Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EDT
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)
3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
– (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
– (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
– (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
– (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
May 4, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
Seton Hall picked up a potential impact guard as a transfer.
May 4, 2015, 4:01 PM EDT
Anderson was completely off-base in his criticisms.
May 4, 2015, 3:18 PM EDT
It was a Terry Rozier-themed birthday part. Awesome.
May 4, 2015, 2:56 PM EDT
Mo Alie-Cox is one of the biggest and strongest players in college basketball.
May 4, 2015, 2:42 PM EDT
A quick look at some guys that can be stars in 2015-16.
May 4, 2015, 11:54 AM EDT
Ryan has set records for his ability to raise money at events like this.
May 4, 2015, 11:27 AM EDT
Curry burst onto the national scene with a huge 2008 NCAA tournament run.
May 4, 2015, 10:51 AM EDT
LeGerald Vick could end up moving into the class of 2015.
May 3, 2015, 11:30 PM EDT
Maia led the Ivy League in rebounding in each of his three seasons playing at Brown.
May 3, 2015, 10:55 PM EDT
Notre Dame’s first commitment in the 2016 class is an important one.
May 3, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
The Aggies are on the board in 2016, and they’ve landed one of the top distributors in the class.
May 3, 2015, 8:25 PM EDT
Nigel Hayes believes that each individual school should be allowed to decide how much they give an athlete should they be allowed to pay them in the future.
May 3, 2015, 6:10 PM EDT
The Texans will hold its rookie minicamp next weekend.
May 3, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Jones hasn’t played a college game yet, but when he arrives on campus at UNLV he’ll be one of the best dunkers in college basketball.
May 3, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
Former Colorado guard Dustin Thomas is heading to Arkansas.
May 3, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan will be around for at least a few more years, it seems.
May 3, 2015, 1:55 PM EDT
Gonzaga landed a huge transfer in former Washington guard Nigel Williams-Goss.
May 3, 2015, 1:20 PM EDT
Louisville head coach Rick Pitino’s charter jet use is examined in a new report.
May 3, 2015, 10:45 AM EDT
Former Old Dominion forward Richard Ross is continuing to pursue the NFL and has been invited to a mini-camp.
May 3, 2015, 9:15 AM EDT
North Carolina commit Jalek Felton is fun to watch.
- Looking Forward: Potential Breakout Stars in 2015-16 4
- How Jaylen Brown’s commitment made a huge impact on the finalists recruiting him 4
- UPDATED: 2015-2016 College Basketball Way-Too-Early Preseason Rankings 4
- Five-star wing Jaylen Brown commits to California 0
- With Billy Donovan headed to Oklahoma City, where does this leave Florida? 5
- Derek Anderson could not have been more wrong in his Calipari critique 12
- Report: Billy Donovan, Oklahoma City ‘nearing an agreement’ on coaching vacancy 2
- 2015 College Basketball Early Entry List (14)
- Derek Anderson could not have been more wrong in his Calipari critique (12)
- How concerned should North Carolina fans be that Brandon Ingram passed on the Tar Heels? (11)
- CBT Roundtable: What rule would you change in college basketball? (11)
- Report: Five-star small forward Jaylen Brown cuts list to four (6)