Mar 19, 2013, 10:00 AM EST
Obviously, 67 eligible teams will fail to win the national title this year. That’s a given. So I’m not going to be ridiculous about this. To be considered for this designation, a team must occupy one of the premium seeding spots: No. 1-No. 4 in other words. These sixteen contenders are expected to win, and will have the blue-chip horses to get it done, in theory.
These are teams who expect to win titles. Teams who will be very disappointed and wonder what on earth went wrong if they don’t at least make it to the Elite Eight.
That said, here they are: five teams who won’t be showered with confetti in Atlanta this April.
No. 1 Louisville (Midwest): I know, I’m as shocked to be writing this as you are to be reading it. Before the seedings came out, I would have called the Cards my pick to cut down the nets without question. But seeing them in the same bracket as No. 2 Duke wrecks my confidence. Lest we forget, Duke beat Louisville 76-71 in November (sans Gorgui Dieng, yes, I know). If the two meet again, the Blue Devils will again have a full-strength Ryan Kelly available to make floor-stretching jumpshots Dieng can’t easily block, but also a more confident and experienced group of underclassmen backing him up. And that meeting can only happen in the Elite Eight. Louisville has to fight its way out of the top half of the Region of Doom just to get there. Is this how the committee rewards the number one overall seed? Thanks but no thanks.
(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)
No. 2 Miami (East): I do appreciate that Miami won the ACC tournament title, but I would feel better if they had beat at least one team with a top-notch defense over those three days. With a team this inexperienced in postseason play, it’s tough to know if they’re going to come out like the group that won 14 straight or the one that lost to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech once the end game was in sight. There’s also that 67.7 percent team free throw mark. That’s not going to cut it in the second weekend.
No. 2 Georgetown (South): Otto Porter is a spectacular player, but I’m not sure he can put this team on his back for six straight games. Defensively, the Hoyas are pretty tough, so that could shade things a bit, but the thought of them running an ever narrower gauntlet past teams with diverse talents like Florida or Kansas seems dubious. There just aren’t enough offensive options.
No. 3 Marquette (East): Team Buzz is always so darn scrappy and tough, you kind of want them to succeed (Big East foes excepted). This team has some rather obvious fatal flaws, however, and those are enough to sink them, possibly much earlier than they would prefer. First, they’re a lousy three-point shooting team, barely over 30 percent on the season. Second, they turn the ball over way too often. Both are big March no-nos.
No. 4 Michigan (South): Michigan is a really terrific team, and I hate to pick against them. Trey Burke has been college basketball’s best player this year, and he has a lot of talent around him. But they’re defensively shaky at times. Looking at Kenpom, another odd thing jumps out as well: they don’t get to the free throw line very often. It’s a strange thing to poo-poo a team on, but how many March games get settled at the line? Plenty.
You may notice none of my picks come from the West bracket. That’s because I can honestly see any of the top four seeds in that region either making the Final Four or checking out early, and I can’t in my heart of hearts see any of them hoisting a trophy. So I had to list all of them or none of them, in a way.
If they prove me wrong? Another reason March rules. I ain’t even gonna be mad.
Eric Angevine edits Storming the Floor. He tweets @stfhoops.
Dec 18, 2014, 10:53 AM EST
Three-point shooting might be the key to the Virginia season.
Dec 18, 2014, 9:59 AM EST
She may not be playing anymore, but Lauren’s time with the basketball program has not yet come to an end.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:45 AM EST
David Nwaba scored 11 second-half points to help lead the Mustangs back from a 14-points halftime deficit. Here are two of those points.
Dec 18, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
Doolin finished the game with 15 points, three assists and no turnovers, and made two huge plays to get UNLV the two-point win over Portland.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:04 AM EST
This is the first win that the American has landed over a ranked team.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:00 AM EST
Dawson’s injury occurred on the same night that freshman Javon Bess made his regular season debut for the Spartans.
Dec 17, 2014, 10:33 PM EST
Copes played in just four games this season due to injury.
Dec 17, 2014, 10:07 PM EST
The best part is that it was very much intentional
Dec 17, 2014, 9:20 PM EST
Delaware State’s Amere May scored more points than anyone in college basketball has this season.
Dec 17, 2014, 8:19 PM EST
With Lavon Long and Brett Bisping now sidelined, the Saints are without their two best rebounders.
Dec 17, 2014, 6:55 PM EST
Defense and turnovers will be the keys for Texas when Big 12 play begins.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:56 PM EST
After shooting 40.7% from the field and 29.4% from three as a sophomore, Anderson’s off to a hot start for the sixth-ranked Cavaliers.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:26 PM EST
With these dismissals Dayton has no eligible players taller than 6-foot-6.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:00 PM EST
This may be the most interesting night of hoops this week.
Dec 17, 2014, 3:44 PM EST
What changes will Kansas make to get better by March?
Dec 17, 2014, 2:30 PM EST
They are so short-handed that even the head coach is participating in practices.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:53 PM EST
Treadwell was accused of assaulting a member of the women’s team.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell broke his right hand in a win over DePaul.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:16 AM EST
The Shockers miss Cleanthony Early, but how much will this hurt them in the long-term?
Dec 17, 2014, 10:33 AM EST
This is one of the most surprising posterizeds we’ve seen this year.
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