTEP coach is now a candidate to replace Frank Haith at Missouri.
Apr 22, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT
Virginia got its fourth commit on Tuesday night.
Apr 22, 2014, 9:09 PM EDT
A look back on UConn’s second title in four years.
Apr 22, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT
The Southern coach is receiving a contract extension.
- Auburn will not appeal Bruce Pearl’s show-cause penalty 3
- Kentucky freshman Julius Randle entering NBA Draft 0
- ACC’s league schedule highlights the flaws of massive power conferences 4
- Report: Tennessee hires Southern Miss coach Donnie Tyndall 1
- Rice transfer Sean Obi commits to Duke 1
- Adam Silver says raising NBA’s age limit a top priority 7
- NCAA council aims to change immediate eligibility waiver policy 0
- #UMassUnited: Thousands show to support Derrick Gordon during Westboro Baptist Church protest (18)
- Reports: Missouri’s Frank Haith agrees to take the Tulsa job (11)
- Jabari Parker is headed to the NBA (9)
- Adam Silver says raising NBA’s age limit a top priority (7)
- Former Marquette commits Ahmed Hill, Satchel Pierce follow Buzz Williams to Virginia Tech (7)