Apr 1, 2013, 12:38 PM EDT
There was a point in time where many people, myself included, thought that Michigan might be the best team in the country.
Trey Burke was playing like, well, Trey Burke. Nik Stauskas was hitting seemingly every shot that he took. Tim Hardaway Jr. was playing like an all-american and Glenn Robinson III didn’t look like a freshman at all.
But that all changed late down the stretch of the regular season. Stauskas slumped, Robinson struggled against top-flight competition, Jordan Morgan got hurt and, after a flameout in the second round of the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines ended up with a No. 4 seed in the Big Dance.
Things clicked once the tournament began, however, and John Beilein’s club once again looks like a title contender.
How they got here: The Wolverines torched both No. 13 seed South Dakota State and No. 5 seed VCU on the first weekend. In the Sweet 16, Michigan erased a 14 point deficit in the final seven minutes and an eight point deficit in the final 1:14 to beat No. 1 seed Kansas before blowing out No. 3 Florida for the right to go to the Final Four.
Odds to win the title: 3:1
Why they can win: Trey Burke is awesome, but the reason that Michigan can win a national title is because everyone else around him is playing well. Nik Stauskas went 6-6 from three and scored 22 points against Florida. Glenn Robinson III was arguably the team’s best player in their wins over SDSU and VCU. Most importantly, Mitch McGary is starting to look like the guy that was ranked No. 1 in the Class of 2012 at one point during his time in high school. He has averaged 17.5 points and 11.5 boards in the four games of the tournament.
When Burke is getting that kind of support, Michigan can survive some of his shooting struggles. Because, to be quite honest, outside of the three minute stretch where Burke took over against Kansas to force overtime and win that game, he has played pretty average basketball (by his standards) the last four games.
Why they won’t win: Their defense, specifically Trey Burke. Who is he going to guard on Syracuse? Michael Carter-Williams? He feasted on Indiana’s small guards, finishing with 24 points. Will Michigan put him on Brandon Triche? Maybe, but Triche not only has four inches on Burke, he has 40 pounds on him. What if they make it to the title game? Can Burke stay in front of Siva or Smith without getting into foul trouble? What about Malcolm Armstead?
And Burke isn’t the only player on the team that can struggle on the defensive end of the floor. McGary isn’t exactly known as a shot-blocking menace. Robinson can get overpowered by bigger four-men. There’s no question that Michigan is going to be able to score, but their work on the defensive end will end up being the difference.
Key stat: There are two you need to know: they are the best in the country when it comes to protecting the ball, and they are 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Why does that matter? Well, they should be able to pass through and shoot over the Syracuse zone, and should they play Louisville in the final, they may not have as much trouble with the Cardinal’s press as other teams have.
Game-changer: Mitch McGary. He’s not a shot-blocker, but his physical presence on the interior certainly makes a difference, especially when he’s getting to the offensive glass and setting screens for Burke.
Prediction?: I actually think that Michigan is going to lose to Syracuse in the Final Four, but if they manage to knock off the Orange, I think that the Wolverines would be a better matchup with Louisville that Syracuse would.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Jul 4, 2015, 3:00 PM EDT
Miles Bridges is one of the better scorers in the 2016 class.
Jul 4, 2015, 2:15 PM EDT
The US is taking on the hosts in the semifinals, with the winner getting Croatia on Sunday.
Jul 4, 2015, 1:00 PM EDT
Four players from 2015 NCAA tournament programs are trying out for the Canadian national team.
Jul 4, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
Kansas won its debut overseas this summer as Wayne Selden had a big outing.
Jul 4, 2015, 9:05 AM EDT
UConn landed a quality guard in the Class of 2016.
Jul 4, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Given Oregon’s many perimeter options, minutes were likely to be at a premium for Rorie in 2015-16.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:00 PM EDT
The top four players remain the same.
Jul 3, 2015, 9:19 PM EDT
The redshirt junior has not played since January 2014.
Jul 3, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT
The rising sophomore was originally being blocked from transferring to 55 schools.
Jul 3, 2015, 6:08 PM EDT
Ohio State begins its 2017 class with a local product.
Jul 3, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
Jalen Brunson led USA Basketball with 17 points.
Jul 3, 2015, 2:10 PM EDT
A lot of unranked players made their way into the top five in a surprisingly deep class.
Jul 3, 2015, 1:40 PM EDT
Jalen Brunson led four Americans in double figures with 17 points.
Jul 3, 2015, 11:30 AM EDT
Minnesota is one of four schools the 6-foot-10 center is reportedly considering.
Jul 3, 2015, 10:00 AM EDT
The lone school to host the Georgia native on an official visit is considered to be the favorite in this recruiting race.
Jul 2, 2015, 7:40 PM EDT
Oregon still has a date to fill (December 29), which the school expects to be filled by an in-state opponent.
Jul 2, 2015, 4:30 PM EDT
This is nasty.
Jul 2, 2015, 3:45 PM EDT
The Class of 2007 produced some very good players, including one who’s an NBA MVP and others who have developed into perennial all-stars.
Jul 2, 2015, 2:53 PM EDT
I’m a big fan of these, particularly the dark grey ones.
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- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players in the Class of 2007? 0
- Re-ranking the recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2006? 0
- Re-ranking recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2005? 1
- Re-ranking recruiting classes: Who are the 25 best players from the Class of 2004? 2
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