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Previewing the National Title game: Louisville vs. Michigan

Apr 8, 2013, 11:35 AM EDT

Gorgui Dieng

The last day of the college basketball season.

Hard to believe it’s been five months already.

And I couldn’t be more excited about the national title game.

Key Player: Gorgui Dieng, Louisville

Mitch McGary has played the best basketball of his career during this tournament. He’s averaging 16.0 points and 11.6 boards in these five games, and the six assists he handed out against Syracuse were the biggest reason that Michigan was able to advance past Syracuse on Saturday night. Dieng is going to be the guy that matches up with McGary. Can Dieng keep him off of the offensive glass? Can he slow down McGary when Michigan run their pick-and-roll? Can he matchup with McGary at the high-post on the possessions that the Cardinals are in their 2-3 zone?

Perhaps just as important is the fact that Dieng is also Louisville’s rim protector. With shooters like Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III on the perimeter, Louisville isn’t going to be able to provide help on Burke. Dieng will have to be the eraser. If Dieng can give him trouble when he tries to get all the way to the rim, it will be a major boost for the Cardianls as they try to slow down the nation’s No. 1 offense.

Key Matchup: Michigan guarding Russ Smith and Peyton Siva

Much has been made of the matchup between Trey Burke and Louisville’s talented back court of Smith and Siva, but most of the attention has focused on whether or not the combination of Smith and Siva can slow down the National Player of the Year. But that’s not the biggest question: how will Michigan slow down Smith and Siva? Think about it. Those two make up the quickest back court in the country. Trey Burke is a better defender than he is given credit for, but trying to keep Siva out of the paint is not an easy thing to do. Can Tim Hardaway Jr. or Nik Stauskas defend Smith?

It puts John Beilein in an interesting position. Does he stick with his man-to-man if it’s getting carved up? Does he play Spike Albrecht more minutes? Will we see an appearance of Michigan’s 1-3-1 zone?

Key Stat: Turnovers

Everyone knows this by now. Louisville’s press is devastating, but Michigan may be the best team in the country when it comes to breaking the press.

Who Wins?: Louisville, 68-66.

So.

Who ya got?

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

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