Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
May 21, 2015, 10:40 PM EDT
The slender forward joins Sacha Killeya-Jones, Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy in Virginia’s 2016 haul.
May 21, 2015, 9:35 PM EDT
Davis joins grassroots teammate C.J. Williamson Jr. in Texas Tech’s 2015 recruiting haul.
May 21, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
UNC fell short in the race for Brandon Ingram, and the investigation was a big reason why.
May 21, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
John Calipari will coach against former assistant Orlando Antigua November 27 in Miami.
May 21, 2015, 6:35 PM EDT
The Jonesboro, Georgia native averaged 11.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game as a redshirt junior at UALR.
May 21, 2015, 4:58 PM EDT
Last spring Mark Turgeon was seen by some as being on the “hot seat.” This spring, one sports book believes he’s got the early favorite to win the national title in 2016.
May 21, 2015, 3:54 PM EDT
Thanks a lot, Christian.
May 21, 2015, 2:09 PM EDT
Cal is always selling his program, and his latest viral quote is no different.
May 21, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
It’s not as weird as it sounds.
May 21, 2015, 12:40 PM EDT
Holman was expected to spend 2015-16 at a prep school.
May 21, 2015, 11:38 AM EDT
These are pretty funny.
May 21, 2015, 10:34 AM EDT
But this overt display of ‘amateurism’ may actually be good for the fight for student-athlete rights.
May 21, 2015, 9:00 AM EDT
The Red Storm are now up to seven newcomers with this addition.
May 20, 2015, 10:25 PM EDT
While Chicago has been discussed for quite some time as a franchise that may approach “The Mayor,” they still have a head coach in Tom Thibodeau.
May 20, 2015, 7:55 PM EDT
Jones was suspended two weeks after the team’s season came to an end.
May 20, 2015, 6:55 PM EDT
The news came one day after former Liberty forward Tomasz Gielo transferred to Ole Miss.
May 20, 2015, 6:06 PM EDT
Boston College was in need of additional backcourt depth, and this addition helps.
May 20, 2015, 4:39 PM EDT
Maryland’s the class of the field, but Rhode Island also has hopes of using this as a springboard into the NCAA tournament.
May 20, 2015, 3:30 PM EDT
Murray is the hot name on the recruiting circuit these days.
May 20, 2015, 2:46 PM EDT
Is this why he ducked Fred Hoiberg?
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- Looking Forward: Catching up on the American’s offseason 0
- Five-star center Caleb Swanigan has committed to Purdue 8
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- Looking Forward: Catching up on the Big East’s offseason 3
- UConn lands former Seton Hall guard Sterling Gibbs, eligible immediately 1
- Five-star center Caleb Swanigan has committed to Purdue (8)
- NCAA rules committee proposes 30-second shot clock, fewer timeouts (5)
- Sports book lists Maryland as early favorite to win national title (5)
- St. John’s lands 2015 point guard Marcus LoVett Jr. (4)
- John Calipari is selling his program when he says national title isn’t a goal (4)