Skip to content

Upset Watch: Five possibilities to keep in mind

Mar 18, 2013, 7:00 PM EST

OVC Murray St Belmont Basketball AP

One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.

1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)

Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.

2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)

Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.

(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)

3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)

The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.

4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)

Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.

5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South) 

Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.

Four other games to consider: 

– (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)

– (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)

– (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)

– (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)

One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)

This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.

Raphielle also writes for the NBE Basketball Report and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

Latest Posts
  1. Three-star small forward becomes California’s first 2015 verbal commitment

    Mar 1, 2015, 6:29 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Davon Dillard announced his commitment to Cal Sunday afternoon. The Golden Bears hope to reel in the two big men who were also on campus in Ivan Rabb and Caleb Swanigan.

  2. Memphis sophomore forward re-injures right ankle in overtime loss to Tulsa

    Mar 1, 2015, 5:11 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Austin Nichols injured his ankle early in the second half of Memphis’ loss

  3. Northeastern’s Devon Begley avoids mop boy to still score against College of Charleston (VIDEO)

    Mar 1, 2015, 4:30 PM EST

    Coaches Vs. Cancer College Basketball Tripleheader Getty Images

    Northeastern’s Devon Begley had to deal with a unique defender, the mop boy, while scoring off of a steal against College of Charleston.

  4. Another Michigan point guard playing through injury

    Mar 1, 2015, 2:00 PM EST

    (Getty Images) Getty Images

    Michigan point guard Spike Albrecht has been battling a hip injury this season.

  5. Maryland big man will have MRI after missing Michigan game

    Mar 1, 2015, 12:45 PM EST

    Virginia v Maryland Getty Images

    Maryland might miss Michal Cekovsky for some time after the freshman big man was injured during warm-ups on Saturday.

  6. Kansas State lands guard commitment in 2015 class

    Mar 1, 2015, 10:15 AM EST

    (DMV Elite) (DMV Elite)

    Kansas State picked up a Class of 2015 guard commitment on Sunday.

  7. Kaleb Tarczewski produces another quality outing as No. 7 Arizona beats No. 13 Utah

    Mar 1, 2015, 12:43 AM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    In a game that saw both teams struggle to find their rhythm, “Zeus” and Gabe York came up big for Arizona.

  8. ‘Medical setback’ sidelines San Diego State senior forward indefinitely

    Feb 28, 2015, 10:25 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Dwayne Polee II had to sit out Saturday’s loss to Boise State as a result of an abnormal reading generated by his cardiac monitor.

  9. You Make the Call: Was Texas guard Isaiah Taylor fouled on this drive?

    Feb 28, 2015, 7:42 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    With the loss Texas drops to 1-11 in games against teams in the RPI Top 50.

  10. Why Iowa State fans shouldn’t hyperventilate after a second straight loss

    Feb 28, 2015, 7:03 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    The Cyclones lost at home against Baylor and then lost at Kansas State.

  11. No. 1 Kentucky moves to 29-0 with blowout win over No. 18 Arkansas

    Feb 28, 2015, 7:01 PM EST

    Getty Images Getty Images

    Kentucky has now won 46 SEC titles, and this group looks poised to add more hardware to the trophy case before the season concludes.

  12. Dayton remains tied for first in the Atlantic 10 with win at No. 22 VCU

    Feb 28, 2015, 5:13 PM EST

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Having just seven scholarship players hasn’t kept the Flyers from playing a major role in the Atlantic 10 race.