Skip to content

Picking Winners: Why I think St. Louis will upset Louisville in the Sweet 16

Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT

Mike McCall Jr.

I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.

Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.

In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.

The team that’s No. 1? VCU.

St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.

On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.

And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?

The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.

St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.

Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.

Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.

But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.

You heard it here first.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

Latest Posts
  1. DePaul adds junior college guard Darrick Wood

    Apr 23, 2014, 5:23 PM EDT

    Oliver Purnell AP

    Former St. John’s commit Darrick Wood verbally committed to attend DePaul on Wednesday.

  2. Kentucky’s Dakari Johnson to return for sophomore season

    Apr 23, 2014, 4:22 PM EDT

    Dakari Johnson AP

    After playing well in Kentucky’s run to the national title game, Dakari Johnson has decided to return for his sophomore season.

  3. LSU freshman Jordan Mickey returning for his sophomore season

    Apr 23, 2014, 3:52 PM EDT

    jordan mickey AP

    LSU should have the pieces to be a tournament team in 2014-2015.

  4. Report: Richard Pitino lands fifth commitment first Minnesota class

    Apr 23, 2014, 2:54 PM EDT

    2014 NIT Championship Getty Images

    Minnesota landed a commitment from a 6-foot-11 three-star recruit.

  5. Arnaud William Adala Moto to transfer from Wake Forest

    Apr 23, 2014, 2:28 PM EDT

    Wake Forest v Maryland Wake Forest v Maryland

    Adala Moto was a top 150 recruit in the class of 2012.

  6. Arizona-signee Kadeem Allen named JuCo Player of the Year

    Apr 23, 2014, 1:58 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Allen will be one of the keys to Arizona’s season. Click to see why.

  7. Julius Randle visits with the Dan Patrick Show (VIDEO)

    Apr 23, 2014, 12:34 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP Photo

    Randle talks favorite NBA players and the one-and-done rule.

  8. Alex Poythress is returning to Kentucky for his junior year

    Apr 23, 2014, 11:49 AM EDT

    poythress2 Getty Images

    Kentucky got some good news on Wednesday afternoon.

  9. Report: UTEP head coach Tim Floyd emerges as a candidate for Missouri job

    Apr 22, 2014, 11:08 PM EDT

    AP AP

    The UTEP coach is now a candidate to replace Frank Haith at Missouri.

  10. Former Marquette commit Marial Shayok picks Virginia

    Apr 22, 2014, 10:10 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Virginia got its fourth commit on Tuesday night.

  11. UConn’s journey to the 2014 National Title (VIDEO)

    Apr 22, 2014, 9:09 PM EDT

    UConn AP

    A look back on UConn’s second title in four years.

  12. Southern and head coach Roman Banks agree to new deal

    Apr 22, 2014, 8:05 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    The Southern coach is receiving a contract extension.

  13. Oregon point guard Johnathan Loyd practices with football team

    Apr 22, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Loyd is converting from point guard to wide receiver.

  14. John Egbunu becomes fifth player to transfer from South Florida

    Apr 22, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT

    Getty Images Getty Images

    The Bulls announced the fifth departure this spring.

  15. Andrew Wiggins is the most searched athlete in Kansas … and Kentucky

    Apr 22, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT

    AP AP

    Andrew Wiggins is the most searched athlete in two states, according to a recent study.

  16. Auburn will not appeal Bruce Pearl’s show-cause penalty

    Apr 22, 2014, 2:43 PM EDT

    AP Photo AP

    Auburn will accept the punishment that has been given to Pearl by the NCAA.

Featured video

Derrick Gordon says 'Why not me?'