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Bubble Banter: Thursday’s losers

Mar 14, 2013, 3:17 PM EST

Illinois Fighting Illini's Egwu celebrates his team's win over Minnesota Golden Gophers' Hollins during their NCAA men's college basketball game in Chicago, Illinois

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Arizona State: The dream is done for the Sun Devils. Thanks to a weak non-conference slate and a poor finish to the regular season, Herb Sendek’s club needed to win at least two, maybe three games in the Pac-12 tournament to have a real chance at an at-large bid. Well, that didn’t have. Arizona State blew a 15 point second half lead and lost to UCLA in the quarterfinals. They will be must-see TV in the NIT.

Xavier: The Musketeers were in a similar position to Xavier: win two or three games in the Atlantic 10 tournament, hope for all the bubble teams to lose, and spend Selection Sunday praying. It didn’t work, as the Musketeers lost a thriller to St. Joe’s and punched their ticket to the NIT.

Minnesota: The Gophers are probably going to be fine. In fact, I would be quite surprised if the Selection Committee made the decision to leave the Gophers out of the NCAA tournament. They may not be playing well right now (they are 5-11 since starting the year 15-1) but they have a very, very good profile when compared to the dreck on the rest of the bubble. But you never know until your name is called, and thanks to yet another ugly February and a first round loss in the Big Ten tournament, the Gophers probably won’t be sleeping easy this week.

Villanova: The Wildcats got smacked around by Louisville on Thursday night, meaning that Jay Wright’s ballclub is going to have to spend Selection Sunday anxiously waiting to hear their name called. The good news? Thanks to wins over the top four teams in the Big East, Villanova should be expecting to hear their name called. Wednesday’s game against St. John’s was the outcome they needed.

Oklahoma: The Sooners are probably going to be just fine, as they have three top 50 wins — including Kansas — and nine top 100 wins to go along with an RPI in the low-30s. But if there are some surprise runs in the conference tournaments, bids might start getting gobbled up. Losing to Iowa State leaves them at risk, even if that risk is relatively minimal.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats should be OK. They have five top 50 wins and nine top 100 wins without a sub-100 loss this season. But their RPI isn’t all that great thanks to a weak non-conference schedule. Beating Providence was the key, losing to Georgetown shouldn’t hurt them too much.

Colorado: Losing to Arizona won’t hurt the Buffaloes all that much, and given the work they have done this season, they should feel pretty comfortable heading into Selection Sunday. The win over Oregon State yesterday was the big game for them.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks needed to win a couple of games in the SEC tournament if they wanted a chance at an at-large bid, as they’ve proven completely incapable of winning away from Bud Walton Arena. They did it again on Thursday night, losing to Vanderbilt for the second time this season.

Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs are done. They lost in the first round of the WAC tournament tonight to a UTSA team that went 3-14 in WAC play.

Cal: The Bears should be in on Selection Sunday, but they probably aren’t going to be as comfortable as they will be made out to be. Cal has three top 50 wins, including a win at Arizona, and three more wins against 51-100, including roadies against Denver and Oregon. If anything is hurting Cal’s profile right now, it’s that Oregon has fallen to 54th in the RPI. That used to be a really good win for them.

Baylor: The Bears are done. They needed to beat Oklahoma State tonight and then pick off Kansas State tomorrow to have a real chance. They lost.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

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