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NBCSports.com Bracketology: A couple of Saints march into First Four

Feb 17, 2014, 12:37 PM EST

source: Getty Images

Here’s a polite way of summarizing the current NCAA Tournament bubble picture:  if you don’t like today’s First Four match-ups, wait for the next bracket on Friday.  Today’s update finds a couple of Saints marching into Dayton:  Saint Joseph’s and St. John’s.  They are joined by BYU – fresh off a victory at Saint Mary’s – and Georgetown – which lost to St. John’s on Sunday night.  It would have been interesting had three Big East teams ended up among the last four at-large teams; Providence was one spot away, a single slot ahead of St. John’s on the s-curve.

On a final bubble note, the Oklahoma State situation bears watching.  How will the Selection Committee handle the Marcus Smart suspension?  Each member may look at it differently, and it may depend on how the Cowboys play when he returns.

With its victory at Kentucky on Saturday, Florida passed Arizona for the No. 2 spot on the overall seed list.  It’s worth noting, but doesn’t really impact the bracketing process.  The Gators and Wildcats are not vying for the same natural Region (as we had with Louisville and Indiana last year).  Syracuse continues to be the top overall seed with Wichita State as the fourth No. 1 seed.

Seeding for the two-line is ramping up fast and furious.  Besides Kansas, five teams were in contention for three spots:  Michigan State, San Diego State, Creighton, Villanova, and Duke.  There’s not a right or wrong way to rank them.  For now, MSU, SDSU, and Creighton grabbed those slots, with Villanova and Duke as the top two three-seeds.  That should play its way out in the next three weeks.

Enjoy your hoops.  March is right around the corner.

UPDATED: February 17, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament.  You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.   For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected.  The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Saint Joseph’s vs. St. John’s East Region
  • BYU vs. Georgetown South Region
  • SOUTHERN vs. UTAH VALLEY Midwest Region
  • ROBERT MORRIS vs. COASTAL CAROLINA East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EAST – New York SOUTH Memphis                           
Buffalo Orlando
1) SYRACUSE 1) FLORIDA
16) ROB MORRIS / CO CAROLINA 16) DAVIDSON
8) Kansas State 8) VCU
9) Stanford 9) California
San Diego Spokane
5) Kentucky 5) Iowa
12) GREEN BAY 12) BYU / Georgetown
4) SAINT LOUIS 4) Virginia
13) MIDDLE TENNESSEE 13) MERCER
Orlando Raleigh
6) Connecticut 6) Oklahoma
11) St. John’s / Saint Joseph’s 11) Missouri
3) MICHIGAN 3) CINCINNATI
14)  GEORGIA STATE 14) S.F. AUSTIN
Milwaukee Milwaukee
7) Pittsburgh 7) New Mexico
10) Colorado 10) Xavier
2) CREIGHTON 2) Michigan State
15) VERMONT 15) NC-CENTRAL
MIDWEST – Indianapolis WEST – Anaheim
St. Louis San Diego
1) WICHITA STATE 1) ARIZONA
16) UTAH VALLEY / SOUTHERN 16) WEBER STATE
8) Memphis 8) GONZAGA
9) Arizona State 9) George Washington
San Antonio Spokane
5) Texas 5) Ohio State
12) DELAWARE 12) NORTH DAKOTA ST
4) Wisconsin 4) Iowa State
13) Iona 13) BELMONT
Buffalo Raleigh
6) UCLA 6) Louisville
11) Minnesota 11) Providence
3) Villanova 3) Duke
14) WESTERN MICHIGAN 14) UC-IRVINE
St. Louis San Antonio
7) North Carolina 7) Massachusetts
10) SMU 10) Oklahoma State
2) KANSAS 2) SAN DIEGO ST
15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY 15) YALE

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State.

Last Five teams in (at large): Providence, Saint Joseph’s, St. John’s, BYU, Georgetown

First Five teams out (at large): Dayton, Richmond, West Virginia, Tennessee, Baylor

Next five teams out (at large): Arkansas, LSU, Marquette, NC State, Indiana State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

ACC (5): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

Big East (5): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Georgetown

Atlantic 10 (5): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington, Saint Joseph’s

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Western Michigan (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Yale (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)