Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EST
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
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3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
- (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
- (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
- (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
- (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
Nov 23, 2014, 2:00 AM EST
No. 21 Nebraska was the lone ranked team to fall on Saturday, but give them credit for being willing to go on the road to play a dangerous opponent.
Nov 23, 2014, 12:05 AM EST
Devin Davis has been rehabbing from injuries suffered on November 1 in his hometown of Indianapolis.
Nov 22, 2014, 11:33 PM EST
Most people already knew that Winslow’s a high-level athlete. Here’s some evidence for those who somehow didn’t.
Nov 22, 2014, 11:22 PM EST
Before their game against No. 21 Nebraska, Rhode Island took the floor in shirts honoring Avery Harriman.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:44 PM EST
Florida faces Georgetown in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis Wednesday.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:37 PM EST
The score was tied 41-41 with six minutes to go. Rams and Cornhuskers traded the lead five times after that.
Nov 22, 2014, 8:06 PM EST
Wyoming may have scored just 56 points, but all 22 of their made field goals were assisted and they shot nearly 53 percent from the field.
Nov 22, 2014, 6:17 PM EST
Boutte’s shot came seconds after he corralled a wayward pass from teammate Marcellus Barksdale.
Nov 22, 2014, 5:43 PM EST
Eustachy led the Rams to a school-record 26 wins in 2012-13.
Nov 22, 2014, 4:58 PM EST
Meeks accounted for two double-doubles all season in 2013-14. He’s now matched that total through three games.
Nov 22, 2014, 4:46 PM EST
Providence jumped out to a quick 9-0 lead and cruised to an easy win over Florida State.
Nov 22, 2014, 2:30 PM EST
Notre Dame guards Demetrius Jackson and Jerian Grant played well to help lead the Irish to victory.
Nov 22, 2014, 1:40 PM EST
The 2015 CBE Classic will have a local flavor.
Nov 22, 2014, 12:30 PM EST
Ball State will be without a key piece for the immediate future.
Nov 22, 2014, 11:30 AM EST
Florida will be without a key guard for at least a few games.
Nov 22, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
More depth is coming for the Aggies.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:30 AM EST
A solid Saturday slate features multiple ranked teams in action.
Nov 22, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
A tremendous story continues to get better as Lauren Hill surprised teammates and fans by checking into her second college basketball game and scoring again on Friday night.
Nov 22, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
Cornell shouldn’t have given D.J. Newbill a chance.
Nov 21, 2014, 11:55 PM EST
Here is everything you need to know from Friday night hoops.
- Rhode Island upsets No. 21 Nebraska, 66-62, in overtime 0
- Lauren Hill surprises teammates, fans with another layup in her second college game (VIDEO) 2
- The ‘Chaminade Crew’ and how Jonathan Holmes has changed the culture of Texas hoops 0
- Early struggles of Syracuse, Kaleb Joseph example of the downside of early entry 2
- UPDATE: Texas loses starting point guard to left wrist injury, out 4-6 weeks 0
- Burning Questions: Who’s poised to surprise (or disappoint) people in the Big Ten? 2
- Poll: 54 percent of people think Kentucky beats the 76ers, 54 percent of people are dumb 31
- Poll: 54 percent of people think Kentucky beats the 76ers, 54 percent of people are dumb (31)
- No. 1 Kentucky’s size, depth overwhelms No. 5 Kansas, makes 40-0 seem possible? (5)
- No. 1 Kentucky survives Buffalo despite ugly effort offensively (4)
- Pregame Shootaround: No. 14 Iowa State needs to be on upset alert tonight (3)
- Miami upsets No. 8 Florida thanks to the Angel Rodriguez takeover (3)