Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Mar 31, 2015, 1:47 AM EDT
Barnes spent the last 17 seasons at Texas.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:10 PM EDT
UConn, Notre Dame, South Carolina and Maryland make up the 2015 women’s Final Four.
Mar 30, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
Some great names highlight this list.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:24 PM EDT
Williams was the leading scorer and rebounder for the Tigers this season.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
Nebraska forward Walter Pitchford is giving up basketball for his senior season.
Mar 30, 2015, 9:00 PM EDT
Xavier is losing a reserve guard to transfer.
Mar 30, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
Utah Valley has found its new head coach.
Mar 30, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Chris Mullin will get a chance to restore glory at St. John’s.
Mar 30, 2015, 6:05 PM EDT
George Mason makes a move to hire a new head coach.
Mar 30, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Who were the best players in the second-weekend of the NCAA tournament?
Mar 30, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
Cincinnati gets Mick Cronin back.
Mar 30, 2015, 3:40 PM EDT
Harrell and Rozier were both expected to head to the NBA.
Mar 30, 2015, 3:07 PM EDT
Izzo became the first coach to lead three teams seeded No. 5 or lower to the Final Four.
Mar 30, 2015, 2:41 PM EDT
Lee will be a priority target during the offseason.
Mar 30, 2015, 2:22 PM EDT
The Tar Heels should return every piece to its rotation next season, but what happens with the NCAA inquiry will have an impact as well.
Mar 30, 2015, 1:50 PM EDT
Dekker was the best player in the second weekend of the event.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:42 PM EDT
There isn’t anything all that wrong with the AP’s list. The first team is perfect.
Mar 30, 2015, 12:19 PM EDT
If you need to place a bet, here are the lines you’ll be working with.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:46 AM EDT
Neubauer was with Eastern Kentucky for 10 years and John Beilein for nine seasons before that.
Mar 30, 2015, 10:05 AM EDT
R.J. Hunter and his father/coach became a sensation during the tournament.
- Frank Kaminsky, Jahlil Okafor highlight five Wooden Award finalists 0
- 2015 NCAA Tournament All-Second Weekend Team 2
- While a major question remains unanswered, No. 4 North Carolina can be special in 2015-16 2
- Tournament darling R.J. Hunter is heading to the NBA 3
- Texas freshman Myles Turner declares for the NBA Draft 6
- The Final Four is set, and it’s going to be insane 23
- No. 7 Michigan State reaches the Final Four for the seventh time under Izzo 15
- Andrew Harrison’s late free throws send No. 1 Kentucky to the Final Four (86)
- Kentucky responds to Daxter Miles Jr.’s pregame comments (30)
- Updated tournament records: Big Ten teams make up half of Final Four (27)
- The Final Four is set, and it’s going to be insane (23)
- West Virginia freshman on Kentucky: ‘They’re going to be 36-1′ (21)