Mar 19, 2013, 10:00 AM EDT
Obviously, 67 eligible teams will fail to win the national title this year. That’s a given. So I’m not going to be ridiculous about this. To be considered for this designation, a team must occupy one of the premium seeding spots: No. 1-No. 4 in other words. These sixteen contenders are expected to win, and will have the blue-chip horses to get it done, in theory.
These are teams who expect to win titles. Teams who will be very disappointed and wonder what on earth went wrong if they don’t at least make it to the Elite Eight.
That said, here they are: five teams who won’t be showered with confetti in Atlanta this April.
No. 1 Louisville (Midwest): I know, I’m as shocked to be writing this as you are to be reading it. Before the seedings came out, I would have called the Cards my pick to cut down the nets without question. But seeing them in the same bracket as No. 2 Duke wrecks my confidence. Lest we forget, Duke beat Louisville 76-71 in November (sans Gorgui Dieng, yes, I know). If the two meet again, the Blue Devils will again have a full-strength Ryan Kelly available to make floor-stretching jumpshots Dieng can’t easily block, but also a more confident and experienced group of underclassmen backing him up. And that meeting can only happen in the Elite Eight. Louisville has to fight its way out of the top half of the Region of Doom just to get there. Is this how the committee rewards the number one overall seed? Thanks but no thanks.
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No. 2 Miami (East): I do appreciate that Miami won the ACC tournament title, but I would feel better if they had beat at least one team with a top-notch defense over those three days. With a team this inexperienced in postseason play, it’s tough to know if they’re going to come out like the group that won 14 straight or the one that lost to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech once the end game was in sight. There’s also that 67.7 percent team free throw mark. That’s not going to cut it in the second weekend.
No. 2 Georgetown (South): Otto Porter is a spectacular player, but I’m not sure he can put this team on his back for six straight games. Defensively, the Hoyas are pretty tough, so that could shade things a bit, but the thought of them running an ever narrower gauntlet past teams with diverse talents like Florida or Kansas seems dubious. There just aren’t enough offensive options.
No. 3 Marquette (East): Team Buzz is always so darn scrappy and tough, you kind of want them to succeed (Big East foes excepted). This team has some rather obvious fatal flaws, however, and those are enough to sink them, possibly much earlier than they would prefer. First, they’re a lousy three-point shooting team, barely over 30 percent on the season. Second, they turn the ball over way too often. Both are big March no-nos.
No. 4 Michigan (South): Michigan is a really terrific team, and I hate to pick against them. Trey Burke has been college basketball’s best player this year, and he has a lot of talent around him. But they’re defensively shaky at times. Looking at Kenpom, another odd thing jumps out as well: they don’t get to the free throw line very often. It’s a strange thing to poo-poo a team on, but how many March games get settled at the line? Plenty.
You may notice none of my picks come from the West bracket. That’s because I can honestly see any of the top four seeds in that region either making the Final Four or checking out early, and I can’t in my heart of hearts see any of them hoisting a trophy. So I had to list all of them or none of them, in a way.
If they prove me wrong? Another reason March rules. I ain’t even gonna be mad.
Eric Angevine edits Storming the Floor. He tweets @stfhoops.
Oct 20, 2014, 11:00 PM EDT
Kansas State is losing a redshirt freshman to transfer.
Oct 20, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
Virginia got a very skilled guard in the 2016 class.
Oct 20, 2014, 9:15 PM EDT
Florida landed an in-state Class of 2015 wing to make it a four-man class.
Oct 20, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
Memphis found a 2016 guard to join center Nick Marshall in the recruiting class.
Oct 20, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
SMU could be in trouble if a second-team all-league pick is ruled ineligible.
Oct 20, 2014, 7:00 PM EDT
News and notes from the world of college basketball recruiting.
Oct 20, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
Lorenzo Romar now has a six-man recruiting class for 2015.
Oct 20, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Oklahoma has a chance to be the second-best team in the Big 12, especially if a key player receives a waiver.
Oct 20, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
The Hawks will have a thin front court this season.
Oct 20, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
Five new hires that should thrive, and five who may end up struggling.
Oct 20, 2014, 2:09 PM EDT
Stevie Clark was dismissed from Oklahoma State after a pair of bizarre incidents involving the police.
Oct 20, 2014, 1:30 PM EDT
Chris Walker sounds pretty funny.
Oct 20, 2014, 12:45 PM EDT
Jaylen Brantley is Maryland’s first commitment in the class.
Oct 20, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
After riding the coattails of a pair of Californians, Weber State’s focus on recruiting the state of Texas will pay off this season.
Oct 20, 2014, 11:27 AM EDT
Thon Maker has another mixtape out.
Oct 20, 2014, 10:39 AM EDT
Mudiay has now played two preseason games as a professional.
Oct 20, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Weber State will be the preseason favorites, but Northern Arizona, Sacramento State and Eastern Washington will lead a group of challengers capable of pushing the reigning champs.
Oct 19, 2014, 10:57 PM EDT
Junior forward Mark Tollefsen may be one of the best dunkers in America.
Oct 19, 2014, 8:49 PM EDT
Chris Jones’ three-pointer in the final seconds gave the White team a 75-72 win over the Red.
Oct 19, 2014, 6:59 PM EDT
Evan Smotrycz was re-evaluated Saturday after suffering the injury at the end of practice Friday.
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