Skip to content

This crop of 16-seeds won’t be the one that beats a 1-seed

Mar 14, 2013, 8:00 PM EST

NEC Mount St Marys LIU Brooklyn AP

We’re all waiting for it. That magical day that a 16 seed beats a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. To this point, it’s never happened.

In fact, since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the 16s and 0-112 against the 1s.

There have been close calls. Murray State falling by four to Michigan State in 1990. Princeton and East Tennessee State coming within a basket of Georgetown and Oklahoma in 1989. Western Carolina falling to Purdue by two in 1996. But we just can’t get the ultimate underdog to come through with that final possession that ends the favorites run way early and sends tons of brackets to the trash can.

Well, don’t expect it to happen this year, either. Because quite frankly, this crop of 16 seeds will be awful.

Don’t believe me? Jeff Eisenberg at Yahoo! Sports agrees.

Looking at the bracket that we at CBTonNBC have now, it’s clear that the top of the bottom seeds won’t stack up — this excludes a few teams that are already out of the running, such as Norfolk State in the MEAC.

None of the possible 16 seeds are even in the Top 100. That tells the masses that there’s not a ton of talented teams on the lower end of the conference this season. Not that any of this matter to the teams that won their conference tournaments to get to this point. They deserve to celebrate. They earned it. Just don’t be prepared for any of them to celebrate anymore wins after the First Four.

Liberty (287 in the RPI) at 15-20 is sure to be a 16 and start in Dayton. Historically, the winner of the SWAC Tournament, which does feature a 20-win team in Southern, takes up a 16 seed, based on their poor RPI. The Jaguars sit at 188 now, the best of the eligible SWAC teams (Texas Southern is at 183, but is ineligible for postseason play due to poor APR scores.)

There are various reasons these teams can’t match up. Western Kentucky (166 RPI) lacks the true post depth. LIU-Brooklyn’s (184) guards can’t guard any from a 1-seed. Other possible 1-seed candidates, such as James Madison or the winner of the America East Conference title game between Vermont (123) and Albany (147), just flat-out doesn’t have the talent. But that could be seen as the reason for any 16 that loses to a one.

It’s a novel thought, and eventually it will happen. The selection committee with undervalue a Top 100 mid-major program with a possible future NBA All-Star on the roster, and they’ll fall into a match-up with an overrated 1-seed that’s backed into the tournament, not playing their best basketball. Just not this year.

Follow David Harten on Twitter at @David_Harten

Latest Posts
  1. Pregame Shootaround: Three great games on TV tonight

    Mar 2, 2015, 3:30 PM EST

    Buddy Hield AP

    The Big 12 and the ACC will both be in action.

  2. Atlantic Sun Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 2, 2015, 2:30 PM EST

    (Getty Images) Getty Images

    The Atlantic Sun Tournament should be an exciting one as Florida Gulf Coast attempts to dethrone regular season champ North Florida.

  3. Mike Krzyzewski refuses comment on Rasheed Sulaimon sexual assault allegations

    Mar 2, 2015, 12:45 PM EST

    Duke v Louisville Getty Images

    Sulaimon was dismissed from the team in January of this year.

  4. Report: Memphis star expected to miss remainder of season

    Mar 2, 2015, 12:25 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Austin Nichols was the bright spot for the Tigers this season.

  5. Horizon League Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards

    Mar 2, 2015, 11:25 AM EST

    Alec Peters, Valparaiso Getty Images) Alec Peters, Valparaiso Getty Images)

    In addition to the Crusaders and Phoenix, keep an eye on Cleveland State and Oakland.

  6. Bracketology: Villanova takes ahold of the fourth No. 1 seed

    Mar 2, 2015, 9:27 AM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    The latest bracket projections from our Dave Ommen.

  7. Weekly Awards: Sir’Dominic Pointer and Baylor shine in a wild week of hoops

    Mar 2, 2015, 8:30 AM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Baylor picked up two huge wins, while Pointer led the Johnnies into the tournament this week.

  8. College Basketball Talk’s Latest Top 25: How far will Wisconsin and Gonzaga fall?

    Mar 2, 2015, 6:10 AM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Kentucky is still No. 1, but there’s a bit of a shake-up in the rest of the top ten.

  9. Jordan Bell produced a highlight-worthy sequence in Oregon’s win at Stanford (VIDEO)

    Mar 1, 2015, 10:21 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Oregon is 6-0 in games decided by five points or less this season. Bell’s key plays factored into the Ducks getting that sixth win on Sunday.

  10. Late Night Snacks: No. 5 Wisconsin wraps up share of Big Ten title while Pitt, Stanford suffer damaging losses

    Mar 1, 2015, 10:05 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Wisconsin hadn’t won the Big Ten since 2008, although they’ve never finished worse than fourth during Bo Ryan’s tenure in Madison.

  11. Austin Peay head coach Dave Loos to return for 26th season in 2015-16

    Mar 1, 2015, 9:57 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    The Governors have posted four consecutive losing seasons, but their top three scorers are expected back in 2015-16.

  12. Three-star small forward becomes California’s first 2015 verbal commitment

    Mar 1, 2015, 6:29 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Davon Dillard announced his commitment to Cal Sunday afternoon. The Golden Bears hope to reel in the two big men who were also on campus in Ivan Rabb and Caleb Swanigan.

  13. Memphis sophomore forward re-injures right ankle in overtime loss to Tulsa

    Mar 1, 2015, 5:11 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Austin Nichols injured his ankle early in the second half of Memphis’ loss

  14. Northeastern’s Devon Begley avoids mop boy to still score against College of Charleston (VIDEO)

    Mar 1, 2015, 4:30 PM EST

    Coaches Vs. Cancer College Basketball Tripleheader Getty Images

    Northeastern’s Devon Begley had to deal with a unique defender, the mop boy, while scoring off of a steal against College of Charleston.

  15. Another Michigan point guard playing through injury

    Mar 1, 2015, 2:00 PM EST

    (Getty Images) Getty Images

    Michigan point guard Spike Albrecht has been battling a hip injury this season.

  16. Maryland big man will have MRI after missing Michigan game

    Mar 1, 2015, 12:45 PM EST

    Virginia v Maryland Getty Images

    Maryland might miss Michal Cekovsky for some time after the freshman big man was injured during warm-ups on Saturday.