Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 5, 2015, 9:20 AM EDT
Markelle Fultz is one the best guard prospects in the country.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Mathiang’s playing on an Australian team that includes the likes of Peter Hooley and Hugh Greenwood.
Jul 4, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
The 6-foot-9 Henry averaged 6.0 points and 3.6 rebounds per game last season.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:59 PM EDT
Jalen Brunson led the way with 30 points for the United States, which plays Croatia Sunday.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Miles Bridges is one of the better scorers in the 2016 class.
Jul 4, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
The US is taking on the hosts in the semifinals, with the winner getting Croatia on Sunday.
Jul 4, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
Four players from 2015 NCAA tournament programs are trying out for the Canadian national team.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Kansas won its debut overseas this summer as Wayne Selden had a big outing.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:05 AM EDT
UConn landed a quality guard in the Class of 2016.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Given Oregon’s many perimeter options, minutes were likely to be at a premium for Rorie in 2015-16.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
The top four players remain the same.
Jul 3, 2015, 9:19 PM EDT
The redshirt junior has not played since January 2014.
Jul 3, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
The rising sophomore was originally being blocked from transferring to 55 schools.
Jul 3, 2015, 6:08 PM EDT
Ohio State begins its 2017 class with a local product.
Jul 3, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Jalen Brunson led USA Basketball with 17 points.
Jul 3, 2015, 2:10 PM EDT
A lot of unranked players made their way into the top five in a surprisingly deep class.
Jul 3, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Jalen Brunson led four Americans in double figures with 17 points.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:30 AM EDT
Minnesota is one of four schools the 6-foot-10 center is reportedly considering.
Jul 3, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
The lone school to host the Georgia native on an official visit is considered to be the favorite in this recruiting race.
Jul 2, 2015, 7:40 PM EDT
Oregon still has a date to fill (December 29), which the school expects to be filled by an in-state opponent.
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players in the Class of 2008? 1
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players in the Class of 2007? 0
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2006? 0
- Re-ranking recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2005? 1
- Re-ranking recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2004? 2
- Bo Ryan to retire from Wisconsin after next season 4
- Who are the names to watch for the 2016 NBA Draft? 2
- Bo Ryan to retire from Wisconsin after next season (4)
- South Carolina coach Frank Martin releases statement, asks for confederate flag removal (3)
- UCLA lands four-star center, second 2017 commitment (3)
- So what happened to the chair Bobby Knight threw in 1985? (3)
- Flooding from storm damages Denver’s practice floor (PHOTOS) (3)