Mar 18, 2014, 12:55 PM EST
We all remember the Cinderella stories from March Madness. The George Masons, Hamptons, and Northern Iowas, these are the teams that can ease a smile out of the most hardened and jaded NCAA antagonist. We love the NCAA tournament because these sleeper squads make the postseason seem democratic.
The selection committee, sequestered in various hotel suites, is the sporting equivalent of the Wizard of Oz, but Cinderellas level the field, and we’ve listed the six teams, all higher than a seven seed, that have the potential to make the tournament’s second weekend.
No. 13 Tulsa (vs. No. 4 UCLA; then either No. 5 VCU/No. 12 Stephen F. Austin): A first-round match-up against UCLA, a team that rendered the vaunted Arizona defense toothless, appears catastrophically poor for Danny Manning’s squad, but the Golden Hurricane is also a sound defensive squad, one that forces turnovers at a pretty rapid rate (20.4 percent). The team also keeps opponents off the glass, and UCLA isn’t known for securing additional possessions. Should Tulsa advance to the round of 32, the team also matches well with either VCU or Stephen F. Austin.
A large percentage of Tulsa’ scoring comes from the free throw line, and the Lumberjacks foul quite frequently (52.5 percent defensive free throw rate). VCU defends ferociously and shoots a fair number of threes, but since the Rams will likely miss guard Melvin Johnson, VCU will be without their most efficient perimeter option (39.5 percent). Tulsa can withstand VCU’s trademark ball pressure because the Golden Hurricane have a sticky handle in the midst of ball hawks (16.6 turnover rate, ranked within Ken Pomeroy’s top sixty).
No. 14 Western Michigan (vs. No. 3 Syracuse; then either No. 6 Ohio State/No. 11 Dayton): America should be ready to meet Shayne Whittington, Western Michigan’s 6-foot-11 center. The big makes 55.9 percent of his twos, and while WMU hasn’t played Syracuse during the past two seasons, the Broncos have faced a very similar defense. During WMU’s four games against Eastern Michigan, a team coached by ex-Cuse assistant Rob Murphy and one which uses a 2-3 zone, Whittington made 53 percent of his attempts within the arc.
Both of their second round opponents aren’t great at defending the interior — Ohio State and Dayton allow teams to make close to 50 percent of those shots — which is a bonus for a Western Michigan team which is one of the best at converting their twos, ranking twelfth nationally. The other two Broncos who use a high percentage of WMU’s attempts, David Brown and Connar Tava, are efficient up to 19 feet from the basket.
No. 9 George Washington (vs. No. 8 Memphis; then either No. 1 Virginia/No. 16 Coastal Carolina): Memphis is not a good match-up for the defensive-oriented Colonials. The Tigers turn the ball over on nearly 20 percent of their possessions (that’s bad), don’t get to the free throw line (not great), and are a poor perimeter shooting team (another box checked) — all attributes which are pluses on George Washington’s defensive resume.
Assuming the second round tilt is against Virginia, Tony Bennett’s pack-line defense would be an interesting test for the Colonials. The return of Kethan Savage (and if he can play meaningful minutes) and the emergence of Nemanja Mikic are both crucial for a Sweet 16 birth. Lacking the presence of another perimeter threat, opponents could concentrate solely on Mikic last season, but the addition of Maurice Creek has helped boost Mikic’s clear looks.
No. 10 Saint Joseph’s (vs. No. 7 Connecticut; then either No. 2 Villanova/No. 15 Milwaukee): St. Joe’s Langston Galloway is coming off a torrid shooting performance in the Atlantic 10 tournament, but the team’s frontcourt will be the focus against UConn. Halil Kanacevic, Ronald Roberts, and DeAndre Bembry should take advantage of the foul-prone Husky bigs — DeAndre Daniels is the only forward who plays substantial minutes and does not accumulate more than six or more fouls per 40 minutes (an issue for both Amida Brimah and Philip Nolan). The likelier second-round game will be against Villanova, and the ensuing Holy War rematch, one dominated by the Wildcats earlier this season, could be a classic.
No. 11 Nebraska (vs. No. 6 Baylor; then either No. 3 Creighton/No. 14 Louisiana-Lafayette): Even though Nebraska isn’t an offensive juggernaut, Baylor’s defense provides large gaps for point production — only one other at-large squad had a worse defensive efficiency rate than Scott Drew’s team (North Carolina State). Even though Elfrid Payton and Shawn Long pose a potential threat, Creighton should emerge from that first-round tilt. Nebraska was embarrassed by the Bluejays earlier this season, but this is a much different Huskers squad (for starters, Deverell Biggs is no longer bogarting shots) and the emergence of Terran Petteway is a match-up problem for CU.
No. 14 Mercer (vs. No. 3 Duke; then either No. 6 Massachusetts/No. 11 Iowa/No. 11 Tennessee): Mercer is the epitome of a Giant Killer. The Bears shoot a high percentage both within and beyond the arc, and those attempts are spread amongst a handful of players, each of whom either make a plethora of twos or threes (Bud Thomas and Anthony White, however, make both). There is an offensive balance to this team — no one Bear truly dominates touches — which could be an problem for a Duke team possessing some defensive issues.
Duke traditionally defends the three-point arc well, but two-point field goals are easy to achieve. Unfortunately for Mike Krzyzsewski, this is an even weaker defensive team than the one which lost to Lehigh in the 2012 tournament. Iowa and UMass also have suspect defenses, and while Tennessee is defined by their stingy leanings, the Vols don’t force many turnovers. Against a team that doesn’t miss often, a failure to pressure the ball and simply allow them to run their offense could prove disastrous.
Mar 5, 2015, 8:53 AM EST
These eight teams can steal an automatic bid in conferences that will get at-large bids.
Mar 5, 2015, 1:22 AM EST
Neither the Panthers nor the Tigers did themselves any favors Wednesday night, with Pittsburgh’s home loss being the costlier of the two defeats.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:59 PM EST
All of Wednesday’s relevant bubble info can be found right here.
Joe O’Shea’s off-balance three-pointer forces overtime in Bryant’s double OT win over Sacred Heart (VIDEO)
Mar 4, 2015, 11:34 PM EST
Thanks to O’Shea the Bulldogs advanced to the NEC semifinals, where they’ll take on Robert Morris.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:22 PM EST
That didn’t take long.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:38 PM EST
Colson and Demetrius Jackson scored 11 second-half points apiece in Notre Dame’s win at Louisville.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:03 PM EST
D’Angelo Russell scored 28 to lead the Buckeyes, but none of his points were wilder than the two scored by Thompson on this play.
Mar 4, 2015, 5:59 PM EST
Kentucky head coach John Calipari is one of 15 coaches still in contention for this honor.
Mar 4, 2015, 5:13 PM EST
Kaminsky is one of five seniors on the list, and Gonzaga is the only program with two representatives.
Mar 4, 2015, 4:20 PM EST
With the higher seeds hosting in the first three rounds of the Postseason NIT, the four one-seeds could potentially not leave campus before the semifinals at Madison Square Garden.
Mar 4, 2015, 3:40 PM EST
The most recent title odds from Bovada.
Mar 4, 2015, 2:25 PM EST
There are a lot of big bubbles games tonight.
Mar 4, 2015, 1:26 PM EST
These are the small league favorites that can win a game in the NCAA tournament.
Mar 4, 2015, 11:51 AM EST
Hank Gathers died on the court during the WCC tournament.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:42 AM EST
Perry Ellis suffered a nasty looking knee injury last night.
Mar 4, 2015, 10:15 AM EST
I’ve never seen this happen before.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:41 AM EST
Justin Anderson has been out for more than three weeks after fracturing a finger.
Mar 4, 2015, 9:00 AM EST
Two strong teams enter the Valley Conference Tournament with numerous others trying to enter the frame.
Mar 4, 2015, 12:26 AM EST
Kentucky is learning how to win games when they don’t play well. That’s scary.
- Potential NCAA tournament bid thieves bubble teams should be rooting against 0
- Bubble Banter: Why LSU losing is bad news for Texas A&M 2
- Bonzie Colson continues hot streak as No. 12 Notre Dame wins at No. 16 Louisville 1
- Potential Cinderellas you want to win their automatic bid 2
- Virginia’s Justin Anderson could return as early as Saturday 0
- Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Preview and Postseason Awards 0
- No. 9 Kansas rallies to beat No. 20 West Virginia in OT but injury to Perry Ellis is major concern 1
- College Basketball Talk’s Latest Top 25: How far will Wisconsin and Gonzaga fall? (24)
- You Make the Call: Was Texas guard Isaiah Taylor fouled on this drive? (16)
- Report: Former Louisville guard Chris Jones charged with rape, sodomy (13)
- Mike Krzyzewski refuses comment on Rasheed Sulaimon sexual assault allegations (10)
- Vanderbilt head coach Kevin Stallings apologizes for postgame outburst directed at freshman guard Wade Baldwin IV (9)