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Bracketology: Overtime pays off for Arkansas, Oregon

Feb 28, 2014, 1:15 PM EDT

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It was quite a night for a couple of bubble teams.

With March knocking on the door, road wins for Arkansas and Oregon pushed the Razorbacks and Ducks into the Field of 68 – they are paired against each other in a First Four matchup in Dayton.  Missouri and Minnesota are the other at-large participants in today’s Opening Round games. The revolving door, known as the 2014 bubble, continues to churn.

Nothing new at the top of the bracket: Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, and Syracuse retain No. 1 seeds.  In fact, there weren’t many changes – other than some regional adjustments – to the first quadrant (Top 4 seeds).  St. Louis did drop a seed line, with surging North Carolina now the final No. 4 seed (No. 16 on the s-curve).

Iowa continues to slide a bit, having lost three straight and 4 of 6 games.  The Hawkeyes are not in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament at this point, but they are at risk of finding themselves in the 7-9 seed range without reversing course.  A rather weak non-conference schedule isn’t helping: Iowa’s best non-league wins are Xavier, UTEP, and Notre Dame.

Buckle up for a busy weekend of college hoops.  Championship Week is right around the corner.

UPDATED: February 28, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament.  You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.   For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected.  The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Arkansas vs. Oregon Midwest Region
  • Missouri vs. Minnesota South Region
  • ALABAMA STATE vs. UTAH VALLEY East Region
  • WEBER STATE vs. HIGH POINT Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

SOUTH – Memphis                            WEST Anaheim                              
Orlando San Diego
1) FLORIDA 1) ARIZONA
16) DAVIDSON 16) ROBERT MORRIS
8) VCU 8) SMU
9) GONZAGA 9) Pittsburgh
Spokane Spokane
5) Louisville 5) Kentucky
12) Missouri / Minnesota 12) BYU
4) VIRGINIA 4) Iowa State
13) BELMONT 13) NORTH DAKOTA ST
San Antonio Raleigh
6) UCLA 6) Ohio State
11) Oklahoma State 11) Saint Joseph’s
3) San Diego State 3) Duke
14)  GEORGIA STATE 14) S.F. AUSTIN
Buffalo Milwaukee
7) Kansas State 7) Stanford
10) Xavier 10) Baylor
2) MICHIGAN 2) CREIGHTON
15) VERMONT 15) UC-IRVINE
EAST – New York MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Buffalo St. Louis
1) SYRACUSE 1) WICHITA STATE
16) UTAH VALLEY / ALABAMA ST 16) WEBER ST / HIGH POINT
8) George Washington 8) Iowa
9) Arizona State 9) Memphis
Orlando San Diego
5) Texas 5) SAINT LOUIS
12) HARVARD 12) SOUTHERN MISS
4) CINCINNATI 4) North Carolina
13) DELAWARE 13) WESTERN MICHIGAN
Raleigh San Antonio
6) Oklahoma 6) NEW MEXICO
11) GREEN BAY 11) Arkansas / Oregon
3) Villanova 3) Michigan State
14) IONA 14) MERCER
Milwaukee St. Louis
7) Massachusetts 7) Connecticut
10) Colorado 10) California
2) Wisconsin 2) KANSAS
15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY 15) NC-CENTRAL

NOTES on the BRACKET: Florida is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Wichita State, and Syracuse.

Last Five teams in (at large): Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Missouri, Oregon, Minnesota

First Five teams out (at large): Providence, Tennessee, Georgetown, Richmond, Dayton

Next five teams out (at large): Nebraska, LSU, Florida State, St. John’s, Marquette

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Pac 12 (7): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Atlantic 10 (5): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, George Washington, Saint Joseph’s

ACC (5): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas

Big East (3): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Southern Miss (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Western Michigan (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Harvard (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), High Point (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Alabama State (SWAC)

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