Mar 17, 2013, 7:45 AM EDT
By the time the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee makes it back into the conference room on Sunday morning, the at-large bids will have long-been decided.
That’s always the case, as the committee will have argued their way through — for hours and hours and hours — all of the teams that are sitting on the bubble, coming up with a ranked order. The way things worked out this season, with the final game of the day with any bubble implications wrapping up around 6 p.m. ET, that fact was virtually assured.
They have decided whether or not Ole Miss will get an at-large bid if they don’t beat Florida and get the SEC’s automatic bid on Sunday afternoon. Whether the Rebels lose by 50 or because the referees pulled another Richmond is irrelevant.
In our latest bracket projection, we have Ole Miss as the second-to-last team in the tournament. But where things get interesting are if the committee currently has Ole Miss out of the tournament field with a loss, because that means there needs to be a contingency plan. If Ole Miss wins, they get slotted somewhere. If they lose, they drop out of the field and whoever that last team on the cut line is — Middle Tennessee State, Tennessee, La Salle, whoever — gets their spot.
While the focus of tournament talk during the week almost always seem to focus on the bubble — especially when a team like Kentucky is involved in that conversation — much of Saturday and essentially all of Sunday involves around finalizing the seed list and putting those teams into the bracket.
Who gets the No. 1 seeds? Does, say, Gonzaga really have a stronger profile than New Mexico? Should Louisville or Indiana get the Midwest and the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis? How is it possible that Team X is seeded above Team Y when they both played Team Z and Team X got blown out twice and Team Y beat them? How can five Atlantic 10 teams get slotted into the bracket if three are six or seven seeds and two more are 10 or 11 seeds?
And that doesn’t even take into account the games that are being played today. What if:
- What if Ohio State beats Wisconsin? Can they climb up to the No. 2 seed line?
- What is Wisconsin beats Ohio State? Are they a No. 3 seed?
- Where do North Carolina get bracketed if they beat Miami, which would be their best win of the season?
As the committee builds the bracket throughout Sunday, they build it with these contingencies in mind. And if any of Sunday’s outcomes will significantly change one team’s profile — and remember, the committee’s goal is to minimize just how much value they give to the most recent results — they will build a separate bracket. Committee chair Mike Bobinski told us at the mock selection committee last month that there was one year where the committee had to build six different brackets on Sunday.
So yes, there will be plenty to discuss in that conference room until the brackets are announced at 6 p.m. ET on CBS.
And those discussions and decisions will play a major role in what the bracket you fill out for your office pool will look like.
Those conversations just won’t have all that much to do with the bubble’s cut line.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Apr 20, 2015, 10:45 PM EDT
BYU is losing two reserve players to transfer.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:45 PM EDT
Iowa landed a junior college forward to close out a six-man class.
Apr 20, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT
Iowa State head coach Fred Hoiberg is up and on his feet after heart surgery.
Apr 20, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
North Carolina star point guard Marcus Paige had successful surgery
Apr 20, 2015, 6:45 PM EDT
Shannon Evans is leaving Buffalo. Is athletic director Danny White the reason why?
Apr 20, 2015, 5:45 PM EDT
Rhode Island added some immediate help shooting the ball.
Apr 20, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
Ohio landed an in-state Class of 2016 center.
Apr 20, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
South Florida continues to hit the transfer market hard.
Apr 20, 2015, 3:17 PM EDT
Evan Payne averaged 18.0 points for LMU last season.
Apr 20, 2015, 2:47 PM EDT
Tarrant will step into the starting point guard role for Memphis.
Apr 20, 2015, 2:38 PM EDT
Wiltjer will likely be a preseason all-american.
Apr 20, 2015, 1:58 PM EDT
The younger Greek Freak is hitting the AAU circuit this summer.
Apr 20, 2015, 12:52 PM EDT
This is the leader in the clubhouse for the weirdest offseason story.
Apr 20, 2015, 11:49 AM EDT
Sampson gives LSU one of the best recruiting classes in the country.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:37 AM EDT
Poeltl had a chance to be a first round pick.
Apr 20, 2015, 9:05 AM EDT
Who’s going pro? Who’s returning to school? Who are we still waiting to hear from?
Apr 19, 2015, 11:15 PM EDT
Brandon Ingram’s down to six schools: North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA and NC State.
Apr 19, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Marcus Keene averaged 15.6 ppg last season, and with Chris Fowler entering his senior season this is a good pickup for the Chippewas.
Apr 19, 2015, 9:20 PM EDT
Brandon Sampson will pick LSU, Oklahoma State or St. John’s on Monday, and he’s an important recruit for the Red Storm.
Apr 19, 2015, 8:42 PM EDT
Nathan Davis, who won 78.3 percent of his games as head coach at Randolph Macon, was an assistant at Bucknell from 2003-08.
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- Former Kansas State guard transferring to Creighton 0
- Former Cornell forward Shonn Miller headed to UConn for final season of eligibility 0
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