Mar 11, 2013, 11:47 PM EDT
It’s going to be a long, long week in Moraga, CA.
After losing to No. 1 Gonzaga 65-51 in the WCC title game on Monday, the Gaels are officially a bubble team, missing out on a chance to win the league’s automatic bid and ensure themselves a trip to the Big Dance.
And the problem?
St. Mary’s looks like they are headed for the wrong side of the bubble.
The Gaels are now 27-6 on the season, but their profile is entirely built around a win over Creighton, who currently sits at 25th in the RPI. Beyond that? St. Mary’s has a pair of wins over BYU and … a win over Harvard at home … umm … and 22 wins over teams ranked outside the RPI’s top 100.
Now, the Gaels are 19-3 since Christmas. Those three losses all came to the No. 1 team in the country, Gonzaga. That’s not bad, but the problem is that by going 0-3 against the Zags, St. Mary’s missed out on their only three chances to land another marquee win. They needed one. Their non-conference schedule is ranked 121st nationally, and they have two sub-100 losses (Pacific and Georgia Tech) and a loss at Northern Iowa.
Oh, and it looks like they may have just lost one of their starters, Jorden Page, to a knee injury.
Is that a strong enough to earn an at-large bid?
Well, let’s compare them to other bubble teams. Tennessee has four top 50 wins — including Florida — and nine top 100 wins. Kentucky has seven top 100 wins and has beaten Missouri and Florida since Nerlens Noel went down. Say what you will about those two teams, it’s tough to find a way to argue that St. Mary’s has a stronger profile.
And all the rest of those high-major bubble teams will have more chances to build on their resume.
I want the Gaels in the tournament just like I want Middle Tennessee State to go dancing. But just because a good mid-major team is ‘good’ doesn’t mean that the committee is going to cut them a break.
It’s all about the profile. The Gaels simply may not have enough on it.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:55 PM EDT
Tom Izzo does it again. Add it to the long line of amazing midnight madness entrances.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:24 PM EDT
Chris Mack and his daughters performed ‘Paul Revere’ at Musketeer Madness on Friday night.
Oct 24, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT
The Wisconsin forward is likely to miss a week or two
Oct 24, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Ed Cooley adds a 6-foot-8 forward to the Friars’ front court.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT
The former Virginia Tech Hokie will be a big boost to SMU’s perimeter.
Oct 24, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
Manhattan and head coach Steve Masiello had some issues to address this spring, but thanks in part to their departed senior class the Jaspers are well-positioned to once again contend in the MAAC.
Oct 24, 2014, 5:05 PM EDT
One of the nation’s highly-touted bigs is closer to making a decision after eliminating two programs from his list.
Oct 24, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT
Jones became the second coach to lead LSU to postseason appearances in his first two years this past spring.
Oct 24, 2014, 1:52 PM EDT
Kellogg’s led his alma mater to 21 wins or more in each of the last three seasons.
Oct 24, 2014, 12:39 PM EDT
Georgetown holds a 35-29 lead in their all-time series with UConn.
Oct 24, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Villanova went 29-5 last season and return essentially the same lineup. Why aren’t more people talking about them?
Oct 24, 2014, 12:13 PM EDT
Texas now has two four-star commitments, with Kerwin Roach joining Eric Davis on Friday.
Oct 24, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
Of Baylor’s five verbal commitments in the Class of 2015 four are guards, including their latest commit.
Oct 24, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Kentucky’s on top, but who’s next in line?
Oct 24, 2014, 12:06 AM EDT
Syracuse’s men’s basketball and football programs are under investigation, with the stakes being higher for Jim Boeheim’s program.
Oct 23, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Joshua Smith averaged 11.5 points per game before being ruled academically ineligible last season.
Oct 23, 2014, 10:49 PM EDT
Cam Payne became the star of Murray State as a freshman, but he wouldn’t have gotten there if he had a back up. Why?
Oct 23, 2014, 9:53 PM EDT
The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 added a new teammate Thursday.
Oct 23, 2014, 8:03 PM EDT
Shawn Lester averaged 11.9 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in the sixth man role last season.
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