Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:20 PM EDT
Indiana will take on the SMU, Louisville, Georgetown, Butler and Pittsburgh before the New Year.
Aug 29, 2014, 8:31 PM EDT
Rashad McCants claimed UNC steered him into phony classes.
Aug 29, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
The 6-foot-2 guard has 30 days to appeal the decision.
Aug 29, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
According to a report on Friday, a Kentucky sophomore earned a scholarship.
Aug 29, 2014, 4:45 PM EDT
Marcus Lewis defeated Cory Jefferson and Adreian Payne in the college slam dunk contest in April
Aug 29, 2014, 2:40 PM EDT
Dee Brown, a member of Illinois’ national runner-up team in 2005, would love to see Brunson in an Illinois uniform.
Aug 29, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
News and notes from around the world of college basketball.
Aug 29, 2014, 11:40 AM EDT
Mitch McGary discusses the circumstances that led to his early departure.
Aug 29, 2014, 10:49 AM EDT
The teams expected by many to finish in the top five will all face each other twice in 2014-15.
Aug 29, 2014, 9:36 AM EDT
Zach Johnson was a player the Eagles could have used to add some depth to their backcourt.
Aug 28, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
Four Pac-12 schools remain in the running for the services of the former Arizona commit.
Aug 28, 2014, 9:03 PM EDT
Drew Edwards’ relationship with Providence head coach Ed Cooley was one reason why he chose PC.
Aug 28, 2014, 8:13 PM EDT
Esa Ahmad’s list includes Ohio State and two other Big Ten programs.
Aug 28, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
Diamond Stone has cut his list to five schools, but just one has also offered friend Malik Newman.
Aug 28, 2014, 6:10 PM EDT
6-foot-10 forward/center Kavell Bigby-Williams would have given the Bobcats some additional size in the paint.
Aug 28, 2014, 4:49 PM EDT
Trayvon Reed, who was dismissed from the Maryland program following his arrest on multiple charges earlier this summer, will enroll at Auburn in December.
Aug 28, 2014, 3:43 PM EDT
There are already five players on the team Galemmo coached that have committed to high major programs.
Aug 28, 2014, 2:30 PM EDT
He deserved it after the season his Eagle team had.
Aug 28, 2014, 1:01 PM EDT
There’s now a reason why Charleston couldn’t hire their most famous alum.
Aug 28, 2014, 12:02 PM EDT
He’s only been at DePaul for four years.
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- College Basketball Talk’s Recruiting Roundup 0
- Former Michigan center discusses hasty departure for the NBA (VIDEO) 0
- Five-star 2015 center trims list to five 1
- College of Charleston coaching search takes another turn 0
- Rivals releases new rankings for the Class of 2015 0
- Will Bill Self and Kansas play small-ball this season? 2
- In his first day of recruiting, Bruce Pearl lands Auburn a four-star forward (4)
- DePaul’s Purnell loses fifth recruit that signed letter of intent (3)
- Former Ole Miss star Marshall Henderson getting pro tryout in Italy (2)
- Will Bill Self and Kansas play small-ball this season? (2)
- Report: Ex-Spartan forward headed to Ohio (1)