Mar 17, 2013, 7:45 AM EDT
By the time the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee makes it back into the conference room on Sunday morning, the at-large bids will have long-been decided.
That’s always the case, as the committee will have argued their way through — for hours and hours and hours — all of the teams that are sitting on the bubble, coming up with a ranked order. The way things worked out this season, with the final game of the day with any bubble implications wrapping up around 6 p.m. ET, that fact was virtually assured.
They have decided whether or not Ole Miss will get an at-large bid if they don’t beat Florida and get the SEC’s automatic bid on Sunday afternoon. Whether the Rebels lose by 50 or because the referees pulled another Richmond is irrelevant.
In our latest bracket projection, we have Ole Miss as the second-to-last team in the tournament. But where things get interesting are if the committee currently has Ole Miss out of the tournament field with a loss, because that means there needs to be a contingency plan. If Ole Miss wins, they get slotted somewhere. If they lose, they drop out of the field and whoever that last team on the cut line is — Middle Tennessee State, Tennessee, La Salle, whoever — gets their spot.
While the focus of tournament talk during the week almost always seem to focus on the bubble — especially when a team like Kentucky is involved in that conversation — much of Saturday and essentially all of Sunday involves around finalizing the seed list and putting those teams into the bracket.
Who gets the No. 1 seeds? Does, say, Gonzaga really have a stronger profile than New Mexico? Should Louisville or Indiana get the Midwest and the cozy confines of Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis? How is it possible that Team X is seeded above Team Y when they both played Team Z and Team X got blown out twice and Team Y beat them? How can five Atlantic 10 teams get slotted into the bracket if three are six or seven seeds and two more are 10 or 11 seeds?
And that doesn’t even take into account the games that are being played today. What if:
- What if Ohio State beats Wisconsin? Can they climb up to the No. 2 seed line?
- What is Wisconsin beats Ohio State? Are they a No. 3 seed?
- Where do North Carolina get bracketed if they beat Miami, which would be their best win of the season?
As the committee builds the bracket throughout Sunday, they build it with these contingencies in mind. And if any of Sunday’s outcomes will significantly change one team’s profile — and remember, the committee’s goal is to minimize just how much value they give to the most recent results — they will build a separate bracket. Committee chair Mike Bobinski told us at the mock selection committee last month that there was one year where the committee had to build six different brackets on Sunday.
So yes, there will be plenty to discuss in that conference room until the brackets are announced at 6 p.m. ET on CBS.
And those discussions and decisions will play a major role in what the bracket you fill out for your office pool will look like.
Those conversations just won’t have all that much to do with the bubble’s cut line.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 21, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
The Tigers, who won 25 games last season, landed their first commitment in the Class of 2015 Sunday night.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
With both Pierria Henry and Terrence Williams being seniors, Charlotte needed to add a perimeter player in 2015.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:21 PM EDT
URI head coach Dan Hurley landed his second 2015 commitment Sunday evening.
Sep 21, 2014, 8:25 PM EDT
Danny Manning finally has his first 2015 commitment and the player’s a very important one with regard to the future of the program.
Sep 21, 2014, 7:13 PM EDT
The Vikings have added some depth to their front court for the 2015-16 season.
Sep 21, 2014, 5:14 PM EDT
The Shockers won’t lack for capable leaders this season, and their newcomers have followed the lead of those veterans in the weight room.
Sep 21, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
A good read on Colorado State’s new senior transfer, Antwan Scott, overcoming family obstacles while still succeeding on the court.
Sep 21, 2014, 2:40 PM EDT
Washington State picked up a commitment from a 2015 forward on Sunday.
Sep 21, 2014, 12:50 PM EDT
A former UC Irvine forward could make his NFL debut on Sunday with the Arizona Cardinals.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:43 AM EDT
Wisconsin picked up a 2015 commitment on Sunday morning.
Sep 21, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
LSU is on the board in the 2017 class.
Sep 21, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Five-star 2016 guard Kobi Simmons is electric.
Sep 20, 2014, 11:29 PM EDT
Three Mountain West programs and one Big Ten program among the schools on the Las Vegas native’s list.
Sep 20, 2014, 7:50 PM EDT
The elite PG from New Jersey had his first in-person meeting with Kentucky head coach John Calipari on Thursday.
Sep 20, 2014, 6:18 PM EDT
The South Charleston HS floor general was one of the state’s best players last season, and he could prep for a year before joining the WVU program.
Sep 20, 2014, 5:03 PM EDT
The son of a former national champion has made a name for himself by scoring 28 points per game as a junior.
Sep 20, 2014, 3:35 PM EDT
Mount St. Mary’s rewarded head coach Jamion Christian with an extension.
Sep 20, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Gonzaga has one of its deepest teams of all time and the Bulldogs are challenging themselves with a difficult non-conference schedule.
Sep 20, 2014, 12:45 PM EDT
Bradley forward Auston Barnes has been charged with misdemeanor domestic battery following an August arrest.
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