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Bracketology: Florida in driver’s seat for overall No. 1 seed

Mar 10, 2014, 8:30 AM EST

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AP Photo/Phil Sandlin

With its victory over Kentucky – and Arizona’s loss at Oregon – the Florida Gators are in the driver’s seat for the overall No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament.  Regardless, the Gators will be the top seed in the South Region with opening round games in nearby Orlando.  The remaining No. 1 seeds as we begin Championship Week: Arizona (West), Wichita State (Midwest) and Villanova (East).

At this point, the first three No. 1 seeds appear to be locked-in.  Which leaves us one spot for three or four teams.  At least that’s how it appears today.  The contenders include Villanova (as noted above), Kansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Virginia is still in the hunt, but its journey became much tougher after Sunday’s loss at Maryland.  Achieving a No. 1 seed with eight losses would be something new, but few teams in history have played Kansas’ schedule.  If Michigan wins the Big Ten tournament, the Wolverines would have a legitimate argument.  They possess a higher number of NCAA-level wins than Villanova – due to the strength of the Big Ten as compared to the Big East.  Wisconsin’s non-conference performance – with victories over Florida and Virginia – would help the Badgers’ case if they find the winner’s circle in Indianapolis next Sunday.

MOREFlorida, Wichita State are still sitting atop NBCSports.com’s Top 25

We’ll be updating the bracket every day this week as automatic qualifiers arrive and conference tournaments continue.  Teams that have clinched automatic berths are listed in ALL CAPS – with the exception of teams like BYU and UCLA.

The bubble remains a work in progress.  Nebraska grabbed a spot after beating Wisconsin on Sunday. Xavier, Tennessee, and BYU join the Huskers at the First Four in Dayton.  It’s a big week for those teams and several others who are just above the last four at-larges.  We’ll have to see how it plays out.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Nebraska vs. Tennessee | Midwest Region
  • Xavier vs. BYU | South Region
  • Alabama State vs. Wofford | East Region
  • Weber State vs. COASTAL CAROLINA | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

SOUTH – Memphis                       WEST - Anaheim
Orlando San Diego
1) Florida 1) Arizona
16) Robert Morris 16) Utah Valley
8) Kansas State 8) George Washington
9) Arizona State 9) Gonzaga
Spokane San Diego
5) Ohio State 5) Oklahoma
12) BYU / Xavier 12) Toledo
4) Louisville 4) Michigan State
13) S.F. Austin 13) North Dakota State
Buffalo San Antonio
6) New Mexico 6) Baylor
11) Dayton 11) Stanford
3) Syracuse 3) Creighton
14) Boston University 14) MERCER
Milwaukee Raleigh
7) VCU 7) Memphis
10) SMU 10) Saint Joseph’s
2) Wisconsin 2) Virginia
15) UC-Irvine 15) Stony Brook
EAST – New York MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Buffalo St. Louis
1) Villanova 1) WICHITA STATE
16) Wofford / Alabama State 16) Weber State / CO CAROLINA
8) Oklahoma State 8) Kentucky
9) Iowa 9) Oregon
Spokane Orlando
5) North Carolina 5) Texas
12) Louisiana Tech 12) HARVARD
4) San Diego State 4) Duke
13) Delaware 13) Iona
San Antonio Raleigh
6) Massachusetts 6) Saint Louis
11) Arkansas 11) Tennessee / Nebraska
3) Iowa State 3) Cincinnati
14) EASTERN KENTUCKY 14) Georgia State
Milwaukee St. Louis
7) Connecticut 7) UCLA
10) Colorado 10) Pittsburgh
2) Michigan 2) Kansas
15) Wright State 15) NC-Central

NOTES on the BRACKET: Florida remains the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Wichita State, and Villanova.

Last Five teams in (at large): Stanford, Nebraska, Xavier, Tennessee, BYU

First Five teams out (at large): California, Georgetown, Minnesota, Missouri, St. John’s

Next five teams out (at large): Providence, Southern Miss, Green Bay, Florida State, Illinois

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon, Colorado

Atlantic 10 (6): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, George Washington, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska

ACC (5): Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee

Big East (3): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Louisiana Tech (C-USA), EASTERN KENTUCKY (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Wright State (Horizon), Wofford (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Toledo (MAC), MERCER (A-Sun), HARVARD (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Stony Brook (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Alabama State (SWAC)

  1. rzon250 - Mar 10, 2014 at 8:41 AM

    It’s shocking to me to exclude Syracuse from a possibility of a 1 seed. Kansas has eight losses and not all were to top-flight competition. Wisconsin also has played it’s way off of consideration, unless they win the Big 10 tourney. Syracuse as a 3, being 27-4, is lunacy. Not a chance there it where they stand in the committee’s eyes, especially watching them rebound – with a healthy Grant, they beat UVA and GT no question.

    • smosit - Mar 10, 2014 at 10:19 AM

      dude, home losses to BC and GT doomed Cuse from the 1 seed contention. eye test (shaky, last possesion wins over garbage teams) might keep them off the 2 line.

  2. beelza - Mar 10, 2014 at 9:50 AM

    If that East bracket holds, Michigan is a final four team in back-to-back years.

  3. shockertalk - Mar 10, 2014 at 1:57 PM

    More changes coming.
    Kansas may drift downward since Embiid may not come back. Bad luck, eh?
    Michigan State may drift up if they get their chemistry back….maybe.
    Villanova has YET to beat Creighton, they could both end up #2 seeds!

  4. shockertalk - Mar 11, 2014 at 1:22 AM

    (reposted from another blog)

    Is Wichita State a team of D-E-S-T-I-N-Y ??

    2011: Kentucky loses to eventual champ UCONN.
    2012: Louisville loses to eventual champ Kentucky
    2013: Wichita State loses to eventual champ Louisville.
    2014: Who loses to eventual champ Wichita State????

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