Apr 1, 2013, 12:38 PM EDT
There was a point in time where many people, myself included, thought that Michigan might be the best team in the country.
Trey Burke was playing like, well, Trey Burke. Nik Stauskas was hitting seemingly every shot that he took. Tim Hardaway Jr. was playing like an all-american and Glenn Robinson III didn’t look like a freshman at all.
But that all changed late down the stretch of the regular season. Stauskas slumped, Robinson struggled against top-flight competition, Jordan Morgan got hurt and, after a flameout in the second round of the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines ended up with a No. 4 seed in the Big Dance.
Things clicked once the tournament began, however, and John Beilein’s club once again looks like a title contender.
How they got here: The Wolverines torched both No. 13 seed South Dakota State and No. 5 seed VCU on the first weekend. In the Sweet 16, Michigan erased a 14 point deficit in the final seven minutes and an eight point deficit in the final 1:14 to beat No. 1 seed Kansas before blowing out No. 3 Florida for the right to go to the Final Four.
Odds to win the title: 3:1
Why they can win: Trey Burke is awesome, but the reason that Michigan can win a national title is because everyone else around him is playing well. Nik Stauskas went 6-6 from three and scored 22 points against Florida. Glenn Robinson III was arguably the team’s best player in their wins over SDSU and VCU. Most importantly, Mitch McGary is starting to look like the guy that was ranked No. 1 in the Class of 2012 at one point during his time in high school. He has averaged 17.5 points and 11.5 boards in the four games of the tournament.
When Burke is getting that kind of support, Michigan can survive some of his shooting struggles. Because, to be quite honest, outside of the three minute stretch where Burke took over against Kansas to force overtime and win that game, he has played pretty average basketball (by his standards) the last four games.
Why they won’t win: Their defense, specifically Trey Burke. Who is he going to guard on Syracuse? Michael Carter-Williams? He feasted on Indiana’s small guards, finishing with 24 points. Will Michigan put him on Brandon Triche? Maybe, but Triche not only has four inches on Burke, he has 40 pounds on him. What if they make it to the title game? Can Burke stay in front of Siva or Smith without getting into foul trouble? What about Malcolm Armstead?
And Burke isn’t the only player on the team that can struggle on the defensive end of the floor. McGary isn’t exactly known as a shot-blocking menace. Robinson can get overpowered by bigger four-men. There’s no question that Michigan is going to be able to score, but their work on the defensive end will end up being the difference.
Key stat: There are two you need to know: they are the best in the country when it comes to protecting the ball, and they are 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Why does that matter? Well, they should be able to pass through and shoot over the Syracuse zone, and should they play Louisville in the final, they may not have as much trouble with the Cardinal’s press as other teams have.
Game-changer: Mitch McGary. He’s not a shot-blocker, but his physical presence on the interior certainly makes a difference, especially when he’s getting to the offensive glass and setting screens for Burke.
Prediction?: I actually think that Michigan is going to lose to Syracuse in the Final Four, but if they manage to knock off the Orange, I think that the Wolverines would be a better matchup with Louisville that Syracuse would.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.
Aug 31, 2014, 11:43 PM EDT
The second team All-MAC selection scored eight points in Senegal’s win over Puerto Rico.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:25 PM EDT
Bruce Weber now has three verbal commitments in the Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:05 PM EDT
5-foot-11 point guard Glynn Watson becomes Nebraska’s second 2015 commitment.
Aug 31, 2014, 8:02 PM EDT
Slender forward Brandon Ingram is one of the best perimeter prospects in the Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 6:20 PM EDT
Tennessee is on the board in 2015 due to the addition of a versatile 6-foot-5 forward.
Aug 31, 2014, 5:23 PM EDT
Roy Williams challenged his players in the Bahamas, and the accepted it on Saturday afternoon.
Aug 31, 2014, 3:39 PM EDT
Malik Newman is the No. 3 overall recruit, according to Rivals.
Aug 31, 2014, 1:35 PM EDT
The Robinson brothers are the first two commits in Quinnipiac’s Class of 2015.
Aug 31, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
The Cougars have been without a head coach since Aug. 5.
Aug 31, 2014, 10:17 AM EDT
Bruce Pearl has landed five commitments in 10 days.
Aug 31, 2014, 9:30 AM EDT
More dunks from one of the best all-star games of the summer.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:20 PM EDT
Connor McCaffery was expected to play for his father, and he announced the intention to do so Saturday.
Aug 30, 2014, 9:57 PM EDT
The Floridian averaged 26 points per game as a high school junior.
Aug 30, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
Yanick Moreira missed time last season due to injury, so this month could prove incredibly valuable for both he and the SMU program he’ll rejoin.
Aug 30, 2014, 6:43 PM EDT
Providence is looking to reach consecutive NCAA tournaments for the first time since the 1989 and 1990 seasons.
Aug 30, 2014, 5:00 PM EDT
Franklin Edmond averaged 18.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game as a freshman.
Aug 30, 2014, 3:30 PM EDT
After a big recruiting week for Auburn, two players from the current roster are leaving the program.
Aug 30, 2014, 2:00 PM EDT
Cincinnati has some tough opponents in the non-conference portion of the 2014-15 schedule.
Aug 30, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
Utah State returns a veteran locker-room presence.
Aug 30, 2014, 11:30 AM EDT
Providence added another piece for the 2014-15 season late this week.
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- College Basketball Talk’s Recruiting Roundup 0
- Former Michigan center discusses hasty departure for the NBA (VIDEO) 0
- Five-star 2015 center trims list to five 1
- College of Charleston coaching search takes another turn 0
- Rivals releases new rankings for the Class of 2015 0
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- Former Ole Miss star Marshall Henderson getting pro tryout in Italy (2)
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- Report: Ex-Spartan forward headed to Ohio (1)
- Blue Ribbon releases their Preseason First Team All-Americans (1)