Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 28, 2015, 10:04 PM EDT
Elijah Bryant will have three years of eligibility remaining.
Jul 28, 2015, 8:43 PM EDT
The Arkansas forward was charged with one count of forgery last week.
Jul 28, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
The three-star forward failed to qualify earlier this month.
Jul 28, 2015, 6:21 PM EDT
Bobby Hurley off to a good start in his new gig in Tempe.
Jul 28, 2015, 6:00 PM EDT
Tai Wynyard of New Zealand is the only commit currently in Kentucky’s Class of 2016.
Jul 28, 2015, 5:15 PM EDT
John Beilein gets his third commitment for 2016.
Jul 28, 2015, 4:00 PM EDT
If you can do things like this, you can play for Duke or Kentucky.
Jul 28, 2015, 3:58 PM EDT
The accusations against him include burner phones, hiding IP addresses and his mother’s cell.
Jul 28, 2015, 2:35 PM EDT
Don’t jump, kid!!!!!!
Jul 28, 2015, 1:34 PM EDT
Abrams was projected as the starting point guard for Illinois.
Jul 28, 2015, 1:03 PM EDT
The Bulldogs aren’t guaranteed to play a top 25 team until SEC play.
Jul 28, 2015, 10:49 AM EDT
He is talented, just don’t call him the next Kevin Durant.
Jul 28, 2015, 10:12 AM EDT
Will Wade will have a beautiful facility to recruit to.
Jul 27, 2015, 9:28 PM EDT
First career 3-pointer for Jones?
Jul 27, 2015, 8:12 PM EDT
Potentially four top-25 teams will be in the 2015 field.
Jul 27, 2015, 5:51 PM EDT
Scott averaged 15.7 points per game for Grambling during the 2013-14 season.
Jul 27, 2015, 5:18 PM EDT
The former Big Ten Player of the Year (inaccurately) trolls Ohio State fans
Jul 27, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
It’s pretty obvious why people like Porter.
Jul 27, 2015, 2:17 PM EDT
Gabriel was the biggest stock riser for the month.
Jul 27, 2015, 1:51 PM EDT
Denzel Valentine and Taurean Waller-Prince also played well in stretches.
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