Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EST
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
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3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
- (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
- (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
- (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
- (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
Dec 21, 2014, 11:09 PM EST
Yeah, you’re going to want to see this.
Dec 21, 2014, 10:31 PM EST
Four of the eight teams in the field reached the NCAA tournament last season.
Dec 21, 2014, 8:22 PM EST
Virginia limited Harvard to 27 points, Maryland won at Oklahoma State, and Georgia picked up a solid home win.
Dec 21, 2014, 7:04 PM EST
Could the Terps be the second-best team in the Big Ten? At the very least they’ve earned their place in the conversation.
Dec 21, 2014, 5:31 PM EST
Harrell was assessed a flagrant 2 foul in Saturday’s win over Western Kentucky.
Dec 21, 2014, 4:42 PM EST
Coaches donning festive holiday sweaters doesn’t happen all that often in college basketball.
Dec 21, 2014, 3:46 PM EST
Brad Stevens left Butler in 2013, agreeing to a six-year deal with the Boston Celtics, but that will not stop his name being linked to one specific college job.
Dec 21, 2014, 3:01 PM EST
The Buckeyes are 9-2, dropping both of their key non-conferences games against ranked opponents.
Dec 21, 2014, 1:43 PM EST
Harvard did not set the record for lowest field goal percentage or lowest first-half points, but the Crimson did tie an NCAA record on Sunday afternoon.
Dec 21, 2014, 1:15 PM EST
The Orange and Wildcats have split a home-and-home series since the old Big East disbanded several years ago.
Dec 21, 2014, 11:15 AM EST
The Louisville forward spoke about the incident that took place at the end of the first half against Western Kentucky following the game.
Dec 21, 2014, 10:00 AM EST
The nation’s top recruit also dropped 37 points in a win for Montverde Academy (Florida)
Dec 21, 2014, 9:11 AM EST
Here’s a rundown of Sunday’s games.
Dec 21, 2014, 12:10 AM EST
With pieces that fit together better than last season’s 17-15 squad, the Huskies are off to a 10-0 start.
Dec 20, 2014, 10:26 PM EST
George Mason’s last win over a Division I opponent prior to Saturday came against another MAAC program, Manhattan, on November 29.
Dec 20, 2014, 9:00 PM EST
Jackson scored 22 points, with two coming on an emphatic dunk on Purdue freshman Isaac Haas.
Dec 20, 2014, 8:41 PM EST
It’s already been a busy day in college hoops, with two buzzer-beaters and two ranked teams already going down.
Dec 20, 2014, 7:57 PM EST
While Michigan State’s 4-for-21 night from three didn’t help matters, Texas Southern shot better than 53 percent from the field.
Dec 20, 2014, 7:18 PM EST
Burton was one of two sophomores to leave the Marquette program earlier this month.
Dec 20, 2014, 5:46 PM EST
Kentucky completely embarrassed UCLA on Saturday.
- ACC suspends Louisville junior forward Montrezl Harrell one game 0
- Late Night Snacks: Villanova survives Syracuse while UNC, SMU get big wins 0
- No. 1 Kentucky dismantles UCLA 5
- Markus Kennedy cleared to play immediately for SMU 0
- Weekend Preview: A loaded Saturday slate highlights the weekend 3
- Rebounding, foul shooting help No. 2 Duke make up for 19 turnovers in win over UConn 0
- Michigan State starting forward to miss next two games with non-displaced wrist fracture 0
- Report: David Robinson’s son will be preferred walk-on at Duke in 2015-16 (VIDEO) (6)
- West Virginia’s Bob Huggins torches Marshall after coach calls Huggs ‘afraid’ (5)
- No. 1 Kentucky dismantles UCLA (5)
- Tracking The Unbeatens: There are now just nine teams without a loss (3)
- Lauren Hill’s playing career over, to become honorary coach (3)