Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EDT
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)
3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
- (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
- (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
- (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
- (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
Jul 28, 2014, 11:30 PM EDT
Richard Pitino likes that he can feed his players now.
Jul 28, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
Wisconsin got some pretty cool rings for making the Final Four.
Jul 28, 2014, 8:45 PM EDT
After tearing his ACL less than a year ago, Harry Giles looks healthy and prepared to battle for No. 1 in the Class of 2016.
Jul 28, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Northwestern head coach Chris Collins will be working with pros this summer.
Jul 28, 2014, 5:45 PM EDT
Seven thoughts are a weekend at AAU Nationals and Super Showcase in Louisville.
Jul 28, 2014, 3:36 PM EDT
Haley is the first member of Washington’s 2016 recruiting class.
Jul 28, 2014, 2:59 PM EDT
Our Raphielle Johnson spent five days at the tournaments out in Vegas last week. Here are his thoughts on them.
Jul 28, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Miami of Ohio assistant coach Trey Meyer is a native of North Augusta and grew up working, playing and coaching at Peach Jam.
Jul 28, 2014, 1:36 PM EDT
The scary part? The rising junior’s game is finally starting to develop.
Jul 28, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
Izundu played very limited minutes as a sophomore
Jul 28, 2014, 12:33 PM EDT
Want to guess how much they spend on planes for recruiting?
Jul 28, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
The best of the best from the final week of the July live evaluation period from Las Vegas and Louisville.
Jul 28, 2014, 9:57 AM EDT
Thon Maker won’t be on the team either, but it is loaded with former college stars.
Jul 28, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Skal Labissiere may want to go to Europe. That does not mean Europe wants him.
Jul 27, 2014, 9:39 PM EDT
Despite not being included among the five official visits, Indiana and UNLV remain options for Zimmerman.
Jul 27, 2014, 5:41 PM EDT
Nearly three months after breaking a backboard during a pickup game, the rising junior took out another one this weekend.
Jul 27, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Chase Jeter is down to Arizona, Duke, UCLA and UNLV.
Jul 27, 2014, 3:05 PM EDT
Ray Smith tore his ACL earlier this month.
Jul 27, 2014, 1:35 PM EDT
Ed O’Bannon’s lead attorney didn’t even know who he was when he first met him.
Jul 27, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
It’s been a summer of viral dunks for the 6-foot-2 recruit
- Seven takeaways from AAU Nationals and Super Showcase 0
- Seven takeaways from Las Vegas for the final AAU weekend of 2014 0
- One college coach’s unique connection to the Peach Jam 0
- July Live Period Week Three Superlatives 0
- Skal Labissiere is considering Europe, but that doesn’t mean there’s a market for him 0
- AAU Nationals Saturday Recap: Raymond Spalding has upside, Trent Forrest and Gary Trent, Jr. perform at a high level 0
- Las Vegas Friday Recap: Jaylen Brown, Kobi Simmons among standouts 0
- Marcus Foster still hasn’t forgotten, or forgiven, those pulled scholarships (3)
- Two surprises after first cuts at Team USA U17 trials (3)
- Isaiah Austin has a job with the NBA once he finishes degree at Baylor (2)
- Top 15 recruit Antonio Blakeney has made the ‘jump’ — literally — to elite status (2)
- The latest allegations against Doug Wojcik involve a physical confrontation (2)