Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 31, 2015, 11:15 PM EDT
Malik Monk is rated No. 6 overall in the Class of 2016 by Rivals.
Aug 31, 2015, 9:44 PM EDT
It’s the second commit in as many nights for the Cyclones.
Aug 31, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Javion Ogunyemi averaged 9.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in 2014-15.
Aug 31, 2015, 6:10 PM EDT
The two teams last met in the 2013 Big East Tournament
Aug 31, 2015, 4:44 PM EDT
Indiana dismissed the forward after his second alcohol-related incident.
Aug 31, 2015, 4:35 PM EDT
Cheick Diallo is still waiting to hear from the NCAA Eligibility Center.
Aug 31, 2015, 2:05 PM EDT
Frank Jackson will make his college decision on Tuesday.
Aug 31, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Rawle Alkins is one of the best players to come out of New York in years.
Aug 31, 2015, 11:20 AM EDT
Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan seems to be taking things slowly when it comes to deciding his future.
Aug 31, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
Texas native Marques Bolden is focusing on seven schools.
Aug 31, 2015, 9:05 AM EDT
Rick Pitino gives some candid thoughts on Louisville and Puerto Rico.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:52 PM EDT
With Monte’ Morris being a junior and Nick Noskowiak leaving the program, Iowa State needed a point guard in the 2016 class.
Aug 30, 2015, 8:41 PM EDT
These games against seasoned competition will help Michigan State in the tough Big Ten this season.
Aug 30, 2015, 7:27 PM EDT
Gbinije averaged 7.3 points and 2.1 rebounds per game at Afrobasket.
Aug 30, 2015, 6:01 PM EDT
Hill led the team in minutes played last season, and it’s been tough to keep him out of the gym this summer despite attempts to get him to spend some time resting.
Aug 30, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Notre Dame has a bouncy freshman guard in Rex Pflueger.
Aug 30, 2015, 1:05 PM EDT
Reid Travis is looking like a potential go-to scorer for the Cardinal this season after some strong outings in Europe.
Aug 30, 2015, 10:50 AM EDT
Colorado State is having a rough go of getting great programs to play in their building.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
Scottie Lindsey put one on a defender during Northwestern’s trip to Spain.
Aug 30, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
According to the New York Post, Morton will go back to teaching full-time.
- Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan makes another statement wavering on potential retirement 0
- Cody Zeller, Indiana president speak out against recent athlete legal issues 0
- Five-star 2016 combo guard cuts list to four 0
- Xavier, Mount St. Joseph to launch the ‘Lauren Hill Tip-Off Classic’ 0
- Tai Wynyard: ‘I will be coming to UK in December’ 0
- Tom Izzo, 30 second shot clocks, and why zone presses will be more popular this year 1
- Kentucky lands a commitment from four-star 2016 forward 0
- Blue Ribbon announces their preseason all-american team (3)
- Syracuse legend to undergo surgery on a brain tumor this week (2)
- Wake Forest dismissed senior point guard for rules violation (1)
- Is Louisville’s non-conference schedule weak by design? (1)
- 10 year old Ohio State fan worried heart surgery would make him love Michigan (1)