Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 4, 2015, 10:33 PM EDT
Cheick Diallo was rated as the fifth-best player in the Class of 2015.
Aug 4, 2015, 8:58 PM EDT
Jarvis Johnson was not cleared to play at Minnesota back in mid-June.
Aug 4, 2015, 7:38 PM EDT
The four-star point guard cut his list in half on Tuesday night.
Aug 4, 2015, 7:03 PM EDT
The games will be played August 11-16.
Aug 4, 2015, 5:24 PM EDT
The lawsuit stems from an alleged incident back in March of 2014.
Aug 4, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
The 6-foot-9 power forward becomes the third four-star recruit in the Class of 2016 to commit to the Cavaliers.
Aug 4, 2015, 3:01 PM EDT
Both teams will be ranked in the preseason top 15 this season.
Aug 4, 2015, 1:52 PM EDT
Xavier Stapleton is sitting out this season after transferring from Louisiana Tech.
Aug 4, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
The Miners have a lot to replace next season.
Aug 4, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
West is one of the best mid-major players in the country.
Aug 4, 2015, 11:08 AM EDT
Those are some serious hops.
Aug 4, 2015, 10:03 AM EDT
This kid isn’t even a sophomore yet.
Aug 3, 2015, 11:59 PM EDT
There are two glaring weaknesses to Kris Dunn’s game. Here’s how he’s gone about trying to fix them this summer.
Aug 3, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
A cool documentary-style approach to the Under Armour Association in preparation for the Elite 24.
Aug 3, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Nebraska is hoping a four-game trip in Spain helps with their freshmen.
Aug 3, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Baylor is losing a reserve forward to transfer.
Aug 3, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
Mamadi Diakite, a four-star forward, could decide between three schools soon, per a report.
Aug 3, 2015, 2:40 PM EDT
Tony Carr is a four-star point guard that picked Penn State over Maryland, SMU and Providence.
Aug 3, 2015, 12:29 PM EDT
The investigation was conducted by an outside law firm and paid for by the university.
Aug 3, 2015, 12:05 PM EDT
Alkins might be the best player from New York City since Lance Stephenson.
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