Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 1, 2014, 6:55 PM EDT
East Carolina is on the board in 2015.
Sep 1, 2014, 5:28 PM EDT
A five-star 2015 forward cut his list to five schools on Monday.
Sep 1, 2014, 4:20 PM EDT
Indiana will have to remain patient with a freshman that is currently battling an ankle injury.
Sep 1, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT
You need a very understanding wife to get away with this.
Sep 1, 2014, 2:20 PM EDT
Tennessee has one scholarship left available for 2015.
Sep 1, 2014, 12:54 PM EDT
Find out why Saint Louis and Missouri are on the list along with the likes of Arizona, Kentucky, Duke and Kansas.
Sep 1, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
Izzo spoke on the phone with the caddie for 15 minutes.
Sep 1, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
Bolden is a 6-foot-9 center from Texas
Aug 31, 2014, 11:43 PM EDT
The second team All-MAC selection scored eight points in Senegal’s win over Puerto Rico.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
Bruce Weber now has three verbal commitments in the Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:05 PM EDT
5-foot-11 point guard Glynn Watson becomes Nebraska’s second 2015 commitment.
Aug 31, 2014, 8:02 PM EDT
Slender forward Brandon Ingram is one of the best perimeter prospects in the Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
Tennessee is on the board in 2015 due to the addition of a versatile 6-foot-5 forward.
Aug 31, 2014, 5:23 PM EDT
Roy Williams challenged his players in the Bahamas, and the accepted it on Saturday afternoon.
Aug 31, 2014, 3:39 PM EDT
Malik Newman is the No. 3 overall recruit, according to Rivals.
Aug 31, 2014, 1:35 PM EDT
The Robinson brothers are the first two commits in Quinnipiac’s Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
The Cougars have been without a head coach since Aug. 5.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:17 AM EDT
Bruce Pearl has landed five commitments in 10 days.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
More dunks from one of the best all-star games of the summer.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Connor McCaffery was expected to play for his father, and he announced the intention to do so Saturday.
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