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Final Four Previews: What you need to know about Michigan

Apr 1, 2013, 12:38 PM EST

Michigan v Florida Getty Images

There was a point in time where many people, myself included, thought that Michigan might be the best team in the country.

Trey Burke was playing like, well, Trey Burke. Nik Stauskas was hitting seemingly every shot that he took. Tim Hardaway Jr. was playing like an all-american and Glenn Robinson III didn’t look like a freshman at all.

But that all changed late down the stretch of the regular season. Stauskas slumped, Robinson struggled against top-flight competition, Jordan Morgan got hurt and, after a flameout in the second round of the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines ended up with a No. 4 seed in the Big Dance.

Things clicked once the tournament began, however, and John Beilein’s club once again looks like a title contender.

How they got here: The Wolverines torched both No. 13 seed South Dakota State and No. 5 seed VCU on the first weekend. In the Sweet 16, Michigan erased a 14 point deficit in the final seven minutes and an eight point deficit in the final 1:14 to beat No. 1 seed Kansas before blowing out No. 3 Florida for the right to go to the Final Four.

Odds to win the title: 3:1

Read through all of our Final Four coverage here

Why they can win: Trey Burke is awesome, but the reason that Michigan can win a national title is because everyone else around him is playing well. Nik Stauskas went 6-6 from three and scored 22 points against Florida. Glenn Robinson III was arguably the team’s best player in their wins over SDSU and VCU. Most importantly, Mitch McGary is starting to look like the guy that was ranked No. 1 in the Class of 2012 at one point during his time in high school. He has averaged 17.5 points and 11.5 boards in the four games of the tournament.

When Burke is getting that kind of support, Michigan can survive some of his shooting struggles. Because, to be quite honest, outside of the three minute stretch where Burke took over against Kansas to force overtime and win that game, he has played pretty average basketball (by his standards) the last four games.

Why they won’t win: Their defense, specifically Trey Burke. Who is he going to guard on Syracuse? Michael Carter-Williams? He feasted on Indiana’s small guards, finishing with 24 points. Will Michigan put him on Brandon Triche? Maybe, but Triche not only has four inches on Burke, he has 40 pounds on him. What if they make it to the title game? Can Burke stay in front of Siva or Smith without getting into foul trouble? What about Malcolm Armstead?

And Burke isn’t the only player on the team that can struggle on the defensive end of the floor. McGary isn’t exactly known as a shot-blocking menace. Robinson can get overpowered by bigger four-men. There’s no question that Michigan is going to be able to score, but their work on the defensive end will end up being the difference.

Key stat: There are two you need to know: they are the best in the country when it comes to protecting the ball, and they are 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Why does that matter? Well, they should be able to pass through and shoot over the Syracuse zone, and should they play Louisville in the final, they may not have as much trouble with the Cardinal’s press as other teams have.

Game-changer: Mitch McGary. He’s not a shot-blocker, but his physical presence on the interior certainly makes a difference, especially when he’s getting to the offensive glass and setting screens for Burke.

Prediction?: I actually think that Michigan is going to lose to Syracuse in the Final Four, but if they manage to knock off the Orange, I think that the Wolverines would be a better matchup with Louisville that Syracuse would.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

  1. sportsindcfan - Apr 1, 2013 at 12:55 PM

    I thought that Michigan had the most talented players in the big ten, but that did not always translate to the most wins. Now, however, they have their act together and should win. Still not sure if they could beat Louisville even though I hope so.

    • polegojim - Apr 2, 2013 at 10:57 AM

      GOTTA have Robinson and Hardaway at their best… no other way around it.

      Quick slides, switches, and filling gaps on D.

  2. kiopta1 - Apr 1, 2013 at 1:17 PM

    Now that my bracket is shot I can pull for Mich. I think they can win but Louisville is one tough opponent.

  3. midnightmaurader - Apr 1, 2013 at 2:09 PM

    Michigan’s defense is actually why they’re still playing right now. So to say its why they won’t win is kind of flawed. Neither Syracuse or Louisville are big time offenses anyway.

  4. mungman69 - Apr 1, 2013 at 7:38 PM

    If anyone can defeat Louisville I will be surprised. Of course I thought that Kansas, Indiana and Georgetown had a shot. So the winner of this game has a shot.

  5. jrs45 - Apr 1, 2013 at 9:17 PM

    Lville will win.

  6. tjjohnson98 - Apr 1, 2013 at 9:56 PM

    Michigan got extremely lucky against Kansas. Play like that again against any non-head case team and they’ll get stomped. Syracuse by 10+.

    • polegojim - Apr 2, 2013 at 10:53 AM

      I don’t disagree with your point that Michigan CAN’T play like they did the first half… EVER AGAIN.

      But Kansas in not a team full of dummies who can’t play under pressure. They’ve whooped up on many good teams.

      Michigan turned it up and Kansas was unprepared for that ‘next level’.

    • polegojim - Apr 2, 2013 at 10:56 AM

      PS – duplicate the Florida game two more times is the key. Early pouncing, early physical play, early D.

      Rip out the heart before the first 15 minutes expires… and ‘Play ANGRY’…Love that speech

    • polegojim - Apr 6, 2013 at 11:58 PM

      How about that TJ??? ; )

  7. reignjc - Apr 2, 2013 at 3:12 PM

    We all see how overrated the Big 10 is.. Syracuse should breeze through Michigan like they did Indiana.

  8. goirishgo - Apr 4, 2013 at 1:34 PM

    The first 5-10 minutes will be telling. If UM can grab an early lead they’ll be in good shape. On the other hand, playing from behind against the SU zone is tough. Damn tough.

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