Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jun 30, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
One of the best passers in the Class of 2016, Howard Washington, committed to Butler on Tuesday.
Jun 30, 2015, 3:35 PM EDT
Rick Barnes spoke publicly for the first time about accusations levied against Texas.
Jun 30, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
A very weak class has some decent guards.
Jun 30, 2015, 1:48 PM EDT
Sindarius Thornwell and TeMarcus Blanton both underwent surgery this offseason.
Jun 30, 2015, 11:55 AM EDT
Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum led the way for the Americans.
Jun 30, 2015, 11:26 AM EDT
Cal’s name seems to always pop up in the NBA.
Jun 30, 2015, 10:47 AM EDT
It will be expanded into a full-length movie.
Jun 30, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
It’s fun to watch Tacko Fall dominate high school competition.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:05 PM EDT
Maverick Rowan is reportedly focused on three schools.
Jun 29, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
UCF is losing its third-leading scorer from last season to transfer.
Jun 29, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
Xavier landed a three-star forward on Monday.
Jun 29, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
Former Iowa State head coach Fred Hoiberg returned to Hilton Coliseum to give one final pre-game speech before a fantasy camp.
Jun 29, 2015, 4:52 PM EDT
It should not be a surprise who the best player from this class ended up being.
Jun 29, 2015, 2:30 PM EDT
Tony Hawk approves this court.
Jun 29, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Ryan has never finished below fourth in the Big Ten.
Jun 29, 2015, 12:45 PM EDT
Mullin has completely turned over the St. John’s roster.
Jun 29, 2015, 11:27 AM EDT
Knight’s most famous outburst may be lost to history.
Jun 29, 2015, 10:26 AM EDT
There are 22 total players participating in the trials.
Jun 29, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Steve Alford now has a pair of 2017 commitments.
Jun 28, 2015, 10:01 PM EDT
This is a very well thought-out statement from Martin.
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