Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 16, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
The tallest player in high school basketball has some visits set.
Sep 16, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
Missouri will move on with team-related activities without two freshmen following an arrest.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:15 PM EDT
Arizona State has cut ties with a junior college forward and 2015 recruit was who arrested over the weekend.
Sep 16, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Bo Ryan shows he’s a big man on campus at Wisconsin following his Final Four appearance.
Sep 16, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
Jalen Rose says that former teammates Chris Webber needs to apologize.
Sep 16, 2014, 6:06 PM EDT
The Longhorns pull in a commitment from a good guard in 2015.
Sep 16, 2014, 5:46 PM EDT
Kevin Stallings has earned four commitments in 2015.
Sep 16, 2014, 4:44 PM EDT
The five-star recruit decommitted from Louisville, and what it has to do with shoe companies.
Sep 16, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
There are also a limited number of ugly road weeks.
Sep 16, 2014, 11:52 AM EDT
Wojcik was fired with cause for allegedly abusing his players.
Sep 16, 2014, 10:54 AM EDT
Mudiays $1.2 million deal with a team in China will now be significantly supplemented.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:50 AM EDT
Have you ever seen ‘Goodfellas’? You’ll recognize one of the main players in this story.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Ivan Rabb is one of the best centers in the country.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:33 PM EDT
Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney has opened it back up.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:22 PM EDT
The Bearcats added a 2015 recruit on Monday night.
Sep 15, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Kansas begins a two-week Boot Camp today.
Sep 15, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Shaquille Johnson is in trouble at his new home.
Sep 15, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Things are getting interesting between the Pitinos as we get closer to the Minnesota and Louisville game.
Sep 15, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Florida International had some bad luck over the weekend.
Sep 15, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Charlotte head coach Alan Major has returned to the team.
- Jalen Rose believes Chris Webber should apologize for what happened at Michigan 1
- Thoughts on Antonio Blakeney, shoe companies and decommitments 0
- Top prospect in Class of 2014 signs endorsement deal with Under Armour 0
- Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney decommits from Louisville 3
- Richard Pitino warns Minnesota fans not to trust his dad before Louisville opener 2
- CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UConn and Arizona land 2015 big men, 2015 commitments flying off the board 0
- USA Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski and thoughts on today’s ‘takedown’ 4
- Former Indiana guard A.J. Guyton writes an open letter to Bob Knight (6)
- USA Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski and thoughts on today’s ‘takedown’ (4)
- Bo Ryan hits golf balls into Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium (PHOTO) (4)
- Four-star power forward becomes Indiana’s first 2015 commitment (3)
- Arizona State commit arrested for allegedly shoplifting less than $20 in DVDs from Walmart (3)