Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EST
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Nov 24, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
Look at how far away from the rim he takes off.
Nov 24, 2014, 7:00 AM EST
Putting together a top 25 this early is tough to do as we balance expectations with early season performance.
Nov 24, 2014, 1:10 AM EST
No. 1 Kentucky set a new school record, Ohio State’s Shannon Scott broke Aaron Craft’s single-game assist record and more.
Nov 24, 2014, 12:15 AM EST
‘Buckets’ earned his nickname because he gets … buckets.
Nov 23, 2014, 11:49 PM EST
A week that began with a win at No. 7 Florida ended with a commanding victory over Charlotte at the Gildan Charleston Classic.
Nov 23, 2014, 9:57 PM EST
West Virginia has better depth and toughness than they had a season ago, and those improvements paid off in Puerto Rico this weekend.
Nov 23, 2014, 8:55 PM EST
The 5-foot-10 guard has a standing vertical of 38 inches. That’s pretty good.
Nov 23, 2014, 8:10 PM EST
Kadeem Jack missed the first two games of the season with a thumb injury.
Nov 23, 2014, 6:55 PM EST
With Cullen Neal already dealing with an ankle injury, Arthur Edwards is the latest Lobo dealing with a health issue.
Nov 23, 2014, 5:34 PM EST
Rakim Lubin was averaging five minutes per contest in UConn’s first three games.
Nov 23, 2014, 5:16 PM EST
House scored 18 points, shooting 7-for-11 from the field, in Texas A&M’s 64-51 win over New Mexico.
Nov 23, 2014, 3:55 PM EST
Yale forward Matt Townsend was named a Rhodes Scholar this weekend, a rare honor only give to 32 American students each year.
Nov 23, 2014, 2:41 PM EST
Danuel House made his presence felt immediately for Texas A&M.
Nov 23, 2014, 2:10 PM EST
Oakland forward Tommy McCune had to overcome the loss of his mother after she lost her battle with cancer, but he’s shown flashes of great play early this season as he moves forward.
Nov 23, 2014, 1:10 PM EST
The high school ranks gave us a great dunk this weekend.
Nov 23, 2014, 12:00 PM EST
One of the best unsigned players in the 2015 class is down to three schools but then visited another school on Friday night.
Nov 23, 2014, 11:00 AM EST
Looks like Larry Nance Jr. is fully recovered from last season’s ACL injury.
Division III school makes buzzer-beating three-pointer against same opponent in back-to-back years (VIDEOS)
Nov 23, 2014, 10:00 AM EST
This is one of the wildest buzzer-beaters I’ve ever seen and the back story makes it that much more incredible.
Nov 23, 2014, 9:10 AM EST
Tournament action resumes on a busy Sunday of college hoops.
Nov 23, 2014, 3:56 AM EST
Concerns about Cook moving off the ball seem foolish through five games.
- College Basketball Talk’s latest top 25: Kentucky reigns, but how far will Kansas, Florida slide? 1
- Providence star LaDontae ‘Buckets’ Henton may be the nation’s most under-appreciated star 1
- West Virginia shows signs of progress in Puerto Rico Tipoff win over No. 17 UConn 1
- Quinn Cook is thriving as an off-guard, and No. 4 Duke will reap the benefits 0
- Rhode Island upsets No. 21 Nebraska, 66-62, in overtime 0
- Lauren Hill surprises teammates, fans with another layup in her second college game (VIDEO) 2
- The ‘Chaminade Crew’ and how Jonathan Holmes has changed the culture of Texas hoops 0
- Poll: 54 percent of people think Kentucky beats the 76ers, 54 percent of people are dumb (31)
- No. 1 Kentucky’s size, depth overwhelms No. 5 Kansas, makes 40-0 seem possible? (5)
- Pregame Shootaround: No. 14 Iowa State needs to be on upset alert tonight (3)
- Miami upsets No. 8 Florida thanks to the Angel Rodriguez takeover (3)
- Colorado’s second half run a product of its focus on getting the ball inside (3)