Skip to content

Upset Watch: Five possibilities to keep in mind

Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EDT

OVC Murray St Belmont Basketball AP

One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.

1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)

Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.

2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)

Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.

(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)

3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)

The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.

4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)

Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.

5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South) 

Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.

Four other games to consider: 

– (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)

– (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)

– (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)

– (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)

One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)

This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.

Raphielle also writes for the NBE Basketball Report and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

Latest Posts
  1. Former Weber State, D-League assistant Phil Beckner joins Nebraska coaching staff

    Aug 1, 2015, 9:15 PM EDT

    Robert Casey/Weber State Athletics Robert Casey/Weber State Athletics

    Praised for his ability as both a coach and recruiter, Beckner also helped develop Damian Lillard into a lottery pick.

  2. Three-star power forward trims list to five

    Aug 1, 2015, 7:59 PM EDT

    Rivals.com Rivals.com

    Childs played well with the Utah Prospects in Las Vegas during the final evaluation period.

  3. Five-star shooting guard focusing on ten schools

    Aug 1, 2015, 6:39 PM EDT

    Adidas Eurocamp 2015 - Day One Getty Images

    Indiana, Kentucky and St. John’s are among the ten, as many expected.

  4. Semifinal matchups for Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic announced

    Aug 1, 2015, 5:27 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    SMU will be the headliner for this event, with the semifinals scheduled for December 22 and the third place and title games the following night.

  5. Wichita State lands transfer guard from Texas A&M

    Aug 1, 2015, 3:20 PM EDT

    (Getty Images) Getty Images

    Former Texas A&M guard Peyton Allen is now a Shocker.

  6. Iowa sophomore forward shows improvement in summer league

    Aug 1, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT

    (Brian Ray/Hawkeyesports.com) (Brian Ray/Hawkeyesports.com)

    Iowa is hoping for improvement from a sophomore forward who showed promise this summer.

  7. adidas Nations releases list of college counselors

    Aug 1, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT

    Kelly Kline/Under Armour Kelly Kline/Under Armour

    There will be 39 college counselors playing at adidas Nations this weekend.

  8. Isaac Humphries is Kentucky’s insurance policy inside, but should that be concerning?

    Aug 1, 2015, 8:52 AM EDT

    FIBA FIBA

    Is this an addition for depth, or should Kentucky be concerned about another center?

  9. Source: Isaac Humphries expected to commit to Kentucky, enroll in 2015

    Aug 1, 2015, 8:44 AM EDT

    (Francois Nel/Getty Images) Getty Images

    Kentucky continues to add international pieces to its latest recruiting class.

  10. Summer mixtape of five-star guard Markelle Fultz (VIDEO)

    Jul 31, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT

    markelle fultz

    Markelle Fultz was one of the best players during the July live evaluation period.

  11. Five-star Class of 2016 guard Frank Jackson cancels visit and sets official to Duke

    Jul 31, 2015, 8:45 PM EDT

    (adidas) (adidas)

    Duke gets a huge official visit in late August from a five-star guard.

  12. UCLA gets commitment from Class of 2019 guard and brother of five-star commitment

    Jul 31, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    LaMelo Ball, a 13-year-old guard, committed to UCLA like his two older brothers.

  13. Michigan State guard returns from multiple foot injuries

    Jul 31, 2015, 5:45 PM EDT

    Maryland v Michigan State Getty Images

    Michigan State sophomore guard Javon Bess will try to stay healthy and in the rotation next season.

  14. Richmond lands its second 2016 commitment of the week

    Jul 31, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT

    Chris Mooney - UR AP

    Both are perimeter players, giving the Spiders additional depth moving forward.

  15. Four-star combo guard trims list to five schools

    Jul 31, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT

    Kelly Kline/Under Armour/Rivals Kelly Kline/Under Armour/Rivals

    McLaughlin de-committed from Washington in mid-May, but the Huskies remain in the mix.

  16. Appeals court grants stay of injunction in O’Bannon lawsuit

    Jul 31, 2015, 1:30 PM EDT

    ed o'bannon Getty Images

    The injunction would have allowed current and future players to be compensated for the uses of their names, images and likenesses.

  17. Kentucky announces plans for alumni game against former North Carolina players

    Jul 31, 2015, 12:03 PM EDT

    150731-UK-UNC Getty Images

    The two programs are ranked first and third, respectively, on the NCAA all-time wins list.

  18. Shooting guard Maverick Rowan’s junior season highlight video

    Jul 31, 2015, 11:07 AM EDT

    adidas adidas

    Louisville, NC State, St. John’s and West Virginia remain in the running for his pledge.