Skip to content

Upset Watch: Five possibilities to keep in mind

Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EDT

OVC Murray St Belmont Basketball AP

One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.

1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)

Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.

2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)

Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.

(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)

3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)

The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.

4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)

Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.

5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South) 

Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.

Four other games to consider: 

- (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)

- (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)

- (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)

- (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)

One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)

This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.

Raphielle also writes for the NBE Basketball Report and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

Latest Posts
  1. Report: UConn center Amida Brimah may undergo shoulder surgery

    Apr 24, 2014, 12:17 AM EDT

    NCAA Men's Final Four - Championship Getty Images

    According to a report, UConn center Amida Brimah will need to undergo surgery on his left shoulder.

  2. Shaka Smart adds former Vanderbilt assistant David Cason to VCU coaching staff

    Apr 23, 2014, 10:38 PM EDT

    Shaka Smart Getty Images

    Shaka Smart filled a vacancy on his staff Wednesday, hiring former Vanderbilt assistant David Cason.

  3. Has Top 100 forward Malek Harris committed to Kansas State?

    Apr 23, 2014, 9:04 PM EDT

    Bruce Weber AP

    Less than a week after making an official visit to the school, it was reported that Malek Harris had committed to Kansas State. But that may not be the case.

  4. Tulsa head coach Frank Haith announces coaching staff

    Apr 23, 2014, 7:49 PM EDT

    Frank Haith AP

    Frank Haith announced his coaching staff Wednesday, with the trio combining to have more than 90 seasons of coaching experience.

  5. Report: UConn, Duke to meet at Izod Center next season

    Apr 23, 2014, 6:33 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    UConn and Duke will reportedly play each other just before Christmas in New Jersey.

  6. DePaul adds junior college guard Darrick Wood

    Apr 23, 2014, 5:23 PM EDT

    Oliver Purnell AP

    Former St. John’s commit Darrick Wood verbally committed to attend DePaul on Wednesday.

  7. Kentucky’s Dakari Johnson to return for sophomore season

    Apr 23, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT

    Dakari Johnson AP

    After playing well in Kentucky’s run to the national title game, Dakari Johnson has decided to return for his sophomore season.

  8. LSU freshman Jordan Mickey returning for his sophomore season

    Apr 23, 2014, 3:52 PM EDT

    jordan mickey AP

    LSU should have the pieces to be a tournament team in 2014-2015.

  9. Report: Richard Pitino lands fifth commitment first Minnesota class

    Apr 23, 2014, 2:54 PM EDT

    2014 NIT Championship Getty Images

    Minnesota landed a commitment from a 6-foot-11 three-star recruit.

  10. Arnaud William Adala Moto to transfer from Wake Forest

    Apr 23, 2014, 2:28 PM EDT

    Wake Forest v Maryland Wake Forest v Maryland

    Adala Moto was a top 150 recruit in the class of 2012.

  11. Arizona-signee Kadeem Allen named JuCo Player of the Year

    Apr 23, 2014, 1:58 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Allen will be one of the keys to Arizona’s season. Click to see why.

  12. Julius Randle visits with the Dan Patrick Show (VIDEO)

    Apr 23, 2014, 12:34 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Randle talks favorite NBA players and the one-and-done rule.

  13. Alex Poythress is returning to Kentucky for his junior year

    Apr 23, 2014, 11:49 AM EDT

    poythress2 Getty Images

    Kentucky got some good news on Wednesday afternoon.

  14. Report: UTEP head coach Tim Floyd emerges as a candidate for Missouri job

    Apr 22, 2014, 11:08 PM EDT

    AP AP

    The UTEP coach is now a candidate to replace Frank Haith at Missouri.

  15. Former Marquette commit Marial Shayok picks Virginia

    Apr 22, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Virginia got its fourth commit on Tuesday night.

  16. UConn’s journey to the 2014 National Title (VIDEO)

    Apr 22, 2014, 9:09 PM EDT

    UConn AP

    A look back on UConn’s second title in four years.

  17. Southern and head coach Roman Banks agree to new deal

    Apr 22, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    The Southern coach is receiving a contract extension.

  18. Oregon point guard Johnathan Loyd practices with football team

    Apr 22, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Loyd is converting from point guard to wide receiver.

Featured video

Derrick Gordon says 'Why not me?'