Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EST
One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.
1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)
Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.
2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)
Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.
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3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)
The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.
4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)
Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.
5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South)
Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.
Four other games to consider:
- (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)
- (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)
- (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)
- (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)
One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)
This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.
Nov 25, 2014, 4:24 PM EST
Minnesota will take a hit to its back court with this suspension.
Nov 25, 2014, 2:58 PM EST
I hope his joke doesn’t make people ignore the fact the he really felt bad about this.
Nov 25, 2014, 2:43 PM EST
We get some good gauge games on Tuesday night.
Nov 25, 2014, 1:18 PM EST
Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor are near the top, but the rest of the top five may surprise you.
Nov 25, 2014, 12:27 PM EST
Benjamin hurt his ankle against Michigan.
Nov 25, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
Jason McManamen is trying to prove Billy Hoyle and Sidney Dean wrong.
Nov 25, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
Michigan was dominated on the glass, but the freshman forward stepped up to ice the victory.
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Can a team that runs a pressing system truly be one of the nations elite?
Late Night Snacks: San Diego State and BYU engage in double OT thriller; Nova, Zona earn big wins; Indiana upset at home
Nov 25, 2014, 2:00 AM EST
A busy night of tournament and non-conference action in college hoops made for some big wins for Villanova and Arizona and a home loss for Indiana.
Nov 24, 2014, 11:51 PM EST
We knew Iowa State had a lot of offensive weapons, but with the return of some key rotation players the Cyclones look really tough.
No. 6 Louisville jumps out to 29-0 lead, holds Savannah State scoreless for nearly 16 minutes in easy win
Nov 24, 2014, 9:35 PM EST
Louisville’s defense took it up a notch against Savannah State.
Nov 24, 2014, 8:30 PM EST
Tennessee is losing an assistant coach as a NCAA investigation into head coach Donnie Tyndall’s time at Southern Mississippi continues.
Nov 24, 2014, 7:27 PM EST
No. 3 Arizona held off Missouri the whole game and cruised to a double-digit win in Maui.
Nov 24, 2014, 6:30 PM EST
After spending some time in the hospital battling pneumonia, legendary coach Jerry Tarkanian is leaving the hospital.
Nov 24, 2014, 5:15 PM EST
Florida Gulf Coast suspended a key player for three games on Monday.
Nov 24, 2014, 4:25 PM EST
Baylor lost a commitment from a 2015 guard.
Nov 24, 2014, 2:24 PM EST
Jerian Grant was dominant in the final 12 minutes against Providence.
Nov 24, 2014, 1:36 PM EST
Once again, the Maui has put together a loaded field.
Nov 24, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
There will be some fun basketball games on Monday night.
Nov 24, 2014, 12:19 PM EST
Atson was called by one scout the “Chris Herren of New Haven”.
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