Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EST
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Dec 20, 2014, 7:57 PM EST
While Michigan State’s 4-for-21 night from three didn’t help matters, Texas Southern shot better than 53 percent from the field.
Dec 20, 2014, 7:18 PM EST
Burton was one of two sophomores to leave the Marquette program earlier this month.
Dec 20, 2014, 5:46 PM EST
Kentucky completely embarrassed UCLA on Saturday.
Dec 20, 2014, 5:04 PM EST
Mitchell Wilbekin could miss up to six games, and classmates Cornelius Hudson and Rondale Watson missed Saturday’s game for conduct detrimental to the team.
Dec 20, 2014, 4:41 PM EST
It’s already been a busy day in college hoops, with two buzzer-beaters and two ranked teams already going down.
Dec 20, 2014, 4:31 PM EST
Illinois has now won two straight in the series, thanks to Rice’s three-pointer as time expired.
Dec 20, 2014, 3:26 PM EST
Not surprising, considering Gus Johnson is on the call.
Dec 20, 2014, 3:23 PM EST
North Carolina had its most impressive showing of the season in a convincing win over Ohio State on Saturday in Chicago.
Dec 20, 2014, 1:30 PM EST
Josh Jackson put on a show last night. Here’s a mixtape of what he can do.
Louisville’s Montrezl Harrell throws a punch, ejected as tempers flare against Western Kentucky (VIDEOS)
Dec 20, 2014, 12:56 PM EST
Montrezl Harrell ejected for throwing a punch.
Dec 20, 2014, 11:49 AM EST
This will be the first time that Murphy plays this season.
Dec 20, 2014, 11:25 AM EST
He won’t coach against VCU.
Dec 20, 2014, 10:00 AM EST
Kwe Parker might only be a junior in high school, but he’s one of the best leapers in the country.
Dec 20, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
If you don’t feel like watching lower-tier bowl games, you’ll be happy to know that Saturday is loaded with great games.
Dec 19, 2014, 11:45 PM EST
Here’s a rundown of Friday night’s action.
Alex Mitola’s buzzer-beater three gives Dartmouth a 58-55 overtime win over Northern Illinois (VIDEO)
Dec 19, 2014, 11:12 PM EST
Alex Mitola ended with 18 points for the Big Green.
Dec 19, 2014, 10:13 PM EST
Eastern Kentucky had 14 threes. Miami had 12 field goals.
Dec 19, 2014, 8:59 PM EST
The senior forward is apparently playing for the Wisconsin Bearcats.
Dec 19, 2014, 7:30 PM EST
Villanova is off to another good start in the regular season, but heading into the New Year, the Wildcats will need to rack up the wins in postseason play.
Dec 19, 2014, 6:49 PM EST
The SMU forward missed the first 10 games.
- No. 1 Kentucky dismantles UCLA 1
- Late Night Snacks: Villanova survives Syracuse while UNC, SMU get big wins 0
- Markus Kennedy cleared to play immediately for SMU 0
- Weekend Preview: A loaded Saturday slate highlights the weekend 4
- Rebounding, foul shooting help No. 2 Duke make up for 19 turnovers in win over UConn 0
- Michigan State starting forward to miss next two games with non-displaced wrist fracture 0
- Film Session: What’s plaguing Marcus Paige? 1
- Gregg Marshall writes to Wichita State students after seeing empty seats in student section (PHOTO) (7)
- Report: David Robinson’s son will be preferred walk-on at Duke in 2015-16 (VIDEO) (6)
- West Virginia’s Bob Huggins torches Marshall after coach calls Huggs ‘afraid’ (5)
- Lauren Hill’s playing career over, to become honorary coach (4)
- Weekend Preview: A loaded Saturday slate highlights the weekend (4)