Skip to content

This crop of 16-seeds won’t be the one that beats a 1-seed

Mar 14, 2013, 8:00 PM EDT

NEC Mount St Marys LIU Brooklyn AP

We’re all waiting for it. That magical day that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. To this point, it’s never happened.

In fact, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the 16s and 0-112 against the 1s.

There have been close calls. Murray State falling by four to Michigan State in 1990. Princeton and East Tennessee State coming within a basket of Georgetown and Oklahoma in 1989. Western Carolina falling to Purdue by two in 1996. But we just can’t get the ultimate underdog to come through with that final possession that ends the favorites run way early and sends tons of brackets to the trash can.

Well, don’t expect it to happen this year, either. Because quite frankly, this crop of 16 seeds will be awful.

Don’t believe me? Jeff Eisenberg at Yahoo! Sports agrees.

Looking at the bracket that we at CBTonNBC have now, it’s clear that the top of the bottom seeds won’t stack up — this excludes a few teams that are already out of the running, such as Norfolk State in the MEAC.

None of the possible 16 seeds are even in the Top 100. That tells the masses that there’s not a ton of talented teams on the lower end of the conference this season. Not that any of this matter to the teams that won their conference tournaments to get to this point. They deserve to celebrate. They earned it. Just don’t be prepared for any of them to celebrate anymore wins after the First Four.

Liberty (287 in the RPI) at 15-20 is sure to be a 16 and start in Dayton. Historically, the winner of the SWAC Tournament, which does feature a 20-win team in Southern, takes up a 16 seed, based on their poor RPI. The Jaguars sit at 188 now, the best of the eligible SWAC teams (Texas Southern is at 183, but is ineligible for postseason play due to poor APR scores.)

There are various reasons these teams can’t match up. Western Kentucky (166 RPI) lacks the true post depth. LIU-Brooklyn’s (184) guards can’t guard any from a 1-seed. Other possible 1-seed candidates, such as James Madison or the winner of the America East Conference title game between Vermont (123) and Albany (147), just flat-out doesn’t have the talent. But that could be seen as the reason for any 16 that loses to a one.

It’s a novel thought, and eventually it will happen. The selection committee with undervalue a Top 100 mid-major program with a possible future NBA All-Star on the roster, and they’ll fall into a match-up with an overrated 1-seed that’s backed into the tournament, not playing their best basketball. Just not this year.

Follow David Harten on Twitter at @David_Harten

Latest Posts
  1. UNLV awaiting two important personnel decisions in its front court

    Apr 18, 2015, 10:27 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Wood returning would ensure that this young but talented front line wouldn’t lack for experience.

  2. Missouri receives commitments from two John A. Logan College players

    Apr 18, 2015, 8:56 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Missouri is hopeful that these two junior college products can help them rebound from a tough 2014-15.

  3. Vermont signee injured in car crash speaks first words in more than ten weeks

    Apr 18, 2015, 7:44 PM EDT

    Vermont Athletics Vermont Athletics

    Josh Speidel hadn’t spoken since the crash February 1. His first word: “Mom.”

  4. Three-star forward Rapolas Ivanauskas becomes Northwestern’s first 2016 commitment

    Apr 18, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Chris Collins and his staff have done a good job of recruiting local talent, and they reeled in another player Saturday.

  5. 2016 New Mexico commit Mitch Lightfoot decides to reopen recruitment

    Apr 18, 2015, 5:25 PM EDT

    Craig Neal Craig Neal

    Lightfoot was on the receiving end of offers from Arizona State and Utah before committing to UNM, and the new staff at ASU has already reached out to him.

  6. Former Cornell forward Shonn Miller headed to UConn for final season of eligibility

    Apr 18, 2015, 4:39 PM EDT

    cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznpte4mwi1zmrlntq4ndc4yjfiywyzztq3zgnhzgfhmgu0 AP

    Miller averaged 16.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game last season, and he’s an important addition for the UConn front court.

  7. Five members of Iowa State’s 2014-15 team have been arrested after two more arrests this week

    Apr 18, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT

    Dustin Hogue AP

    More arrests at Iowa State as two more members of the 2014-15 roster were charged within the last week.

  8. Boise State star granted fifth year of eligibility

    Apr 18, 2015, 3:15 PM EDT

    Anthony Drmic AP

    Boise State received some encouraging news this week as Anthony Drmic is returning for another season.

  9. Purdue center A.J. Hammons to return for senior season

    Apr 18, 2015, 2:36 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Hammons’ decision to return makes the Boilermakers a Top 25 team.

  10. Rutgers head coach Eddie Jordan will earn his degree this spring

    Apr 18, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT

    Eddie Jordan AP

    Rutgers head coach Eddie Jordan has been taking classes at the school in order to complete his degree.

  11. Storylines from the Jordan Brand Classic: Diallo claims another MVP; Briscoe wins over crowd

    Apr 18, 2015, 1:15 PM EDT

    2015 Jordan Brand Classic Getty Images

    A look at the top storylines from the 14th annual Jordan Brand Classic.

  12. Illinois lands commitment from Charlotte graduate transfer big man Mike Thorne Jr.

    Apr 18, 2015, 11:58 AM EDT

    Kacinas Thorne AP

    Illinois landed a huge graduate transfer on Saturday.

  13. Report: Coppin State graduate transfer Sterling Smith will visit four programs

    Apr 18, 2015, 10:45 AM EDT

    Sterling Brown, Rashad Smith AP

    Coppin State junior guard Sterling Smith is looking like a prime graduate transfer.

  14. Five-star Kentucky commit believes the NCAA will clear him to play

    Apr 18, 2015, 9:35 AM EDT

    Kelly Kline/Under Armour Kelly Kline/Under Armour

    Kentucky five-star big man Skal Labissiere believes that the NCAA will allow him to play this season.

  15. West defeats East 118-116 in the Jordan Brand Classic

    Apr 17, 2015, 10:23 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Cheick Diallo won named MVP for both the McDonald’s All-American Game and Jordan Brand Classic.

  16. Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg undergoes successful open heart surgery

    Apr 17, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Hoiberg just completed his fifth season at Iowa State.

  17. Gonzaga big man to return for senior season

    Apr 17, 2015, 7:18 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Domantas Sabonis previously announced he would return.

  18. Top plays from the Jordan Brand Classic practice

    Apr 17, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT

    diallo

    The Jordan Brand Classic is Friday night at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

  19. Duke among list of candidates for graduate transfer guard

    Apr 17, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    The former Villanova guard cut his list to eight.