Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EST
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Mar 8, 2014, 1:00 AM EST
A recap of Friday night’s action, including Harvard wrapping up the Ivy League crown
Mar 7, 2014, 10:22 PM EST
Siyani Chambers and company played much better in the rematch, beating Yale to earn a third consecutive NCAA tournament berth.
Mar 7, 2014, 9:38 PM EST
Meet Harvard, the first team to wrap up a spot in the 2014 NCAA tournament.
Mar 7, 2014, 7:15 PM EST
Harvard looks to wrap up its third consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament.
Mar 7, 2014, 6:25 PM EST
South Carolina head coach Frank Martin met with the media to address the actions that led to his one-game suspension
Mar 7, 2014, 5:03 PM EST
UCSB issues a statement regarding Thursday’s incident in which a fan confronted Hawaii head coach Gib Arnold on the court
Mar 7, 2014, 3:43 PM EST
No. 2 Wichita State moves to 32-0, with their big men performing well in their “Arch Madness” opener.
2014 Summit League Tournament Preview: North Dakota State looks to avenge last year’s title-game loss
Mar 7, 2014, 3:00 PM EST
North Dakota State is looking to avenge last season’s Summit League title game loss by winning the 2014 Summit League Conference Tournament after winning the regular season crown.
Mar 7, 2014, 2:27 PM EST
Winthrop’s Andre Smith provides the latest buzzer-beater, knocking off Big South regular season champ High Point.
Mar 7, 2014, 1:36 PM EST
Longtime Syracuse fan receives a special present eight days prior to her 100th birthday
Mar 7, 2014, 12:26 PM EST
A look at the 2009 Big East quarterfinal between UConn and Syracuse, nearly five years after the game was played.
Mar 7, 2014, 12:00 PM EST
It’s no longer a league dominated by Vermont, Albany and Boston U. Perhaps this bodes well for Steve Pikiell’s squad.
Mar 7, 2014, 10:40 AM EST
Five conference tournaments in action, and Harvard looks to punch its ticket to the Big Dance.
Mar 7, 2014, 9:21 AM EST
Going to be a busy week for all the bubble teams, too.
Mar 7, 2014, 8:50 AM EST
Duke vs. North Carolina highlights a spate of ranked matchups, not to mention teams will start snagging tickets to the Big dance as well.
Mar 7, 2014, 2:54 AM EST
Wildcats stay in contention for a No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament, while a Southland shootout takes game of night honors.
Mar 7, 2014, 1:13 AM EST
Hawkeyes sure didn’t mind conceding open looks on Thursday.
Mar 7, 2014, 1:05 AM EST
There are 11 days left until Selection Sunday. Every morning from now until the bracket comes out, we’ll help you get caught up on the happenings with impact on the bubble from the night before.
Mar 7, 2014, 12:32 AM EST
Loyola-Illinois got the hang of the MVC tournament in a hurry.
- Harvard wraps up third consecutive NCAA tournament berth (VIDEO) 0
- Weekend Preview: The regular season comes to a close 1
- For the first time in months, No. 22 Michigan State and Keith Appling look healthy 4
- Senior starters once again carry No. 15 Cincinnati 0
- Doug McDermott’s career still missing most important part: His One Shining Moment 0
- Bryce Cotton, Providence’s marathon man, looking to lead the Friars on a run to the NCAA tournament 0
- Bubble Banter: Colorado, Dayton the day’s biggest winners 1
- Undefeated regular season says all we need to know about No. 2 Wichita State (9)
- No. 7 Syracuse falls to Georgia Tech in a shocking home loss (9)
- Finally at full strength, Michigan State sleepwalks through loss to Illinois (6)
- Kentucky hits rock bottom, loses at South Carolina (6)
- College Basketball Talk’s latest Top 25 (6)