Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 30, 2014, 12:51 PM EDT
After averaging 16.0 points per game as a freshman, the South Plains College guard is looking to become a better lead guard guard as a sophomore.
Jul 30, 2014, 11:39 AM EDT
It’s Dayton’s third commitment from the Class of 2015
Jul 30, 2014, 11:02 AM EDT
Oregon is now left with just nine scholarship players, only two of whom saw significant minutes last season.
Jul 30, 2014, 10:00 AM EDT
Coggins will be heading back closer to his Southern California home
Jul 30, 2014, 9:25 AM EDT
Rising sophomore forward Duncan Robinson played his freshman year at Williams College in Williamstown, Massachusetts, but could be on the move for next season.
Jul 29, 2014, 10:14 PM EDT
UCLA reopened Pauley Pavilion in 2012 after $136 million worth of renovations.
Jul 29, 2014, 8:34 PM EDT
The UCLA campus became flooded on Tuesday afternoon.
Jul 29, 2014, 8:30 PM EDT
Mike Krzyzewski is entering his 40th season as a head coach.
Jul 29, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT
Doug Wojcik has been investigated twice by the College of Charleston.
Jul 29, 2014, 6:15 PM EDT
Cal told The Sporting News that he couldn’t leave behind the guys that decided to return to school. Do you buy it?
Jul 29, 2014, 5:22 PM EDT
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Jul 29, 2014, 4:27 PM EDT
Malik Monk is a dream come true for the mixtape makers.
Jul 29, 2014, 3:46 PM EDT
And now they’re considering selling it at football games.
Jul 29, 2014, 1:50 PM EDT
The Bruins will be tested by the time Pac-12 play rolls around.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:55 AM EDT
Chad Frazier was arrested back in April.
Jul 29, 2014, 11:34 AM EDT
Another surprise cut was made at the point guard spot
Jul 29, 2014, 10:12 AM EDT
Beyond the glitz and glamour of the highest levels of AAU basketball are kids fighting to land one of a few coveted scholarships.
Jul 29, 2014, 9:31 AM EDT
The procedure wasn’t know until Agau took to social media.
Jul 28, 2014, 11:30 PM EDT
Richard Pitino likes that he can feed his players now.
Jul 28, 2014, 10:00 PM EDT
Wisconsin got some pretty cool rings for making the Final Four.
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