Apr 1, 2013, 12:38 PM EDT
There was a point in time where many people, myself included, thought that Michigan might be the best team in the country.
Trey Burke was playing like, well, Trey Burke. Nik Stauskas was hitting seemingly every shot that he took. Tim Hardaway Jr. was playing like an all-american and Glenn Robinson III didn’t look like a freshman at all.
But that all changed late down the stretch of the regular season. Stauskas slumped, Robinson struggled against top-flight competition, Jordan Morgan got hurt and, after a flameout in the second round of the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines ended up with a No. 4 seed in the Big Dance.
Things clicked once the tournament began, however, and John Beilein’s club once again looks like a title contender.
How they got here: The Wolverines torched both No. 13 seed South Dakota State and No. 5 seed VCU on the first weekend. In the Sweet 16, Michigan erased a 14 point deficit in the final seven minutes and an eight point deficit in the final 1:14 to beat No. 1 seed Kansas before blowing out No. 3 Florida for the right to go to the Final Four.
Odds to win the title: 3:1
Why they can win: Trey Burke is awesome, but the reason that Michigan can win a national title is because everyone else around him is playing well. Nik Stauskas went 6-6 from three and scored 22 points against Florida. Glenn Robinson III was arguably the team’s best player in their wins over SDSU and VCU. Most importantly, Mitch McGary is starting to look like the guy that was ranked No. 1 in the Class of 2012 at one point during his time in high school. He has averaged 17.5 points and 11.5 boards in the four games of the tournament.
When Burke is getting that kind of support, Michigan can survive some of his shooting struggles. Because, to be quite honest, outside of the three minute stretch where Burke took over against Kansas to force overtime and win that game, he has played pretty average basketball (by his standards) the last four games.
Why they won’t win: Their defense, specifically Trey Burke. Who is he going to guard on Syracuse? Michael Carter-Williams? He feasted on Indiana’s small guards, finishing with 24 points. Will Michigan put him on Brandon Triche? Maybe, but Triche not only has four inches on Burke, he has 40 pounds on him. What if they make it to the title game? Can Burke stay in front of Siva or Smith without getting into foul trouble? What about Malcolm Armstead?
And Burke isn’t the only player on the team that can struggle on the defensive end of the floor. McGary isn’t exactly known as a shot-blocking menace. Robinson can get overpowered by bigger four-men. There’s no question that Michigan is going to be able to score, but their work on the defensive end will end up being the difference.
Key stat: There are two you need to know: they are the best in the country when it comes to protecting the ball, and they are 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Why does that matter? Well, they should be able to pass through and shoot over the Syracuse zone, and should they play Louisville in the final, they may not have as much trouble with the Cardinal’s press as other teams have.
Game-changer: Mitch McGary. He’s not a shot-blocker, but his physical presence on the interior certainly makes a difference, especially when he’s getting to the offensive glass and setting screens for Burke.
Prediction?: I actually think that Michigan is going to lose to Syracuse in the Final Four, but if they manage to knock off the Orange, I think that the Wolverines would be a better matchup with Louisville that Syracuse would.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Oct 31, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
For the past two years, the Philly product has averaged five points per game.
Oct 31, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Just Bruce Pearl being Bruce Pearl.
Oct 31, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
Another SEC school used a similar system on its way to a national title game appearance in 2000.
CBT’s Recruiting Roundup: UCF lands a unique center, Tennessee’s impact wing, Saint Louis gets rising center
Oct 31, 2014, 3:00 PM EDT
News and notes from the world of college basketball recruiting.
Oct 31, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Despite 29 wins (13 in conference play) Louisiana Tech missed out on the NCAA tournament. Michael White looks to change that this season, although, his team will have to go through the likes of UTEP and newcomer Western Kentucky, first.
Oct 31, 2014, 1:12 PM EDT
With the number of guards in the Kansas program, playing time was likely to be scarce for Conner Frankamp.
Oct 31, 2014, 12:45 PM EDT
Isaac Fotu’s part of the NCAA’s investigation into the program, and other schools have attempted to poach some of Hawaii’s remaining players.
Oct 31, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
Virginia is coming off of a dual-ACC title and returns the majority of the key players from that team.
Oct 31, 2014, 11:37 AM EDT
No surprise that Kentucky’s on top. Also of note: No. 3 Wisconsin received more first-place votes than No. 2 Arizona.
Oct 31, 2014, 10:30 AM EDT
The Cincinnati transfer was expected to factor into a rotation that’s replacing five seniors from last season’s team.
Oct 31, 2014, 9:00 AM EDT
Is this team better than Philly?
Oct 30, 2014, 11:53 PM EDT
Quick action by construction workers ensured that it was declared ready for play two days after being flooded.
Oct 30, 2014, 10:41 PM EDT
Some officials are in hot water after compromising a system used by 20 different Division I conferences.
Oct 30, 2014, 8:58 PM EDT
Saint Louis adds more depth to its front court with this verbal commitment.
Oct 30, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
I can do that.
Oct 30, 2014, 7:26 PM EDT
John Egbunu was an American Athletic Conference All-Freshman Team selection at USF last season.
Oct 30, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT
The Preseason Atlantic 10 Player of the Year is looking to lead VCU deep into March.
Oct 30, 2014, 5:55 PM EDT
Chris Clarke is a perfect fit for Donnie Tyndall.
Oct 30, 2014, 4:45 PM EDT
The Golden Griffins have to account for the loss of four starters from last season’s 21-win team.
Oct 30, 2014, 3:56 PM EDT
Feel free to take this as my challenge to you all.
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- Top 25 Countdown: No. 6 Virginia Cavaliers 0
- 2014-15 Season Preview: College Basketball Dream Team 1
- VCU’s Treveon Graham: From lightly recruited to leader of Havoc, the Atlantic 10 favorites 0
- Top 25 Countdown: No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels 1
- Dayton’s Elite 8 run, Archie Miller’s decision to stay help continue Atlantic 10’s success 1
- 2014-15 Season Preview: Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky lead a strong crop of big men 0
- Sophomore guard decides to leave Kansas program (3)
- Five-star 2015 power forward down to five schools (2)
- Roy Williams says he was ‘dumbfounded’ following Kenneth Wainstein’s report (VIDEO) (2)
- Hawaii considering its options regarding NCAA investigation of basketball program (2)
- VCU’s band ‘The Peppas’ will be doing Haka War Chants this year (VIDEO) (2)