Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 29, 2014, 11:45 PM EDT
Long Beach State has four commits in 2015.
Sep 29, 2014, 9:50 PM EDT
Pauley Pavilion has gone under plenty of changes in the last few seasons and dealt with a flooding issue several months back.
Sep 29, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
UNLV continues to tap into the local powerhouse.
Sep 29, 2014, 7:47 PM EDT
All four commits are ranked in the Rivals150.
Sep 29, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
Spoiler: Kentucky is going to dunk a lot this season.
Sep 29, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
A decision could come within the next three weeks.
Sep 29, 2014, 5:15 PM EDT
John Calipari’s loaded roster has required a new position on the Kentucky staff.
Sep 29, 2014, 3:54 PM EDT
Logwood had previously signed with Auburn.
Sep 29, 2014, 3:13 PM EDT
Spoelstra is now the head coach of the Miami Heat.
Sep 29, 2014, 2:36 PM EDT
New head coach Mike Rhoades is from the Shaka Smart coaching tree.
Sep 29, 2014, 1:36 PM EDT
Will this hurt Cuonzo Martin’s program?
Sep 29, 2014, 12:47 PM EDT
Deville Smith has completed the tough task of playing for four different schools in four seasons.
Sep 29, 2014, 11:53 AM EDT
This provides more context into why Smart did what he did.
Sep 29, 2014, 11:05 AM EDT
There is only one truly strange ranking in this top 25.
Sep 28, 2014, 11:40 PM EDT
The Yellow Jackets will have new uniforms as they look to account for the loss of four of their top five scorers from last season.
Sep 28, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
After having to worry about rehabbing from two hip surgeries last summer, Omar Calhoun could simply work on his game this summer.
Sep 28, 2014, 8:36 PM EDT
The task of rebuilding the USC program will be a difficult one, but these two forwards will help matters next season.
Sep 28, 2014, 7:05 PM EDT
The Gamecocks are looking to add even more depth to their front court in the Class of 2015.
Sep 28, 2014, 5:04 PM EDT
If the Red Storm are to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001, their guards will have to be as good as they say they are.
Sep 28, 2014, 3:28 PM EDT
The junior forward started 26 games last season for the Blue Devils.
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