Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EDT
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
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3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
- (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
- (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
- (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
- (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
Apr 21, 2014, 12:09 AM EDT
In need of some bodies in the front court, Eastern Michigan has reportedly added one in the form of George Mason transfer Anali Okoloji.
Apr 20, 2014, 10:43 PM EDT
Late Sunday Vanderbilt landed its first commitment in the 2015 class, with shooting guard Camron Justice announcing his pledge via Twitter.
Apr 20, 2014, 9:02 PM EDT
USF lost two more players Saturday as guards Javontae Hawkins and Musa Abdul-Aleem decided to transfer.
Apr 20, 2014, 8:03 PM EDT
UConn guard Ryan Boatright is still weighing whether or not to enter the 2014 NBA Draft.
Apr 20, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
The 62nd annual Portsmouth Invitational Tournament wrapped up Saturday night, with former Marquette big man Davante Gardner winning MVP honors.
Apr 20, 2014, 4:50 PM EDT
Houston landed a second junior college transfer Sunday, with Howard College product Eric Weary announcing his decision to commit to the program.
Apr 20, 2014, 4:07 PM EDT
More than three years later, Nick Resavy is still making ridiculous shots.
Apr 20, 2014, 1:51 PM EDT
The electrifying point guard has put his name into the NBA draft.
Apr 20, 2014, 12:51 PM EDT
The Harrison twins are halfway through deciding on returning to Lexington or declaring for the NBA draft.
Apr 20, 2014, 12:02 PM EDT
Garrett becomes the fourth member of the Crimson Tide’s incoming class.
Apr 20, 2014, 11:17 AM EDT
The Cougars landed a former top 100 recruit on Sunday morning.
Apr 20, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
Just over a week after his appeal to be released from his scholarship at Marshall was granted, Kareem Canty’s decided to transfer to Auburn.
Apr 20, 2014, 9:45 AM EDT
Watch the incoming class showcase their talents in Brooklyn on Friday night.
Apr 20, 2014, 12:58 AM EDT
According to a report, Louisiana Tech’s Michael White is the focus of Tennessee’s search for a new head coach.
Apr 19, 2014, 9:17 PM EDT
A Kentucky fan promised to get a tattoo of Willie Cauley-Stein if the 7-footer returned to Lexington for his junior season. Saturday, Michael Gray followed through.
Apr 19, 2014, 7:36 PM EDT
UNLV has added another player to its 2014 recruiting class, as shooting guard Patrick McCaw verbally committed to the Mountain West program.
Apr 19, 2014, 6:24 PM EDT
Arizona State has made another addition to its roster, landing a commitment from former UNLV forward Savon Goodman.
Apr 19, 2014, 5:45 PM EDT
Forward Zach LeDay has decided to leave the USF program after spending two seasons in Tampa.
Apr 19, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
New Florida A&M AD Kellen Winslow Sr. has already decided that the basketball program needs a new leader, as head coach Clemon Johnson was relieved of his duties Friday.
Apr 19, 2014, 4:25 PM EDT
Will highly-touted Colombian center Tonny Trocha-Morelos finally be joining the Texas A&M program?
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- It’s beyond time for college basketball to return to NBA’s early entry calendar 0
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