Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EST
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
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3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
– (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
– (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
– (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
– (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
Mar 1, 2015, 6:29 PM EST
Davon Dillard announced his commitment to Cal Sunday afternoon. The Golden Bears hope to reel in the two big men who were also on campus in Ivan Rabb and Caleb Swanigan.
Mar 1, 2015, 5:11 PM EST
Austin Nichols injured his ankle early in the second half of Memphis’ loss
Mar 1, 2015, 4:30 PM EST
Northeastern’s Devon Begley had to deal with a unique defender, the mop boy, while scoring off of a steal against College of Charleston.
Mar 1, 2015, 3:35 PM EST
Rodney Purvis just crushed this dunk.
Mar 1, 2015, 2:00 PM EST
Michigan point guard Spike Albrecht has been battling a hip injury this season.
Mar 1, 2015, 12:45 PM EST
Maryland might miss Michal Cekovsky for some time after the freshman big man was injured during warm-ups on Saturday.
Mar 1, 2015, 11:30 AM EST
Kaelon Wilson put it on a defender on Saturday.
Mar 1, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
Kansas State picked up a Class of 2015 guard commitment on Sunday.
Mar 1, 2015, 9:00 AM EST
A quiet Sunday features some bubble teams clashing.
Late Night Snacks: No. 7 Arizona, No. 11 Wichita State and No. 19 Baylor among Saturday’s big winners
Mar 1, 2015, 2:11 AM EST
No. 1 Kentucky moved to 29-0, and No. 6 Villanova came back to win at Xavier.
Mar 1, 2015, 1:18 AM EST
Will the Zags even stay out west?
Mar 1, 2015, 12:43 AM EST
In a game that saw both teams struggle to find their rhythm, “Zeus” and Gabe York came up big for Arizona.
Bubble Banter: Boise State, St. John’s, Dayton win the day; Texas, N.C. State lose; and Kansas State?
Mar 1, 2015, 12:27 AM EST
All the bubble winners and losers from Saturday’s college hoops action.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:58 PM EST
This came close to being really, really bad.
Feb 28, 2015, 10:25 PM EST
Dwayne Polee II had to sit out Saturday’s loss to Boise State as a result of an abnormal reading generated by his cardiac monitor.
Feb 28, 2015, 7:42 PM EST
With the loss Texas drops to 1-11 in games against teams in the RPI Top 50.
Feb 28, 2015, 7:03 PM EST
The Cyclones lost at home against Baylor and then lost at Kansas State.
Feb 28, 2015, 7:01 PM EST
Kentucky has now won 46 SEC titles, and this group looks poised to add more hardware to the trophy case before the season concludes.
Feb 28, 2015, 5:13 PM EST
Having just seven scholarship players hasn’t kept the Flyers from playing a major role in the Atlantic 10 race.
Feb 28, 2015, 4:48 PM EST
The Shockers are once again champions of the Valley.
- Late Night Snacks: No. 7 Arizona, No. 11 Wichita State and No. 19 Baylor among Saturday’s big winners 1
- Did Gonzaga cost themselves a No. 1 seed with loss to BYU? 5
- Kaleb Tarczewski produces another quality outing as No. 7 Arizona beats No. 13 Utah 0
- Bubble Banter: Boise State, St. John’s, Dayton win the day; Texas, N.C. State lose; and Kansas State? 3
- No. 1 Kentucky moves to 29-0 with blowout win over No. 18 Arkansas 3
- No. 11 Wichita State wins the Missouri Valley by knocking off No. 10 Northern Iowa 1
- NCAA tournament berth the final step for St. John’s senior class 0
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- You Make the Call: Was Texas guard Isaiah Taylor fouled on this drive? (12)
- Roy Williams calls out North Carolina fans following win over Georgia Tech (11)
- Bill Self crushed, Jamari Traylor targeted during Kansas State court storm (VIDEO) (11)
- Dez Wells, Melo Trimble lead No. 14 Maryland to upset of No. 5 Wisconsin (9)