May 14, 2013, 12:45 PM EDT
Record: 21-12, lost in 1st round of NIT
Who do they lose?: Nerlens Noel, Archie Goodwin, Julius Mays, Ryan Harrow
Who comes back?: Alex Poythress, Kyle Wiltjer, Willie Cauley-Stein
Newcomers?: Julius Randle, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, James Young, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee
Outlook: Even with Andrew Wiggins is heading to Kansas, Kentucky’s recruiting class is still one of the best recruiting classes of all time. They also return two future lottery picks in Poythress and Cauley-Stein. I have some doubts about this group, but it won’t change the fact that they are the favorite to win it all as of today.
Record: 35-5, won the title
Who do they lose?: Gorgui Dieng, Peyton Siva
Who comes back?: Russ Smith, Chane Behanan, Luke Hancock, Wayne Blackshear, Montrezl Harrell, Kevin Ware
Newcomers?: Chris Jones, Terry Rozier, Akoy Agau, Anton Gill
Outlook: With Smith changing his mind and deciding to return to school, Louisville looks like they are going to have a real chance to repeat as national champions. Smith won KenPom’s National Player of the Year award in large part because of the havoc that he wreaks on the defensive end of the floor, which makes him the perfect guard for the Cardinals. The key for this team is going to be the development of Harrell. He needs to develop into a guy that can dominate the paint on both ends of the floor.
3. MICHIGAN STATE
Record: 27-9, lost in the Sweet 16
Who do they lose?: Derrick Nix
Who comes back?: Keith Appling, Gary Harris, Adreian Payne, Branden Dawson, Denzel Valentine, Travis Trice
Newcomers?: Gavin Schilling, Alvin Ellis
Outlook: With both Payne and Harris returning to school, Michigan State is once again loaded. Harris, with a full summer to rehab his shoulder, should have a fantastic sophomore campaign. But getting Payne back was the key, as he’ll be the only real presence that the Spartans have in the paint next season. If he can continue to improve, he’s got the tools to be a first round pick next season.
Record: 27-8, lost in the Sweet 16
Who do they lose?: Mark Lyons, Solomon Hill, Kevin Parrom, Grant Jerrett
Who comes back?: Nick Johnson, Brandon Ashley, Kaleb Tarczewski
Newcomers?: TJ McConnell, Aaron Gordon, Rondae Jefferson
Outlook: I had concerns about the makeup of Arizona’s roster, but the loss of Jerrett actually may be a blessing in disguise. There is no longer such a bottleneck on minutes in the front court. Instead, there are five guys that can rotate between three positions, all of whom are incredibly talented — Gordon, Tarczewski, Ashely, Chol, Jeffereson. The addition of McConnell at the point will be huge, and I think Johnson is primed for a big year on the wing.
Record: 31-6, lost in the Sweet 16
Who do they lose?: Ben McLemore, Travis Releford, Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson, Kevin Young
Who comes back?: Naadir Tharpe, Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor
Newcomers?: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Wayne Selden, Connor Frankamp, Frank Mason, Brannen Greene
Outlook: The Jayhawks lost their entire starting lineup from a team that spent the majority of the season in the top ten and won the Big 12 conference, and they are going to be better next year despite the fact that college basketball, as a whole, is going to be loaded at the top next season? That’s the power of Andrew Wiggins. His addition gives Bill Self a go-to guy and allows the loaded recruiting class he brings in to spend a season as role players. The Jayhawks are once again the Big 12 favorites and a national title contender.
Record: 30-6, lost in the Elite 8
Who do they lose?: Mason Plumlee, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly
Who comes back?: Quinn Cook, Rasheed Sulaimon, Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy, Marshall Plumlee
Newcomers?: Rodney Hood, Jabari Parker, Matt Jones, Semi Ojeleye
Outlook: It feels weird ranking a team that loses their top three scorers this high, but it’s very much deserved. Parker is going to be a star, which is a good thing when you consider that either Sulaimon or Mississippi State transfer Hood will end up being the third option for this team. Cook is a good-but-not-great point guard, and someone from the trio of Jefferson, Murphy and Plumlee is going to have to have a breakout season up front. The Blue Devils could actually really use the infusion of size that Memphis transfer Tarik Black would provide. But there’s enough talent here to be considered a title contender.
Record: 29-8, lost in the Elite 8
Who do they lose?: Kenny Boynton, Mike Rosario, Erik Murphy
Who comes back?: Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather, Michael Frazier, Will Yeguete
Newcomers?: Chris Walker, Kasey Hill, Dorian Finney-Smith, Damontre Harris
Outlook: The Gators lose their top three scorers, but they could end up being even better next season thanks to the infusion of talent they have in their front court. Not only is Young coming back to school, but they add a McDonald’s all-american in Walker and two high-major transfers in Finney-Smith and Harris. Hill is one of the best point guards in the Class of 2013. The key is going to end up being how the rest of Florida’s perimeter attack — Prather, Frazier, Wilbekin — ends up developing.
Record: 30-10, lost in the Final Four
Who do they lose?: Michael Carter-Williams, James Southerland, Brandon Triche,
Who comes back?: CJ Fair, Jerami Grant, DaJuan Coleman, Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney
Newcomers?: Tyler Ennis, Ron Patterson, Tyler Roberson, BJ Johnson, Chinonso Obokoh, Michael Gbinije
Outlook: The Orange lose quite a bit this offseason, but with what they bring back and what they bring in, I think that Jim Boeheim will have a successful first season in the ACC. Fair is one of the most underrated players in the country and a key to the Cuse offensive attack with his perimeter ability. I think that both Grant and Cooney will end up having big years for the Orange. But with Ennis and Patterson joining them in the back court, along with two more freshmen wings in Roberson and Johnson that are perfectly built for the Cuse zone, the Orange have a bright future.
Record: 31-8, lost in the title game
Who do they lose?: Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Who comes back?: Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, Nik Stauskas, Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, Spike Albrecht, Caris LeVert
Newcomers?: Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin, Mark Donnall
Outlook: The Wolverines got some huge news when McGary and Robinson announced that they would be returning to school for their sophomore seasons. Throw in the return of Stauskas, LaVert and Albrecht and the addition of another good freshman class, and there is plenty to like about Michigan. The key is going to end up being Walton. How good is he going to be at the point guard spot?
10. OKLAHOMA STATE
Record: 24-9, lost in the Round of 64
Who do they lose?: Philip Jurick
Who comes back?: Marcus Smart, Le’Bryan Nash, Markel Brown, Brian Williams, Phil Forte, Michael Cobbins
Newcomers?: Stevie Clark, Detrick Mostella, Leyton Hammonds, Gary Gaskins, Jeffrey Carroll
Outlook: Oklahoma State vaulted Kansas to become the favorite to win the Big 12 when Smart announced to the world that he would be returning to school for his sophomore season, but that changed when Andrew Wiggins decided to head to Lawrence. With Nash, Brown, Williams and Forte also returning, and a talented recruiting class headlined by back court studs Clark and Mostella, the Pokes are going to be a really fun team to watch next season. The key? Cobbins and Murphy inside. Expect a lot of up-and-down basketball out of this group.
11. North Carolina
12. Ohio State
17. Wichita State
24. New Mexico
25. Boise State
Also considered: Tennessee, UConn
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