Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 23, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
After a summer away from campus, senior center Joshua Smith is back at Georgetown.
Aug 23, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
Texas native D.J. Hogg is highly coveted because of his shooting ability and he’s set three official visits.
Aug 23, 2014, 1:40 PM EDT
Texas Southern has some more intriguing transfers entering the picture this season.
Aug 23, 2014, 12:30 PM EDT
The top-40 recruit will take his first of five visits in September.
Aug 23, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
What happens when you have high definition cameras and fantastic dunkers? Awesomeness.
Aug 23, 2014, 10:45 AM EDT
Minnesota picked up another commitment in the 2015 class on Friday night.
Aug 23, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
Matthew Moyer is the newest member of the Syracuse Orange.
Aug 22, 2014, 11:30 PM EDT
2015 guard Eric Davis had a strong summer and is one of the better guards in the country.
Aug 22, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT
Louisville is updating its floor with the move to the ACC.
Aug 22, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
Auburn made a recruiting move on Friday night with the addition of Danjel Purifoy.
Aug 22, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Missouri has a fair amount of quality teams on its non-conference schedule.
Aug 22, 2014, 6:10 PM EDT
An Oregon State incoming guard is improving in the hospital after collapsing earlier in the week.
Aug 22, 2014, 5:05 PM EDT
College Basketball Talk’s recruiting column explores the week’s topics.
Aug 22, 2014, 3:20 PM EDT
Dominic Woodson is now officially a Tennessee Volunteer.
Aug 22, 2014, 2:37 PM EDT
Aaron Brown averaged 9.9 points per game and shot 39 percent from three last season, and he’ll be eligible to play immediately.
Aug 22, 2014, 1:28 PM EDT
Having stated their intention of appealing the ruling in the Ed O’Bannon lawsuit, the NCAA filed a notice of appeal on Thursday.
Aug 22, 2014, 12:07 PM EDT
Five-star center Tyler Davis becomes Texas A&M’s first commitment, and he’s an important addition for Billy Kennedy.
Aug 22, 2014, 11:15 AM EDT
Austin Hatch, who saw his first action in a Michigan uniform on Saturday, discussed his return to the court on The Today Show.
Aug 22, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
Upon completion, Hinkle Fieldhouse will have a brand new look while preserving the building’s storied past.
Aug 22, 2014, 9:44 AM EDT
The conference tournament will now span five days, with there being a doubleheader on Wednesday, March 11 (11 seed vs. 14 seed, 12 seed vs. 13 seed).
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