Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 4, 2015, 10:33 PM EDT
Cheick Diallo was rated as the fifth-best player in the Class of 2015.
Aug 4, 2015, 8:58 PM EDT
Jarvis Johnson was not cleared to play at Minnesota back in mid-June.
Aug 4, 2015, 7:38 PM EDT
The four-star point guard cut his list in half on Tuesday night.
Aug 4, 2015, 7:03 PM EDT
The games will be played August 11-16.
Aug 4, 2015, 5:24 PM EDT
The lawsuit stems from an alleged incident back in March of 2014.
Aug 4, 2015, 4:45 PM EDT
The 6-foot-9 power forward becomes the third four-star recruit in the Class of 2016 to commit to the Cavaliers.
Aug 4, 2015, 3:01 PM EDT
Both teams will be ranked in the preseason top 15 this season.
Aug 4, 2015, 1:52 PM EDT
Xavier Stapleton is sitting out this season after transferring from Louisiana Tech.
Aug 4, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
The Miners have a lot to replace next season.
Aug 4, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
West is one of the best mid-major players in the country.
Aug 4, 2015, 11:08 AM EDT
Those are some serious hops.
Aug 4, 2015, 10:03 AM EDT
This kid isn’t even a sophomore yet.
Aug 3, 2015, 11:59 PM EDT
There are two glaring weaknesses to Kris Dunn’s game. Here’s how he’s gone about trying to fix them this summer.
Aug 3, 2015, 10:00 PM EDT
A cool documentary-style approach to the Under Armour Association in preparation for the Elite 24.
Aug 3, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
Nebraska is hoping a four-game trip in Spain helps with their freshmen.
Aug 3, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
Baylor is losing a reserve forward to transfer.
Aug 3, 2015, 4:50 PM EDT
Mamadi Diakite, a four-star forward, could decide between three schools soon, per a report.
Aug 3, 2015, 2:40 PM EDT
Tony Carr is a four-star point guard that picked Penn State over Maryland, SMU and Providence.
Aug 3, 2015, 12:29 PM EDT
The investigation was conducted by an outside law firm and paid for by the university.
Aug 3, 2015, 12:05 PM EDT
Alkins might be the best player from New York City since Lance Stephenson.
- Fixing his flaws: How Kris Dunn has attacked the two weaknesses in his game 0
- Five-star shooting guard focusing on ten schools 0
- Isaac Humphries is Kentucky’s insurance policy inside, but should that be concerning? 2
- Source: Isaac Humphries expected to commit to Kentucky, enroll in 2015 1
- Steady improvement turning Alize Johnson into valued Division I prospect 0
- Report: SMU’s Larry Brown up against ‘lack of coach control’ charge 1
- If the NCAA is correct, Donnie Tyndall is in big, big trouble 2
- Bruce Pearl on his time at Tennessee: ‘I ran a clean program’ (3)
- Another Division I coach loses their job in the wake of the Donnie Tyndall scandal (3)
- Marquette coaches discuss daily ‘noon ball’ tradition (VIDEO) (2)
- Isaac Humphries is Kentucky’s insurance policy inside, but should that be concerning? (2)
- Wichita State lands transfer guard from Texas A&M (2)