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Bracketology: Florida moves to top line

Feb 3, 2014, 6:16 PM EST

With the Super Bowl behind us, it’s time to start focusing on March Madness.  Given the action we’ve witness the past couple of weeks, the upcoming NCAA Tournament should be full of surprises.

If you need any other evidence, check out the teams listed around the bubble in today’s bracket.  They’re moving around faster than the Seahawks’ defense at MetLife Stadium.  We have some very interesting resumes.  Like recent weather forecasts, they change quickly, and often.

After 12 straight wins – and a loss by an injured Michigan State squad – the Florida Gators move to the line.  Wichita State is another team pushing for region supremacy.  The aforementioned Spartans, along with Villanova and San Diego State round out the two-seed line today.   Following its thrilling overtime victory over Duke on Saturday, and Arizona’s loss at California, the Orange now sit atop the bracket as the No. 1 overall seed.  Arizona and Kansas remain as the other projected No. 1 seeds based on games played through Sunday, February 2.  Yes, the Jayhawks lost at Texas, but their resume is filled with 12 Top 100 wins, a No. 1 strength of schedule, and the top spot in the RPI. Kansas also leads arguably one of the best two conferences (Big 12) in the nation.

Memphis absorbed the biggest seeding drop.  It’s not so much the loss at SMU as much as the behind-the-scenes resume numbers.  The Tigers are a concerning 2-5 against the RPI Top 50 and they have just three Top 100 RPI victories.  Fortunately, opportunities for seed-building wins remain: Gonzaga, Connecticut, Louisville, Cincinnati, and SMU are still on the schedule.

If you’re returning to hoops with a football hangover, several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.  You will see several examples of that in today’s bracket.

Enjoy a fun week of hoops.  We’re on the final push toward Selection Sunday.

UPDATED: February 3, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Florida State vs. Arizona State | West Region
  • Oregon vs. Baylor | Midwest Region
  • SOUTHERN vs. COASTAL CAROLINA Midwest Region
  • ROBERT MORRIS vs. CHATTANOOGA | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTNew York WEST - Anaheim                                 
Buffalo San Diego
1) SYRACUSE 1) ARIZONA
16) ROB MORRIS / CHATTANOOGA 16) UTAH VALLEY
8) VCU 8) Memphis
9) California 9) Kansas State
Orlando Spokane
5) Oklahoma State 5) Kentucky
12) HARVARD 12) Florida State / Arizona State
4) Iowa 4) Iowa State
13) CANISIUS 13) S.F. AUSTIN
Raleigh San Antonio
6) Wisconsin 6) GONZAGA
11) SOUTHERN MISS 11) Colorado
3) CINCINNATI 3) CREIGHTON
14) OHIO 14) UC-IRVINE
Buffalo San Antonio
7) Massachusetts 7) Ohio State
10) Minnesota 10) Tennessee
2) Villanova 2) SAN DIEGO STATE
15) STONY BROOK 15) NC-CENTRAL
SOUTH – Memphis MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Orlando St. Louis
1) FLORIDA 1) KANSAS
16) WEBER STATE 16) CO. CAROLINA / SOUTHERN
8) North Carolina 8) UCLA
9) George Washington 9) Xavier
Spokane San Diego
5) SAINT LOUIS 5) Texas
12) GREEN BAY 12) Oregon / Baylor
4) Oklahoma 4) Virginia
13) MERCER 13) DELAWARE
Raleigh Milwaukee
6) Connecticut 6) Louisville
11) LSU 11) Stanford
3) Duke 3) MICHIGAN
14) GEORGIA STATE 14) MURRAY STATE
Milwaukee St. Louis
7) New Mexico 7) Pittsburgh
10) Missouri 10) Providence
2) Michigan State 2) WICHITA STATE
15) AMERICAN 15) IPFW

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Kansas, and Florida.

Last Five teams in (at large): LSU, Florida State, Arizona State, Oregon, Baylor

First Five teams out (at large): Georgetown, Ole Miss, SMU, Indiana, BYU

Next five teams out (at large): Clemson, St. Joseph’s, Dayton, Maryland, Richmond

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Pac 12 (7): Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

ACC (6): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU

American (4): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati

Atlantic 10 (4): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington

Big East (4): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Southern Miss (C-USA), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), American (Patriot), IPFW (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Chattanooga (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Canisius (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Ohio (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Harvard (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Stony Brook (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)

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  1. rabbi187 - Feb 3, 2014 at 9:56 PM

    Saying the PAC 12 has 7 and the SEC has 5 (almost 6) tournament teams seams ridiculous. Rather see quality mid majors then above average teams in awful big conferences.

  2. packergator - Feb 5, 2014 at 9:46 AM

    Btw, how is Kansas a top 10 team with 5 losses? At some point, no matter the conference, the inability to close out games should count for something.

  3. packergator - Feb 5, 2014 at 9:49 AM

    I think the SEC won’t get that many in; it’ll likely be 3-4: Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee (with a strong non-conference SOS). Missouri or LSU will have to make a run in the last 10 games and the SEC tournament to get in, more than likely.

  4. musketmaniac - Feb 5, 2014 at 5:27 PM

    all the extra teams and only 6 from the acc. thats 15 teams and only 6 get in. while the big 12 gets 7 out 10. wow go big 12(10).

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