Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EST
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Nov 26, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
He was arrested on suspicion of sexual assault.
Nov 26, 2014, 7:00 AM EST
Angry John Beilein is the best John Beilein.
Nov 26, 2014, 12:28 AM EST
Pinkston made a couple of huge plays down the stretch.
Nov 26, 2014, 12:10 AM EST
Another busy night of college hoops as the Maui semifinals wrap up and Arkansas gets a statement road win.
Nov 25, 2014, 11:50 PM EST
Maryland pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the young season as they outplayed No. 13 Iowa State for much of the game in front of a pro-Cyclone crowd in Kansas City.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s selflessness during the Maui Invitational will help No. 3 Arizona in the long run
Nov 25, 2014, 10:18 PM EST
As Arizona has struggled to find consistent offense early in the 2014-15 season, the consistency and selfless nature of sophomore forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has allowed Sean Miller to experiment with what works early.
Nov 25, 2014, 7:45 PM EST
Kansas head coach Bill Self is trying to get through to his players by changing starting lineups.
Nov 25, 2014, 6:45 PM EST
The former national champion still has the touch.
Nov 25, 2014, 5:55 PM EST
The Barclays Center Classic doubleheader will air on Friday night on NBC Sports Network.
Nov 25, 2014, 5:20 PM EST
The Friars could be depleted on the perimeter against two tough opponents.
Nov 25, 2014, 4:24 PM EST
Minnesota will take a hit to its back court with this suspension.
Nov 25, 2014, 2:58 PM EST
I hope his joke doesn’t make people ignore the fact the he really felt bad about this.
Nov 25, 2014, 2:43 PM EST
We get some good gauge games on Tuesday night.
Nov 25, 2014, 1:18 PM EST
Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor are near the top, but the rest of the top five may surprise you.
Nov 25, 2014, 12:27 PM EST
Benjamin hurt his ankle against Michigan.
Nov 25, 2014, 10:30 AM EST
Jason McManamen is trying to prove Billy Hoyle and Sidney Dean wrong.
Nov 25, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
Michigan was dominated on the glass, but the freshman forward stepped up to ice the victory.
Nov 25, 2014, 7:00 AM EST
Can a team that runs a pressing system truly be one of the nations elite?
Late Night Snacks: San Diego State and BYU engage in double OT thriller; Nova, Zona earn big wins; Indiana upset at home
Nov 25, 2014, 2:00 AM EST
A busy night of tournament and non-conference action in college hoops made for some big wins for Villanova and Arizona and a home loss for Indiana.
Nov 24, 2014, 11:51 PM EST
We knew Iowa State had a lot of offensive weapons, but with the return of some key rotation players the Cyclones look really tough.
- JayVaughn Pinkston’s block gives No. 12 Villanova a win over No. 19 Michigan (VIDEO) 0
- Maryland upsets No. 13 Iowa State as fearless freshmen mix with gritty veterans for balanced effort 1
- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s selflessness during the Maui Invitational will help No. 3 Arizona in the long run 0
- Player of the Year Power Rankings: A familiar face on top, but a few surprises behind him 0
- Ricky Doyle secures 70-63 win for No. 19 Michigan over Oregon in Legends Classic 0
- Villanova’s win is evidence of why VCU may have peaked as a basketball program 13
- Mike Brey was excited about Notre Dame’s loss because the Irish have their closer back 1
- Poll: 54 percent of people think Kentucky beats the 76ers, 54 percent of people are dumb (31)
- Villanova’s win is evidence of why VCU may have peaked as a basketball program (13)
- College Basketball Talk’s latest top 25: Kentucky reigns, but how far will Kansas, Florida slide? (5)
- Rick Pitino on blow out win: ‘We played four white guys and an Egyptian’ (4)
- After getting embarrassed by No. 1 Kentucky, where does No. 5 Kansas go from here? (3)