Apr 1, 2013, 12:15 PM EDT
Way back in October, Louisville was in the same position as they are a week before the national title game: a favorite to win the national title.
With the exception of one three-game stretch in the middle of the season, Louisville has more-or-less steamrolled through the year. They’re sitting pretty at 33-5, they have the most efficient defense in Kenpom’s database (which dates back to 2003), and Peyton Siva and Russ Smith, Louisville’s nightmare-inducing back court, are playing the best basketball of their careers.
The last thing the rest of the country needed was for Rick Pitino’s team to have extra motivation heading into Atlanta. Now they have it.
How they got here: Louisville won the Midwest Region as the No. 1 seed. After blowing out North Carolina A&T, the Cardinals knocked off No. 8 seed Colorado State by 26, then beat No. 12 seed Oregon 77-69 in the Sweet 16 before last night’s 22 point win over No. 2 seed Duke.
Odds to win the title: 2:3
Why they can win: Everyone knows about how good Louisville’s defense is, but the difference between this Louisville team and the one that lost three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown is that their back court has been taking over games on the offensive end of the floor. Russ Smith is averaging 26.0 points in the NCAA tournament, as he’s been impossible to keep out of the paint and a terror in transition. Peyton Siva has controlled everything about the game for the Cardinals on the offensive end of the floor. He’s looked like a 10-year NBA veteran running the pick-and-roll, and he’s cut down on the number of jumpers he takes, focusing on getting into the lane and either scoring at the rim or finding his big men for easy baskets.
Why they won’t win: There are two things to be concerned about with Louisville. The first is that they struggle to shoot the ball from beyond the arc. That hasn’t hurt them yet, because no one has been able to keep Siva and Smith out of the lane, but if Wichita State — and, more importantly, if Syracuse — can keep the Cardinals from getting penetration with the dribble, Louisville could be in trouble. They also struggle on the defensive glass, as their zone makes it easy to get second shots and the Cardinals big men have a tendency to miss box outs and try to jump for rebounds.
It’s worth noting here that Wichita State is a good defensive team that is a top 20 offensive rebounding team.
Key stat: Louisville’s 27.5% defensive turnover percentage isn’t the number that opposing teams need to be concerned about. It’s their steal percentage, which, at 16.1%, was the second-best in the country this season and means that the Cardinals get a steal on roughly one out of every six possessions on the defensive end of the floor. That matters because they are so good in transition. When Louisville forces a live-ball turnover, often it ends up being a “pick-six”, leading to a layup at the other end.
Game-changer: Gorgui Dieng. He’s the shotblocker at the rim that allows Louisville’s guards to be aggressive and gamble on the perimeter, and his development offensively — he can hit 15 footers and he’s become a very good passer out of the high post — is key in their pick-and-roll offense and how Louisville can beat a 2-3 zone. (Ahem, Syracuse.)
Prediction?: I think Louisville will win it all.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 6, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
La Salle is losing an experienced guard to transfer.
Jul 6, 2015, 7:15 PM EDT
One of Tennessee’s only options at point guard is enrolling closer to the school year.
Jul 6, 2015, 5:45 PM EDT
One of the better shooting guards in the country is focused on 10 schools.
Jul 6, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Michigan is going with the Jumpman under its new apparel agreement.
Jul 6, 2015, 2:48 PM EDT
Kentucky had led the nation in average attendance for eight straight years.
Jul 6, 2015, 1:32 PM EDT
The top three in this group is debatable.
Jul 6, 2015, 12:53 PM EDT
Jonathan Isaac is loaded with potential.
Jul 6, 2015, 11:23 AM EDT
The front of the jersey said Kansas before.
Jul 6, 2015, 10:13 AM EDT
Two of the nation’s best high schoolers square off.
Jul 5, 2015, 10:03 PM EDT
Thibodeaux’s decision came eight days after he began basic training.
Jul 5, 2015, 8:05 PM EDT
All of the violations were deemed to be Level III or Level IV violations, which isn’t a big deal at all.
Jul 5, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
Plenty of college basketball players were in the FIBA U19 World Championships besides the Americans.
Jul 5, 2015, 3:37 PM EDT
The USA U19 team captured back-to-back FIBA World Championships for the first time since 1983.
Jul 5, 2015, 2:20 PM EDT
Mississippi State landed a commitment on Sunday from a transfer.
Jul 5, 2015, 10:30 AM EDT
Kansas (USA) is 2-0 so far at the World University Games.
Jul 5, 2015, 9:20 AM EDT
Markelle Fultz is one the best guard prospects in the country.
Jul 4, 2015, 7:45 PM EDT
Mathiang’s playing on an Australian team that includes the likes of Peter Hooley and Hugh Greenwood.
Jul 4, 2015, 5:00 PM EDT
The 6-foot-9 Henry averaged 6.0 points and 3.6 rebounds per game last season.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:59 PM EDT
Jalen Brunson led the way with 30 points for the United States, which plays Croatia Sunday.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Miles Bridges is one of the better scorers in the 2016 class.
- Re-ranking Recruiting Classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2009? 1
- Florida State lands commitment from five-star 2016 prospect 0
- USA U19 team wins in overtime of gold-medal game over Croatia at FIBA World Championships 0
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players in the Class of 2008? 1
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players in the Class of 2007? 1
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2006? 0
- Re-ranking recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2005? 1
- Bill Self impresses South Korean students with jumper (VIDEO) (3)
- Senior mixtape of 7-foot-6 UCF incoming freshman Tacko Fall (VIDEO) (2)
- Rick Barnes finally addresses accusations against Texas (2)
- Steph Curry misses a dunk staring at his phone, runs to camera to see it (VIDEO) (2)
- Alabama self-reported 13 minor violations last academic year, including one for men’s basketball (2)