Mar 19, 2013, 2:35 PM EDT
I’m going to have a post up tomorrow explaining how and why I made all of my picks, but since I’ve been getting a lot of questions about it, I’m going to take a minute to get into why I think St. Louis will knock off the tournament’s top seed in the Sweet 16.
Louisville is the best defensive team in the country, according to Kenpom.com. They’re actually the most efficiency defensive team since Kenpom started keeping track of such things. That defense is built around their pressure: the Cardinals want to defend for 94 feet, tiring their opponents out, forcing turnovers, and turning those turnovers into easy baskets so they can jump right back into their press. They don’t always defend in the full court, but even when Louisville drops back into their 2-3 zone, they are looking to pressure the ball and force turnovers.
In fact, Louisville is No. 2 in the country in defensive turnover percentage.
The team that’s No. 1? VCU.
St. Louis is 2-0 against the Rams this season. The first time they matched up, the Billikens ran Shaka Smart and company out of Chafeitz Arena, winning 76-62 in a game that wasn’t even that close. On Sunday, St. Louis got the Rams again, winning 62-56 in Brooklyn for the Atlantic 10 tournament title. In those two games, the Billikens committed just 26 turnovers in 122 total possessions, a turnover percentage of 21.3%, well below the 28.7% that VCU averages for the season.
On the season, St. Louis is one of the top 50 teams in the country at protecting the ball, and that includes the stretch at the start of the season when starting point guard Kwamain Mitchell was out with a broken foot. In other words, the Billikens have the kind of veteran back court that has proven they don’t get flustered when having to deal with the kind of assaulting pressure that looks to do nothing more than turn turnovers into easy baskets.
And if Louisville isn’t getting easy baskets, are they going to be able to score on St. Louis?
The Billikens are seventh nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t have a ton of size in the paint, but they are disciplined, they don’t give up open looks, they’re pretty good at forcing turnovers and they don’t give up offensive rebounds. If there is one issue that Louisville has repeatedly shown this season, it’s that they struggle to score against a set defense.
St. Louis doesn’t turn the ball over. They won’t let Louisville get out in transition. They are a nightmare to try and score against in the half court. And, frankly, they’re not too bad on the offensive end of the floor. Kenpom ranks them 58th in adjusted efficiency despite the fact they are 287th in offensive rebounding percentage, and they have the kind of balanced attack where you cannot simply game-plan to take away one guy. Build your defense around stopping Mitchell, Cody Ellis gets you. Build your game-plan around stopping both of them, Dwayne Evans goes off for 20 and 10.
Put it all together, and the Cardinals are ripe for the Billiken pickin’.
Now, that doesn’t mean that Louisville won’t win this game. Hell, they’ll probably be favored if this game actually does happen.
But everyone and their brother is picking Louisville to win the national title. If you are looking for an upset that has a real chance of happening, one that could all but lock up a win in your office pool, this is it.
You heard it here first.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 27, 2014, 9:39 PM EDT
Despite not being included among the five official visits, Indiana and UNLV remain options for Zimmerman.
Jul 27, 2014, 5:41 PM EDT
Nearly three months after breaking a backboard during a pickup game, the rising junior took out another one this weekend.
Jul 27, 2014, 3:45 PM EDT
Chase Jeter is down to Arizona, Duke, UCLA and UNLV.
Jul 27, 2014, 3:05 PM EDT
Ray Smith tore his ACL earlier this month.
Jul 27, 2014, 1:35 PM EDT
Ed O’Bannon’s lead attorney didn’t even know who he was when he first met him.
Jul 27, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
It’s been a summer of viral dunks for the 6-foot-2 recruit
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Jul 27, 2014, 10:29 AM EDT
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Jul 27, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Skal Labissiere may want to go to Europe. That does not mean Europe wants him.
AAU Nationals Saturday Recap: Raymond Spalding has upside, Trent Forrest and Gary Trent, Jr. perform at a high level
Jul 27, 2014, 8:00 AM EDT
AAU Nationals and the Super Showcase continued on Saturday in Louisville.
Jul 26, 2014, 6:34 PM EDT
North Carolina is the latest school making the positive step of looking to help its former athletes obtain their college degrees.
Jul 26, 2014, 4:54 PM EDT
Meeks has lost nearly 50 pounds.
Jul 26, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
With Saint Louis losing five experienced seniors, the incoming freshman class could be expected to contribute immediately this season.
Jul 26, 2014, 1:42 PM EDT
Two top five players in the Class of 2016 were sent home.
Jul 26, 2014, 12:29 PM EDT
Brown also mentioned plans of taking an unofficial visit to UCLA following adidas Nations.
Jul 26, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
USA Basketball has a lot of talent in the building this week for the U17 World Championship camp.
AAU Nationals Friday Recap: Event moves to Louisville, Bruce Brown plays well, Noah Dickerson updates recruitment
Jul 26, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
AAU Nationals and Super Showcase continued on Friday in Louisville.
Jul 25, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
Florida commit KeVaughn Allen had a great week at Peach Jam.
Jul 25, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Former Delaware guard Jarvis Threatt is turning pro after being dismissed from the program in June.
Jul 25, 2014, 4:47 PM EDT
Didn’t believe Niang when he stated that he’d reshaped his body? Here’s visual evidence that he did.
Jul 25, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
New York City guard Rawle Alkins is one player to monitor in the Class of 2016.
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