Mar 19, 2013, 10:00 AM EDT
Obviously, 67 eligible teams will fail to win the national title this year. That’s a given. So I’m not going to be ridiculous about this. To be considered for this designation, a team must occupy one of the premium seeding spots: No. 1-No. 4 in other words. These sixteen contenders are expected to win, and will have the blue-chip horses to get it done, in theory.
These are teams who expect to win titles. Teams who will be very disappointed and wonder what on earth went wrong if they don’t at least make it to the Elite Eight.
That said, here they are: five teams who won’t be showered with confetti in Atlanta this April.
No. 1 Louisville (Midwest): I know, I’m as shocked to be writing this as you are to be reading it. Before the seedings came out, I would have called the Cards my pick to cut down the nets without question. But seeing them in the same bracket as No. 2 Duke wrecks my confidence. Lest we forget, Duke beat Louisville 76-71 in November (sans Gorgui Dieng, yes, I know). If the two meet again, the Blue Devils will again have a full-strength Ryan Kelly available to make floor-stretching jumpshots Dieng can’t easily block, but also a more confident and experienced group of underclassmen backing him up. And that meeting can only happen in the Elite Eight. Louisville has to fight its way out of the top half of the Region of Doom just to get there. Is this how the committee rewards the number one overall seed? Thanks but no thanks.
(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)
No. 2 Miami (East): I do appreciate that Miami won the ACC tournament title, but I would feel better if they had beat at least one team with a top-notch defense over those three days. With a team this inexperienced in postseason play, it’s tough to know if they’re going to come out like the group that won 14 straight or the one that lost to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech once the end game was in sight. There’s also that 67.7 percent team free throw mark. That’s not going to cut it in the second weekend.
No. 2 Georgetown (South): Otto Porter is a spectacular player, but I’m not sure he can put this team on his back for six straight games. Defensively, the Hoyas are pretty tough, so that could shade things a bit, but the thought of them running an ever narrower gauntlet past teams with diverse talents like Florida or Kansas seems dubious. There just aren’t enough offensive options.
No. 3 Marquette (East): Team Buzz is always so darn scrappy and tough, you kind of want them to succeed (Big East foes excepted). This team has some rather obvious fatal flaws, however, and those are enough to sink them, possibly much earlier than they would prefer. First, they’re a lousy three-point shooting team, barely over 30 percent on the season. Second, they turn the ball over way too often. Both are big March no-nos.
No. 4 Michigan (South): Michigan is a really terrific team, and I hate to pick against them. Trey Burke has been college basketball’s best player this year, and he has a lot of talent around him. But they’re defensively shaky at times. Looking at Kenpom, another odd thing jumps out as well: they don’t get to the free throw line very often. It’s a strange thing to poo-poo a team on, but how many March games get settled at the line? Plenty.
You may notice none of my picks come from the West bracket. That’s because I can honestly see any of the top four seeds in that region either making the Final Four or checking out early, and I can’t in my heart of hearts see any of them hoisting a trophy. So I had to list all of them or none of them, in a way.
If they prove me wrong? Another reason March rules. I ain’t even gonna be mad.
Eric Angevine edits Storming the Floor. He tweets @stfhoops.
May 27, 2015, 11:27 PM EDT
It’s safe to say that Sherman is no fan of the NCAA.
May 27, 2015, 9:05 PM EDT
The shot clock won’t have as much of an impact on offenses as lessening the physicality of the game.
May 27, 2015, 7:31 PM EDT
The 6-foot-11 center was originally expected to attend prep school before joining Memphis in 2016.
May 27, 2015, 5:38 PM EDT
The 6-foot-6 southpaw showed off his arm, and was accurate in doing so.
May 27, 2015, 3:20 PM EDT
Matthews is the recruit everyone forgets about.
May 27, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT
That numbers is half what it was in 2015.
May 27, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Self and his wife created the Assists Foundation.
May 27, 2015, 11:09 AM EDT
Reed broke a cop’s finger while resisting a shoplifting arrest.
May 27, 2015, 10:28 AM EDT
Miles is 47-49 in three years with Nebraska.
May 27, 2015, 9:27 AM EDT
This swing is ugly.
May 26, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
DeAndre Ayton finally got a chance to play this spring and delivered in a big way.
May 26, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Point guard CJ Walker is focused on seven schools during the recruiting process.
May 26, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Four-star guard Maverick Rowan has a choice to make for his basketball future in the immediate future.
May 26, 2015, 6:15 PM EDT
Minnesota closed out its 2015 recruiting efforts with its second incoming transfer of the offseason.
May 26, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
The spring grassroots season is over and another spring EYBL season is complete.
May 26, 2015, 3:21 PM EDT
The schedule isn’t out yet, but each team now knows who they will play and where they will play them.
May 26, 2015, 2:01 PM EDT
RaShid Gaston averaged 15.5 points and 9.6 boards.
May 26, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Shaqquan Aaron could never crack Rick Pitino’s rotation.
May 26, 2015, 12:42 PM EDT
The only people that would punish are the people that had nothing to do with the violations in the first place.
May 26, 2015, 10:54 AM EDT
Collins has Northwestern trending in the right direction.
- There’s only one way the NCAA gets UNC investigation wrong: a 2016 postseason ban 33
- Academic issues expected to sideline St. John’s point guard for fall semester, maybe longer 6
- North Carolina announces receipt of Notice of Allegations from NCAA 3
- LSU’s ’25 is coming’ campaign doesn’t try to hide that they’re monetizing Ben Simmons 2
- Looking Forward: Catching up on the American’s offseason 1
- Five-star center Caleb Swanigan has committed to Purdue 8
- Friday’s most important rule changes only matter if refs actually enforce them 2
- There’s only one way the NCAA gets UNC investigation wrong: a 2016 postseason ban (36)
- Four men’s teams banned from 2016 postseason due to APR scores (10)
- Sports book lists Maryland as early favorite to win national title (9)
- Academic issues expected to sideline St. John’s point guard for fall semester, maybe longer (6)
- John Calipari is selling his program when he says national title isn’t a goal (5)