Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Sep 16, 2014, 11:15 PM EDT
The tallest player in high school basketball has some visits set.
Sep 16, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
Missouri will move on with team-related activities without two freshmen following an arrest.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:15 PM EDT
Arizona State has cut ties with a junior college forward and 2015 recruit was who arrested over the weekend.
Sep 16, 2014, 8:15 PM EDT
Bo Ryan shows he’s a big man on campus at Wisconsin following his Final Four appearance.
Sep 16, 2014, 7:15 PM EDT
Jalen Rose says that former teammates Chris Webber needs to apologize.
Sep 16, 2014, 6:06 PM EDT
The Longhorns pull in a commitment from a good guard in 2015.
Sep 16, 2014, 5:46 PM EDT
Kevin Stallings has earned four commitments in 2015.
Sep 16, 2014, 4:44 PM EDT
The five-star recruit decommitted from Louisville, and what it has to do with shoe companies.
Sep 16, 2014, 2:55 PM EDT
There are also a limited number of ugly road weeks.
Sep 16, 2014, 11:52 AM EDT
Wojcik was fired with cause for allegedly abusing his players.
Sep 16, 2014, 10:54 AM EDT
Mudiays $1.2 million deal with a team in China will now be significantly supplemented.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:50 AM EDT
Have you ever seen ‘Goodfellas’? You’ll recognize one of the main players in this story.
Sep 16, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Ivan Rabb is one of the best centers in the country.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:33 PM EDT
Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney has opened it back up.
Sep 15, 2014, 10:22 PM EDT
The Bearcats added a 2015 recruit on Monday night.
Sep 15, 2014, 9:45 PM EDT
Kansas begins a two-week Boot Camp today.
Sep 15, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Shaquille Johnson is in trouble at his new home.
Sep 15, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
Things are getting interesting between the Pitinos as we get closer to the Minnesota and Louisville game.
Sep 15, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
Florida International had some bad luck over the weekend.
Sep 15, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
Charlotte head coach Alan Major has returned to the team.
- Jalen Rose believes Chris Webber should apologize for what happened at Michigan 1
- Thoughts on Antonio Blakeney, shoe companies and decommitments 0
- Top prospect in Class of 2014 signs endorsement deal with Under Armour 0
- Five-star shooting guard Antonio Blakeney decommits from Louisville 3
- Richard Pitino warns Minnesota fans not to trust his dad before Louisville opener 2
- CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UConn and Arizona land 2015 big men, 2015 commitments flying off the board 0
- USA Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski and thoughts on today’s ‘takedown’ 4
- Former Indiana guard A.J. Guyton writes an open letter to Bob Knight (6)
- USA Basketball, Mike Krzyzewski and thoughts on today’s ‘takedown’ (4)
- Big Blue Nation already camping out for Big Blue Madness? (PHOTO) (4)
- Bo Ryan hits golf balls into Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium (PHOTO) (4)
- Four-star power forward becomes Indiana’s first 2015 commitment (3)