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Bracketology: Flyers could be flying at home

Feb 21, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT

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The University of Dayton is home to the First Four participants of March Madness.  Even if the Dayton Flyers are one of those teams.

Today’s bracket update includes this very scenario, as the Flyers are the final at-large team in the projected Field of 68.  They are matched against Tennessee in one First Four pairing; Baylor and Providence square off in the other grouping.   Given the overall bubble picture, it’s hard to ignore Baylor’s non-conference wins over Colorado (when the Buffaloes were at full strength) and Kentucky.  Plus, the Bears’ are riding a three-game winning streak.  If we’ve learned anything, though, it’s that the bubble picture changes quickly.  Case in point: Baylor visits West Virginia and Texas in its next two games and the Bears have not thrived away from home.  Dayton also has a closing schedule that can help or hinder their NCAA chances.  It starts with trips to Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s.

No changes today on the No. 1 seed line despite Syracuse’s unexpected home loss to Boston College.  We’ll see how the Orange respond at Duke on Saturday night.  It should be a game where two feisty teams try to undo an unpleasant result (the Blue Devils are coming off a defeat at rival North Carolina on Thursday).

One housekeeping note … BYU is a true 11-seed after beating Gonzaga.  However, accommodating BYU’s bracketing requirements (Thursday-Saturday sites only) forced the Cougars down a seed line (12-seed in South Region).  The projected good news: they open in Spokane.

Enjoy a stellar weekend of college hoops.

UPDATED: February 21, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament.  You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.   For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected.  The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Tennessee vs. Dayton Midwest Region
  • Baylor vs. Providence East Region
  • ALABAMA STATE vs. UTAH VALLEY Midwest Region
  • WEBER STATE vs. HIGH POINT East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EAST – New York SOUTH Memphis                              
Buffalo Orlando
1) SYRACUSE 1) FLORIDA
16) WEBER STATE / HIGH POINT 16) DAVIDSON
8) Kansas State 8) George Washington
9) Stanford 9) Colorado
San Diego Spokane
5) Kentucky 5) UCLA
12) GREEN BAY 12) BYU
4) SAINT LOUIS 4) Iowa State
13) MIDDLE TENNESSEE 13) MERCER
Raleigh Raleigh
6) North Carolina 6) Iowa
11) Providence / Baylor 11) Saint Joseph’s
3) MICHIGAN 3) CINCINNATI
14)  GEORGIA STATE 14) S.F. AUSTIN
Milwaukee Milwaukee
7) New Mexico 7) Pittsburgh
10) SMU 10) Xavier
2) CREIGHTON 2) Michigan State
15) VERMONT 15) NC-CENTRAL
MIDWEST – Indianapolis WEST – Anaheim
St. Louis San Diego
1) WICHITA STATE 1) ARIZONA
16) UTAH VALLEY / ALABAMA ST 16) ROBERT MORRIS
8) Memphis 8) GONZAGA
9) Arizona State 9) VCU
Spokane Orlando
5) Texas 5) Ohio State
12) NORTH DAKOTA ST 12) BELMONT
4) Virginia 4) Duke
13) IONA 13) DELAWARE
Buffalo San Antonio
6) Connecticut 6) Louisville
11) Tennessee / Dayton 11) St. John’s
3) Villanova 3) Wisconsin
14) WESTERN MICHIGAN 14) UC-IRVINE
St. Louis San Antonio
7) Massachusetts 7) Oklahoma
10) Missouri 10) California
2) KANSAS 2) SAN DIEGO ST
15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY 15) YALE

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Florida, Arizona, and Wichita State.

Last Five teams in (at large): Saint Joseph’s, Tennessee, Providence, Baylor, Dayton

First Five teams out (at large): Minnesota, Georgetown, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Arkansas

Next five teams out (at large): LSU, Oregon, Richmond, Indiana State, Florida State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State

Atlantic 10 (6): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton

Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin

ACC (5): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

Big East (5): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. John’s

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Middle Tennessee (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Western Michigan (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Yale (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), High Point (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Alabama State (SWAC)

  1. philliesblow - Feb 21, 2014 at 12:30 PM

    If I was a Michigan fan I would not be happy being projected to win the B1G then getting a 3 seed and possibly having play 6 seed North Carolina in Raleigh.

    I also have a hard time seeing Duke ending up as a 4 seed.

    • geraldlhayes - Feb 21, 2014 at 6:14 PM

      until I saw the receipt saying $8218 , I accept that my neighbour woz like they say realy receiving money part time at their laptop. . there mums best friend has done this 4 only 6 months and a short time ago repaid the loans on there home and got a top of the range Mini Cooper . read the article………………http://x.co/3w2WI…………………………..

    • geraldlhayes - Feb 21, 2014 at 6:16 PM

      until I saw the receipt saying $8218 , I accept that my neighbour woz like they say realy receiving money part time at their laptop. . there mums best friend has done this 4 only 6 months and a short time ago repaid the loans on there home and got a top of the range Mini Cooper . read the article………………http://x.co/3w2XR…………………………..

  2. musketmaniac - Feb 21, 2014 at 2:47 PM

    make up your Oklahoma state or Baylor, then list them correctly. you got baylor in the last four in, Oklahoma state first four out. but than you list state as in and baylor as out, confused much

  3. jcmeyer10 - Feb 21, 2014 at 2:56 PM

    Colorado vs George Washington would pit where I went to school to where my sister went to school.

  4. phillynac - Feb 21, 2014 at 3:42 PM

    Watch out for Nebraska. They are playing really well and are poised to make a push for an invite to the dance.

  5. packhawk04 - Feb 21, 2014 at 4:27 PM

    Philliesblow, im a michigan fan, and id have no problem being a 3 seed and winning the big ten. This conference is a bunch of mediocre teams duking it out. I dont think any big ten team should be above a 3 seed

    • philliesblow - Feb 21, 2014 at 7:53 PM

      pack – I won’t argue that the B1G is looking suspect. My bigger point was that as a 3 seed and conference champion, you get stuck playing a lower seed only about 30 miles from their campus.

  6. musketmaniac - Feb 21, 2014 at 4:50 PM

    Its funny but if the major conference seperate, would they expect to participate in the tourney where better teams from non football conferences are fighting to get in. The pac and the big 12 are the only highly competitive basketball conferences this year of the six no five major conferences. The atlantic ten (6) AAC (5) and the new/old big east (6). arguably more competitive than the big, acc and especially the sec.

  7. geraldlhayes - Feb 21, 2014 at 6:12 PM

    hi

  8. shockertalk - Feb 21, 2014 at 11:24 PM

    Why has the “home court advantage” substantially disappeared this year. Are the teams that inconsistent. Is the conference overrated.

    We will see how many Big 10 teams make the sweet 16. There are 5 ranked now.

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