Skip to content

Latest NCAA tourney projections: Duke’s a 1, but who else?

Mar 4, 2013, 10:37 PM EDT

Miami v Duke Getty Images

After another wild weekend of college hoops, one thing is certain.  We can expect the unexpected.  Which should make for an incredible month of March.

Take the top seed line.  Indiana remains in control of its current No. 1 seed position.  The other three spots still have some wiggle room – although based on Ryan Kelly’s return performance Saturday against Miami-FL, the Duke Blue Devils appear headed for yet another top seed on Selection Sunday.  In this update, Gonzaga and Kansas grab the other two No. 1 slots.  Miami, Georgetown, Louisville, New Mexico, Michigan State, and Michigan are close behind.  Remember, there are only four spots on each seed line.  Someone has to be number nine or ten on the seed list (s-curve).  And the order could easily change.  Throughout the bracket, these final two weeks will help decide the starting position for several teams.

The bottom of the bracket is no less uncertain.  This past Saturday, six teams sitting directly on the bubble lost.  So in some ways, not a lot changed.  The newest addition to the bracket is Boise State.  After beating Colorado State, the Broncos resume is tournament worthy with two games to play.  As a side note, Boise is a true 11 seed in the bracket but had to be placed on the 12 line because of various conflicts and bracketing principles.  It’s not uncommon for this to happen.  Many of the teams in the middle of the bracket are tightly bunched and while one or two seed lines may appear to be a big difference, that’s not necessarily true.

The final couple of at-large spots in the Field of 68 could be argued for hours.  That’s why this week’s games and those in conference tournament play may prove more important than ever.  For now, the final at-large spots belong to Iowa State, Villanova, Virginia, and Tennessee.  Those four are paired in the First Four – with winners headed to matchups in the East and West Regions. Kentucky, Baylor, Alabama, Massachusetts, and Arkansas are among the first teams outside the bracket.

Note: The bracket update does not include the Baylor-Texas game on Monday evening.  That game will be factored into our next update. Enjoy the ride to Selection Sunday.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Villanova vs. Tennessee | East Region
  • Iowa State vs. Virginia | West Region
  • NORFOLK STATE vs. SOUTHERN | South Region
  • CHARLESTON SO vs. NORTHEASTERN | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTWashington, DC                         MIDWESTIndianapolis
Philadelphia Dayton
1) Duke 1) INDIANA
16) MERCER 16) CHARLESTON-SO / NORTHEASTERN
8) Butler 8) NC State
9) MEMPHIS 9) Missouri
Dayton San Jose
5) Ohio State 5) Arizona
12) Villanova / Tennessee 12) AKRON
4) Oklahoma State 4) Syracuse
13) BELMONT 13) DAVIDSON
Auburn Hills Kansas City
6) OREGON 6) UNLV
11) Temple 11) Saint Mary’s
3) Michigan State 3) Kansas State
14) VALPARAISO 14) SF AUSTIN
Lexington Philadelphia
7) Colorado State 7) Minnesota
10) Oklahoma 10) Wichita State
2) Louisville 2) GEORGETOWN
15) NIAGARA 15) PRINCETON
SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles
Kansas City Salt Lake
1) KANSAS 1) GONZAGA
16) NORFOLK ST / SOUTHERN 16) LONG BEACH
8) San Diego State 8) North Carolina
9) Cincinnati 9) CREIGHTON
Salt Lake San Jose
5) SAINT LOUIS 5) UCLA
12) MID TENNESSEE ST 12) Boise State
4) Wisconsin 4) Marquette
13) LOUISIANA TECH 13) BUCKNELL
Austin Auburn Hills
6) Notre Dame 6) Pittsburgh
11) La Salle 11) Iowa State / Virginia
3) FLORIDA 3) Michigan
14) MONTANA 14) STONY BROOK
Lexington Austin
7) Illinois 7) VCU
10) Colorado 10) California
2) MIAMI-FL 2) NEW MEXICO
15) SOUTH DAKOTA ST 15) ROBERT MORRIS

NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Duke, Gonzaga, and Kansas. Next in line are Miami-FL, New Mexico, Georgetown, Louisville.

Last Five teams in (at large): Boise State, Iowa State, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee

First Five teams out (at large): Kentucky, Baylor, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arkansas

Next Five teams out (at large): Maryland, Mississippi, Iowa, Southern Miss, Arizona State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Mountain West (5): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon, California

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis

ACC (5): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL, Virginia

SEC (3): Missouri, Florida, Tennessee

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … BELMONT (Ohio Valley), BUCKNELL (Patriot), MIDDLE TENNESSE ST (Sunbelt), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(Summit), VALPARAISO (Horizon), DAVIDSON (Southern), LOUISIANA TECH (WAC), NIAGARA (MAAC), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland), AKRON (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), PRINCETON (IVY), LONG BEACH (Big West), NORTHEASTERN (Colonial), STONY BROOK (American East), MONTANA (Big Sky), NORFOLK STATE (MEAC), CHARLESTON-SOUTHERN (Big South), ROBERT MORRIS (NEC), SOUTHERN (SWAC)

Latest Posts
  1. Report: SMU’s Larry Brown up against ‘lack of coach control’ charge

    Jul 29, 2015, 11:40 PM EDT

    Larry Brown AP

    According to the report SMU met with the NCAA Committee on Infractions last month.

  2. BYU lands third 2016 commitment in 6-foot-6 guard/forward

    Jul 29, 2015, 10:35 PM EDT

    Connor Harding, Zach Hillman AP

    Harding won’t join the program until 2018 however, as he’ll be taking his two-year LDS mission beforehand.

  3. Marquette coaches discuss daily ‘noon ball’ tradition (VIDEO)

    Jul 29, 2015, 8:50 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Director of player personnel Travis Diener is pegged as the best player in the games, with he and assistant Chris Carrawell trading some good-natured shots at each other.

  4. ACL tear sidelines San Diego State guard Matt Shrigley

    Jul 29, 2015, 8:17 PM EDT

    Matt Shrigley, Grayson Allen AP

    Only Aqeel Quinn, who’s out of eligibility, made more three-pointers for the Aztecs last season than Shrigley.

  5. Four-star power forward names his top three schools

    Jul 29, 2015, 6:42 PM EDT

    Kelly Kline/adidas Kelly Kline/adidas

    All three programs made Davis a focal point in Las Vegas last weekend.

  6. Las Vegas Leftovers: Some notes that didn’t make the recaps

    Jul 29, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT

    Kelly Kline/adidas Kelly Kline/adidas

    Notes on Vance Jackson, Brendan Bailey and Javonte Smart included.

  7. Isaiah Zierdan one-ups Roosevelt Jones’ trick shot (VIDEO)

    Jul 29, 2015, 3:17 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    I’m OK with this becoming a thing all August.

  8. Another Division I coach loses their job in the wake of the Donnie Tyndall scandal

    Jul 29, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT

    Southeastern Louisiana Southeastern Louisiana

    Tyson Waterman is the latest victim in the fallout from the Southern Miss scandal.

  9. Is Jamal Murray considering skipping classes to play for Team Canada?

    Jul 29, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT

    150521calipari Getty Images

    That’s now two of Kentucky’s elite freshmen with concerns looming.

  10. Bruce Pearl on his time at Tennessee: ‘I ran a clean program’

    Jul 29, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT

    150729 brucepearl Getty Images

    Bruce Pearl was fired by Tennessee for lying about a barbecue.

  11. Five-star 2017 center cuts list … to 13?

    Jul 29, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT

    4_3726139

    See which schools are still in play for one of the top rising juniors

  12. CAA Rookie of the Year transfers to BYU

    Jul 28, 2015, 10:04 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Elijah Bryant will have three years of eligibility remaining.

  13. Arkansas forward Jacorey Williams linked to pair of alleged assaults

    Jul 28, 2015, 8:43 PM EDT

    AP AP

    The Arkansas forward was charged with one count of forgery last week.

  14. Texas Tech commit to attend junior college

    Jul 28, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT

    Kelly Kline/adidas Kelly Kline/adidas

    The three-star forward failed to qualify earlier this month.

  15. Arizona State receives commitment from three-star center Jethro Tshisumpa

    Jul 28, 2015, 6:21 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Bobby Hurley off to a good start in his new gig in Tempe.

  16. John Calipari says 2016 “could be best class ever”

    Jul 28, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Tai Wynyard of New Zealand is the only commit currently in Kentucky’s Class of 2016.

  17. Michigan lands commitment from 2016 guard Ibi Watson

    Jul 28, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    John Beilein gets his third commitment for 2016.

  18. Another mixtape for July’s biggest stock-riser, Wenyen Gabriel (VIDEO)

    Jul 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT

    Screen Shot 2015-07-27 at 2.15.47 PM

    If you can do things like this, you can play for Duke or Kentucky.