Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EST
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:04 AM EST
This is the first win that the American has landed over a ranked team.
Dec 18, 2014, 12:00 AM EST
Dawson’s injury occurred on the same night that freshman Javon Bess made his regular season debut for the Spartans.
Dec 17, 2014, 10:33 PM EST
Copes played in just four games this season due to injury.
Dec 17, 2014, 10:07 PM EST
The best part is that it was very much intentional
Dec 17, 2014, 9:20 PM EST
Delaware State’s Amere May scored more points than anyone in college basketball has this season.
Dec 17, 2014, 8:19 PM EST
With Lavon Long and Brett Bisping now sidelined, the Saints are without their two best rebounders.
Dec 17, 2014, 6:55 PM EST
Defense and turnovers will be the keys for Texas when Big 12 play begins.
Dec 17, 2014, 5:56 PM EST
After shooting 40.7% from the field and 29.4% from three as a sophomore, Anderson’s off to a hot start for the sixth-ranked Cavaliers.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:26 PM EST
With these dismissals Dayton has no eligible players taller than 6-foot-6.
Dec 17, 2014, 4:00 PM EST
This may be the most interesting night of hoops this week.
Dec 17, 2014, 3:44 PM EST
What changes will Kansas make to get better by March?
Dec 17, 2014, 2:30 PM EST
They are so short-handed that even the head coach is participating in practices.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:53 PM EST
Treadwell was accused of assaulting a member of the women’s team.
Dec 17, 2014, 1:00 PM EST
DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell broke his right hand in a win over DePaul.
Dec 17, 2014, 11:16 AM EST
The Shockers miss Cleanthony Early, but how much will this hurt them in the long-term?
Dec 17, 2014, 10:33 AM EST
This is one of the most surprising posterizeds we’ve seen this year.
Dec 17, 2014, 8:00 AM EST
Michigan State lost a lot of talent and experience from a title contender last season, but they’ve remained a top 25 team thanks to tremendous three-point shooting.
Dec 17, 2014, 7:00 AM EST
Who doesn’t love buzzer-beaters, especially when they’re from half court?
Dec 17, 2014, 12:58 AM EST
That’s one heartbreaking way to lose a game.
Late Night Snacks: Wichita State mounts furious comeback on Alabama, Myles Turner has big night for Texas
Dec 16, 2014, 11:55 PM EST
Myles Turner has a monster night.
- Chase for 180: So far, so good for Virginia’s Justin Anderson 0
- New Year’s Resolutions: Kansas Jayhawks 1
- Wichita State’s offensive struggles highlighted by come-from-behind win vs. Alabama 1
- Michigan State’s efficient three-point shooting is key for 2014-15 success 0
- No. 11 Wichita State rallies from 11 down to beat Alabama thanks to Van Vleet (VIDEO) 0
- The Ten Most Important Midseason Additions 0
- Player of the Year Power Rankings: New faces are popping up in our top ten 0
- Dana Altman says Oregon’s hands up, don’t shoot protest not ‘appropriate time’ (20)
- Gregg Marshall writes to Wichita State students after seeing empty seats in student section (PHOTO) (7)
- Report: David Robinson’s son will be preferred walk-on at Duke in 2015-16 (VIDEO) (5)
- Self says No. 10 Kansas is ‘not good right now’, and that should scare you (4)
- West Virginia’s Bob Huggins torches Marshall after coach calls Huggs ‘afraid’ (4)